2020 Series 3 | Indians @ Twins | July 30-31 & August 1-2

[CATS44]

I think we are looking at the pitcher in front of us and saying "This is who he is."

The difference is--that analysis is being made based off years of track record, as well as a look at what he's actually doing currently. Things like velocity, pitch movement, and peripherals, that are good indicators of future success.

To me, all of those things hold more water than basic stats compiled over 4 innings. I wasn't ready to anoint Ryan Merritt a Cy Yong pitcher after his postseason start, because even though the basic stats show he shut out one of the best lineups in baseball in one of the biggest games of the year, anyone with eyes could see that he likely wasn't good enough to be consistently successful at the MLB level.

This.

Of course Bieber or any young pitcher/player isnt the player he will be when he first arrives. (Willie May's, etc excepted)

But we see this every freaking year, fans base assumptions on what players do in the first month of the season.

And we tend to look at everything in a vacuum. My guess is right now on a Twins forum multiple fans are bemoaning the Twins lack of offensive production, talking about all their bad at bats last night. (Sound familiar?)

But NOBODY was gonna hit Bieber and Karinchak last night. And the same with Berrios while he was in there. Berrios made one lousy pitch last night, an unbelievable gift pitch on an 0-2 count that Frankie put in the seats.

But if Lindor missed that pitch by an eighth of an inch and popped it up, we would be bemoaning another bad night at the plate.

Bieber isnt gonna pitch to a negative FIP this year. Karinchak isnt gonna replicate Mariano Rivera this year. JRam isnt gonna have a .500+ BABIP this year.

And on the other side, Mercado isnt gonna hit .105 and Lindor isnt gonna hit .207.

We also should not judge a pitcher on his velocity in the first two weeks of a season, even in a weird 2020. If we did that, we would have dumped Kluber in early May in almost every season he ever pitched for us.

Hand may not have it anymore and if he is still 2 MPH off in a few weeks, and cant figure out a way to pitch around that, he wont be closing. But, unless hes hurt, it is way to early to make a definitive judgement. The shortened season doesnt change the way that baseball people evaluate talent.

Looking at our pen, we have three pitchers...Hand, Wittgren, and Perez..with any significant track record of success. That doesnt mean that the others arent good, and maybe be really good....but there is no way of knowing yet, and we are basically in the stretch run.

I'm not willing yet to put the season into the hands of a bunch of untested arms, like Karinchak, Hill, and Maton...until I see what my vets can still do....although I really like what I see from Karinchak and Hill.

 

[AZ_]

I love it because we get to see all these guys who are PITCHERS first--like Bieber and Civale, but the guys who are THROWERS first like Karinchak are having success as well.

I've always been a guy who appreciates someone who succeeds at his craft because of his ability to pitch rather than his arm talent and just ability to throw. Bieber is putting on a clinic, and the way he crosses up batters is absolutely a joy to watch.

Yeah, they're not afraid to go after guys with natural abilities either.

Karinchak was a nobody from Bryant University and got lit in short time in the Cape, had a ton of trouble with his control.

So encouraging to see them continue to hit on guys like this.

 

[Gson]

I love it because we get to see all these guys who are PITCHERS first--like Bieber and Civale, but the guys who are THROWERS first like Karinchak are having success as well.

I've always been a guy who appreciates someone who succeeds at his craft because of his ability to pitch rather than his arm talent and just ability to throw. Bieber is putting on a clinic, and the way he crosses up batters is absolutely a joy to watch.

Being able to throw a 94 mph dart on the outside corner just below the knees is not a fully or exclusively learned ability.. Native ability is still required. What the Indians do is take a guy who has the native ability to find/pound the strike zone and teach them to throw harder while maintaining that command and control they were born with.. Small changes to routine.. physical strengthening without bulking muscle, and the application of physiodynamics is where our team's bread is buttered. Jup will gladly explain some of the physio-mechanics provided you bow down & kiss Bauer's ring.. *(I keeeed)..

Thoughts?..

 

[Gson]

Yeah, they're not afraid to go after guys with natural abilities either.

Karinchak was a nobody from Bryant University and got lit in short time in the Cape, had a ton of trouble with his control.

So encouraging to see them continue to hit on guys like this.

I believe there are at least two more guy like this coming into the middle to upper levels of the Indians minor league system.. Lenny Torres and Carlos Vargas.. Both have the kind of arms that translate extremely well to advance pitching ability.

