Looking at both his data and film.....if you were a GM, could you take Reddish in the lottery? Today? And if so, where would you feel comfortable?
I just look at the landscape of players, production and potential and am I crazy to think no mock draft should have him in the top 10? And it’s a semi stretch to keep him in the lottery?
In the context of all drafts since 2011, it is horrifically bad on all levels. I have 393 prospects charted.....I’m still missing around half of the also ran second rounders from 2016-18 but every possession data 1st and 2nd rounder from 2011-2016....All 1st rounders from 2017-2018.....these are his actual, honest to god ranks.....
Per 100 possessions:
Game score: 387/393
NET game score: 371/393
Positional difference: 359/393
I get he has interesting physical gifts but how do people who fill out mock drafts ignore the above? He is historically bad statistically on a per 100 possession basis.
There are some high picks in those ballpark areas above and none have broken through to be much at the NBA level......
Lottery picks in that lower tier of game score ranks:
Austin Rivers, Jaylen Brown, Marquesse Chriss, Zach LaVine, Brandon Knight, Harrison Barnes, Kevin Knox, Nik Stauskas.....and shield your eyes, Collin Sexton.
It’s just a huge red flag, based on the drafts available with college possession data. It’s only 10 ish players but it’s 10 players from only 112 possible lottery selections (9%) and the best case is pretty ugly out of that group. Reddish has more unique circumstances, so maybe he bucks that trend but on a possession data basis, my calculation honestly rates him near an UDFA. He won’t be that but it speaks to how unwilling some people are to change their mind about someone, even in the face of a player completely flaming out as a freshman and then going pro.
I see Reddish as a late first early second kind of guy at this point. I think he has real potential to be a useful 3&D guy, but with basically no creation upside on offense and limited versatility on defense (he doesn't have the mental makeup to play the 4 defensively), it would be crazy to use a lottery pick on him.