How is he marginally better? His floor nearly represents Baker's best year.
I don't get this argument.
The argument basically boils down to either the Browns must have a HoF caliber QB, or there is no point in moving on from Baker, who is consistently in the bottom third of QBs in the NFL. This is a sunk-cost fallacy as well as a gamblers mentality, passing up what amounts to a sure thing, a consistent baseline of higher level play, for the possibility that their 3rd Year QB might play as well as he did in his rookie year by his 4th Year.
Baker's rookie year, for which he was properly regarded as about the best rookie QB ever, was about a below average season for Stafford. And Stafford usually has to play with a team even worse than the 2018 Browns (The Lions D has ranked in the top half of the NFL once in the past five years, their O-Line is the same story).
People here have repeatedly said that if Baker Mayfield played as well as his rookie year for the rest of his career that the Browns would be a perennial playoff team. And they would, because he had a solid performance with a 2:1 TD/INT ratio, with the turnovers actually being less if one takes out that one bad game. Baker was good.
The issue here is that Stafford plays at that level, or better, every year. Meanwhile, the Browns have spent two years now hoping that Mayfield will get back to that level; something that is not guaranteed at all.
Why should the Browns be content with starting a QB that might be as good as Matt Stafford at his worst, when one can simply have the baseline play Stafford offers, or better, and greatly increase the Browns' chances of making the playoffs every year?
Moreover, Stafford has never had a line as good as the Browns' current O-Line, nor nothing near the running game. There is every reason to think that with a competent head coach, and an offense as loaded with talent as the Browns, that Stafford would significantly improve; akin to his best years in Detroit which were high-end, Pro-Bowl performances.
People have been making the mistake of comparing the two in uneven terms: Bakers best vs. Stafford's worst. Not only is that a rather unfair comparison, but it actually only proves the point. Comparison has to be done by the mean, the average of Baker's performances vs. the same for Stafford's. At that the numbers tell the same story: Stafford has consistently performed at a level that represents Mayfield's best, at worst, and well over-performed Baker at best. Stafford's mean would significantly improve the Browns' level of QB play and result in a much more balanced and lethal offense.
If Mayfield's best is Stafford's floor then how would Stafford only be a marginal improvement?
And cost is not a consideration moving forward, after next season, even if Baker continues to be merely a game-manager, he is going to command near Stafford salary. Finally, the Browns window with this team is the next 2-3 years or so before they may have to reload. How many more seasons can they wait for Baker to be more than a game-manager? And if, a big if, Stafford becomes available, how often does a chance to grab a above average QB, sometime Pro-Bowler, occur?
Stafford will turn 33 on this coming Super Bowl Sunday. His current floor likely has nowhere to go but down.