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2019 Series #5 | Indians @ Royals | April 12th, 13th, and 14th

Andrew Scheid

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What was his average fastball speed in April only for the past three years?

A: the sample size is too small to definitively claim he’s lost juice

B: even its its small sample, stacked up against the past 2-3 years, it’s not that drastic of a dip.

On every level, this will need to be revisited in June or July before making sweeping Sky is Falling proclamations about the nature of Kluber’s velocity and stuff


Courtesy of Fangraphs


The correlation in 2018 between his dip in velocity and increase in giving up hard contact is extremely troubling.

Granted, it's a small sample size, but according to Baseball Savant, he is in 17th percentile in fastball velocity, and the 26th percentile for hard hit contact.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/corey-kluber-446372?stats=career-r-pitching-mlb
 

JDailey23

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Teams saw the writing on the wall because of a less than half mph drop in his fastball from 2017-2018?

That is...a take, for sure.
Big picture AZ. Dont skew the numbers for your argument.
That’s almost 3mph in 5 years bud.
 

KilgoreTrout

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Big picture AZ. Dont skew the numbers for your argument.
That’s almost 3mph in 5 years bud.
Question is: when does the dip in speed become critical? The drop from 93 to 92 has happened rather rapidly, over the last year. Over that period of time, in particular, the shellings have become much more frequent.
 

ajz20

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Courtesy of Fangraphs


The correlation in 2018 between his dip in velocity and increase in giving up hard contact is extremely troubling.

Granted, it's a small sample size, but according to Baseball Savant, he is in 17th percentile in fastball velocity, and the 26th percentile for hard hit contact.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/corey-kluber-446372?stats=career-r-pitching-mlb
Wow look at all the data. Someone tell this guy the tradition of RCF early tribe talk is mostly a fight over how many people attend games in April and May when it 45 degrees or less and the team is off to a 500 start.
 

AZ_

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You asked if I was making up a velocity drip, which is why I provided numbers corroborating my claim.

I'm attaching a comprehensive article from an excellent writer raising other concerns about him going forward.

I'd recommend reading it before shitting on fans for stating the obvious.

https://everybodyhatescleveland.wordpress.com/2019/04/04/corey-klubers-most-troubling-issue/
This article completely marginalizes your original point and focuses on completely different rationale.

Teams didn’t “see the writing on the wall” because his fastball dropped within any margin of error from one year over the other.

It was a shitty take, a perfect microcosm of the hindsight fan looking to incite with a shit take.

It’s not brave to come on here and brag about how you knew it all along after every bad start, or say stupid things like a “colon-trade” which I’m not exactly sure what that means but he was dealt for one Top 100 prospect at the time (20 fucking years ago).


Think we’re a little done with that bullshit.
 

Andrew Scheid

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This article completely marginalizes your original point and focuses on completely different rationale.

Teams didn’t “see the writing on the wall” because his fastball dropped within any margin of error from one year over the other.

It was a shitty take, a perfect microcosm of the hindsight fan looking to incite with a shit take.

It’s not brave to come on here and brag about how you knew it all along after every bad start, or say stupid things like a “colon-trade” which I’m not exactly sure what that means but he was dealt for one Top 100 prospect at the time (20 fucking years ago).


Think we’re a little done with that bullshit.

My God are you an insufferable asshole.

The article clearly stated the drop in velocity and increase in hard hit contact; the two reasons I cited in an earlier post about why Kluber was starting to decline.

Further, I cited Baseball Savant in another post showing his current standing in velocity and hard hit contact for 2019.

In terms of the Colon-type offer, I cited it as an example of the type of haul the Indians were reportedly searching for this offseason (blue-chip prospects with years of cost control).

Not only couldn't they get multiple high-end prospects, they couldn't get one according to Ken Rosenthal:

"According to sources, the Indians wanted at least one of the Reds’ top two prospects — infielder Nick Senzel and outfielder Taylor Trammell — for right-hander Corey Kluber. But rather than trade from the top of their farm system, the Reds have parted with players who are less than sure things."

https://theathletic.com/777766/2019/01/20/rosenthal-the-reds-plan-for-sonny-gray-big-ideas-from-scott-boras-what-the-dodgers-are-thinking-more-notes/

The ol' "thanks but no thanks." Clearly, rival teams saw something less than ideal in projecting Kluber's production for the next three yeas on his deal.

Not impressed with some rube like me spreading heresy? How about venerable reporter Jonah Keri?
Here's a quote from an article he posted before the season about his player rankings:

"It’s crushing to have to drop the two-time Cy Young winner from the list. But as one National League talent evaluator said about the soon-to-turn-33-year-old-ace: “Big velo drop in September, workload and age concerns, owed real money (3/52 with escalators that have kicked in).” Cleveland shopped Kluber this winter, but couldn’t get anything close to what the team hoped to land."

https://theathletic.com/874585/2019/03/19/keri-the-2019-mlb-trade-value-rankings-part-1/

Are Rosenthal and Keri "hindsight fans"?
 

AZ_

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My God are you an insufferable asshole.

The article clearly stated the drop in velocity and increase in hard hit contact; the two reasons I cited in an earlier post about why Kluber was starting to decline.

Further, I cited Baseball Savant in another post showing his current standing in velocity and hard hit contact for 2019.
Again, the marginal drop between 17 and 18 resulted in a 3rd place Cy Young finish.