The only caveat that I see with these two... the truthful idea that starting pitching is more valuable than relief pitching. Both of these guys are and have been groomed to be starters.. to their detriment and to their possible demise as major leaguers, imho..

Thoughts?..

 

[LL3]

I think we are looking at the pitcher in front of us and saying "This is who he is."

The difference is--that analysis is being made based off years of track record, as well as a look at what he's actually doing currently. Things like velocity, pitch movement, and peripherals, that are good indicators of future success.

To me, all of those things hold more water than basic stats compiled over 4 innings. I wasn't ready to anoint Ryan Merritt a Cy Yong pitcher after his postseason start, because even though the basic stats show he shut out one of the best lineups in baseball in one of the biggest games of the year, anyone with eyes could see that he likely wasn't good enough to be consistently successful at the MLB level.

Absolutely this...thoughtful analysis does not fly out the window in a 60 game season.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Being able to throw a 94 mph dart on the outside corner just below the knees is not a fully or exclusively learned ability.. Native ability is still required. What the Indians do is take a guy who has the native ability to find/pound the strike zone and teach them to throw harder while maintaining that command and control they were born with.. Small changes to routine.. physical strengthening without bulking muscle, and the application of physiodynamics is where our team's bread is buttered. Jup will gladly explain some of the physio-mechanics provided you bow down & kiss Bauer's ring.. *(I keeeed)..

Thoughts?..

I think the few of you who keep bringing up Bauer's name and sniping at @jup in every post is incredibly obnoxious.

To give you an actual response, I didn't say what you're responding to. I never claimed being able to throw 94mph on the outside corner is just a learned ability. But there are guys who are more throwers than pitchers, and guys who are more pitchers than throwers. Kluber, Tomlin, Bieber, Civale are in that pitcher mold for me, and those guys have always been my favorites to watch. Give me Greg Maddux over Aroldis Chapman any day.

 

[LL3]

Prisoner of the Moment Pitching...sounds like a great name for my new, geeky baseball podcast.

 

[prf100]

I like him, he is knowledgeable, but adds interesting things......Good player too, now that i know who it is.

Also one of the jerkiest players in recent memory. I hope he sits on a tack!

 

[CATS44]

In seven games, every Tribe starter has gone at least six innings. In six games, no Twins starter has gone more than five.

 

[Lee]

Yeah, they're not afraid to go after guys with natural abilities either.

Karinchak was a nobody from Bryant University and got lit in short time in the Cape, had a ton of trouble with his control.

So encouraging to see them continue to hit on guys like this.

I would say its too early to say they hit on Karinchak, wouldn't you? I know you know more than I, but everyone is saying he still has control issues, but has gotten much better and could walk the bases loaded next outing.

But to me he has looked great.

 

[AZ_]

I would say its too early to say they hit on Karinchak, wouldn't you? I know you know more than I, but everyone is saying he still has control issues, but has gotten much better and could walk the bases loaded next outing.

But to me he has looked great.

Effectively wild, IMO.

The longer he’s with the big league club, the better we can expect him to be.

 

[Derek]

I would say its too early to say they hit on Karinchak, wouldn't you? I know you know more than I, but everyone is saying he still has control issues, but has gotten much better and could walk the bases loaded next outing.

But to me he has looked great.

He has control issues, hence why he walked 5 guys per 9 last year.

However, he struck out 22 guys per 9, so you kind of live with it because that's some special shit.

 

[sportscoach]

Well Cam Hill and Karinchak both got Saves and both looked solid doing it. We need guys to step up out there and so far so good!

So far between summer and the regular season. Karinchak only had one bad outing. So I am hoping some of the control issues are at least mostly non existing for him.

Hand i do not trust until he can show me he can go most days under control and getting the outs.

 

[Lee]

He has control issues, hence why he walked 5 guys per 9 last year.

However, he struck out 22 guys per 9, so you kind of live with it because that's some special shit.

Holy shit, 22 per 9? What was the top relivers K per 9 last few years in the majors?

 

[Derek]

Holy shit, 22 per 9? What was the top relivers K per 9 last few years in the majors?

Only two guys have cracked 16 in the last two years. Aroldis Chapman in '18 (16.31) and Josh Hader last year (16.42).