To nonsensically, proudly proclaim teams "see the writing on the wall" was predicated on little other than whining about a bad start.


In terms of the Colon-type offer, I cited it as an example of the type of haul the Indians were reportedly searching for this offseason (blue-chip prospects with years of cost control).
And you were wrong. The Indians got one blue-chip prospect from that deal.

Once again, the hindsight bias is rather strong here.

Not only couldn't they get multiple high-end prospects, they couldn't get one according to Ken Rosenthal:

"According to sources, the Indians wanted at least one of the Reds’ top two prospects — infielder Nick Senzel and outfielder Taylor Trammell — for right-hander Corey Kluber. But rather than trade from the top of their farm system, the Reds have parted with players who are less than sure things."

https://theathletic.com/777766/2019/01/20/rosenthal-the-reds-plan-for-sonny-gray-big-ideas-from-scott-boras-what-the-dodgers-are-thinking-more-notes/

The ol' "thanks but no thanks." Clearly, rival teams saw something less than ideal in projecting Kluber's production for the next three yeas on his deal.
Okay. This doesn't address your point, this is simply the Reds unwillingness to part with their top players.


Not impressed with some rube like me spreading heresy? How about venerable reporter Jonah Keri?
Here's a quote from an article he posted before the season about his player rankings:

"It’s crushing to have to drop the two-time Cy Young winner from the list. But as one National League talent evaluator said about the soon-to-turn-33-year-old-ace: “Big velo drop in September, workload and age concerns, owed real money (3/52 with escalators that have kicked in).” Cleveland shopped Kluber this winter, but couldn’t get anything close to what the team hoped to land."

https://theathletic.com/874585/2019/03/19/keri-the-2019-mlb-trade-value-rankings-part-1/

Are Rosenthal and Keri "hindsight fans"?
He was pitching through an injury in September, as we remember.

There is little more annoying than "fans" coming in here to proclaim how they knew it all along in the middle of shit when someone has a bad start.

This crap hindsight bias is the same shit we've heard before, often in April.

I think 2017 was the last time, but would have to go back and check the game logs.
 

Urban

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If the Indians were "desperate" to deal Kluber and were super concerned with his underlying metrics, don't you think they would've settled for a lesser package from the Reds, Padres, etc. ? Remember, they shopped Trevor Bauer too. They held out for a Chris Sale type return for either and didn't get it.

The Indians aren't going to trade Kluber for "pennies on the dollar" at the deadline to "get out of the contract" that they can buy out for $1m

If you had led with the stats, quotes, graphs, etc. (instead of hyperbolic, hindsight hot takes) you probably would have been met with less snarky replies.
 

Out of the Rafters at the Q

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Again, the marginal drop between 17 and 18 resulted in a 3rd place Cy Young finish.

To nonsensically, proudly proclaim teams "see the writing on the wall" was predicated on little other than whining about a bad start.




And you were wrong. The Indians got one blue-chip prospect from that deal.

Once again, the hindsight bias is rather strong here.



Okay. This doesn't address your point, this is simply the Reds unwillingness to part with their top players.




He was pitching through an injury in September, as we remember.

There is little more annoying than "fans" coming in here to proclaim how they knew it all along in the middle of shit when someone has a bad start.

This crap hindsight bias is the same shit we've heard before, often in April.

I think 2017 was the last time, but would have to go back and check the game logs.
Flash in the pan :chuckle:
 

The Wizard of Moz

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What was his average fastball speed in April only for the past three years?

A: the sample size is too small to definitively claim he’s lost juice

B: even its its small sample, stacked up against the past 2-3 years, it’s not that drastic of a dip.

On every level, this will need to be revisited in June or July before making sweeping Sky is Falling proclamations about the nature of Kluber’s velocity and stuff
What don’t you get? There won’t even be a June or July after we trade him for pennies on the dollar
 

Chris

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April 15th and this section is already borderline unreadable with all of the bullshit arguing and name calling.

New record? It’s probably a new record.
It’s pretty bad. Has been forever though. Not saying I dig the tone of his original post but this guy came in with actual data and facts to back up what he was saying whether anyone agrees with the crux of his argument or not. Not really sure he deserves to be legit ridiculed. What do I know though.
 

The Wizard of Moz

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He damn near won the CY Young last year bud.
This is the most mystifying part to me

The way people post about Kluber you’d think he had a high 3 ERA last year and had trouble consistently making it 6 innings

Everyone just wants to be the one to have ‘called it’ on Kluber’s demise so everyone is tripping over their own dicks to predict it. But it’s been going on for multiple years now and Kluber keeps finishing in the top 3 for Cy Young voting so.... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 

The Wizard of Moz

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It’s pretty bad. Has been forever though. Not saying I dig the tone of his original post but this guy came in with actual data and facts to back up what he was saying whether anyone agrees with the crux of his argument or not. Not really sure he deserves to be legit ridiculed. What do I know though.
The original post was just over the top doom and gloom. The Indians are not trading Corey Kluber for pennies on the dollar and they weren’t desperate to move him this offseason

He did back his claim for Kluber’s decline, but he’s done nothing to back his claim of Kluber is going to be gone for fire sale prices. Nothing this front office has literally ever done would indicate that is on the radar

And as far as desperate to move Kluber, he himself refutes this point in his last post with his source for what we were asking for from the Reds. Doesn’t sound desperate to move him to me. Sounds like would move him if blown away with an offer
 
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