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The Reds (14-15) come in for a weekend series as the white-hot Indians return home after a wildly successful 6-1 road trip to Chicago and KC. The Indians are back on top in the A.L. Central and are the hottest team in baseball having won 8 of 10. Nobody else has won more than 7.
These teams are moving in opposite directions. The Reds got out to a fast start at 7-3 but have since gone 7-12. They are 10-7 at home and 4-8 on the road. So both home field and recent momentum favor the Tribe.
On top of that, Joey Votto is out for a month with a fractured thumb. Votto is not having a great season, hitting .226/.730, so you might not think that's too significant. But in the Reds 2-1 series win over the Tribe in mid-April Votto went 7-for-11 with three doubles and a home run. I don't care what his season numbers are - I'm very happy that bat won't be in the lineup this weekend and I'm sure the Indians' pitchers agree.
The Reds have been a very good offensive team so far, ranking 2nd in the N.L. in wRC+ and 3rd in offensive WAR. But without Votto those rankings take a hit. They still have Nick Castellanos (.324/1.1008) and Jesse Winker (.359/1.063) in the lineup so they are not toothless by any means. Winker is hitting .418/1.291 against right-handed pitching and .390 on the road so he's going to be major problem. Tyler Naquin is hanging in there at .260/.882 but he has cooled off considerably in the last four weeks since his high point of .333/1.363 on April 10.
Defensively the Reds rank 10th in the N.L. in WAR. In terms of team pitching they rank 10th in WAR and 11th in SIERA so they're much better at scoring runs than preventing them. The starters rank 6th while the bullpen is 14th in SIERA. Their bullpen ERA is an abysmal 5.66, last in the National League.
The key for the Indians is to not let Winker and Castellano beat them while staying patient at the plate and running up the Reds' starters' pitch counts and get them out of there as early as possible so as to bring the bullpen into play. The Indians have been the best late-inning offense in baseball while the Reds have the worst bullpen, so if our starters can keep the game close, tied, or ahead after six innings I love our chances.
The matchups:
Friday - Zach Plesac v. Wade Miley (L). Miley (3-2, 2.67) will the the fourth lefty starter the Indians have faced in the last five games. The 34-year-old went five innings against the Indians in Cincy last month, allowing 4 earned runs, three of them coming on a home run by Roberto Perez. That was his worst start of the season as he was very effective in his other four. His longest start was six innings. The Indians got to a very good lefty yesterday in Danny Duffy for three runs; it would be great if they could do the same against Miley and get him out of the game before the 6th inning.
Saturday - Aaron Civale vs. Luis Castillo (R). Castillo is struggling at 1-3, 6.07. He only made it past the fifth inning once in six starts and has allowed 40 hits in 29.2 innings. He's averaging five innings per start so this is another opportunity to get four innings or more against the Reds' bullpen.
Sunday - Hentges against Tyler Mahle (R). Mahle is 1-1, 3.23. His ERA after five starts was 1.75 but he got lit up for six earned runs in five innings in his last start against the Cubs. He'll be looking to bounce back against the Tribe.
With the White Sox playing the Royals this weekend the Indians have a chance to add to their division lead if they can win two or three against the Reds, who are 4-8 on the road and missing one of their top run producers. This season has seen a lot of parity (or mediocrity) so far, with 17 of the 30 teams within two games of .500.
After 30 games 27 of the 30 teams are either in first place or within four games of first place. The exceptions are the Twins (6 games out), the Tigers (9 games) and the Rockies (6 games). I'm definitely not counting the Twins out yet so right now everybody is in this except the Tigers and Rockies.
These teams are moving in opposite directions. The Reds got out to a fast start at 7-3 but have since gone 7-12. They are 10-7 at home and 4-8 on the road. So both home field and recent momentum favor the Tribe.
On top of that, Joey Votto is out for a month with a fractured thumb. Votto is not having a great season, hitting .226/.730, so you might not think that's too significant. But in the Reds 2-1 series win over the Tribe in mid-April Votto went 7-for-11 with three doubles and a home run. I don't care what his season numbers are - I'm very happy that bat won't be in the lineup this weekend and I'm sure the Indians' pitchers agree.
The Reds have been a very good offensive team so far, ranking 2nd in the N.L. in wRC+ and 3rd in offensive WAR. But without Votto those rankings take a hit. They still have Nick Castellanos (.324/1.1008) and Jesse Winker (.359/1.063) in the lineup so they are not toothless by any means. Winker is hitting .418/1.291 against right-handed pitching and .390 on the road so he's going to be major problem. Tyler Naquin is hanging in there at .260/.882 but he has cooled off considerably in the last four weeks since his high point of .333/1.363 on April 10.
Defensively the Reds rank 10th in the N.L. in WAR. In terms of team pitching they rank 10th in WAR and 11th in SIERA so they're much better at scoring runs than preventing them. The starters rank 6th while the bullpen is 14th in SIERA. Their bullpen ERA is an abysmal 5.66, last in the National League.
The key for the Indians is to not let Winker and Castellano beat them while staying patient at the plate and running up the Reds' starters' pitch counts and get them out of there as early as possible so as to bring the bullpen into play. The Indians have been the best late-inning offense in baseball while the Reds have the worst bullpen, so if our starters can keep the game close, tied, or ahead after six innings I love our chances.
The matchups:
Friday - Zach Plesac v. Wade Miley (L). Miley (3-2, 2.67) will the the fourth lefty starter the Indians have faced in the last five games. The 34-year-old went five innings against the Indians in Cincy last month, allowing 4 earned runs, three of them coming on a home run by Roberto Perez. That was his worst start of the season as he was very effective in his other four. His longest start was six innings. The Indians got to a very good lefty yesterday in Danny Duffy for three runs; it would be great if they could do the same against Miley and get him out of the game before the 6th inning.
Saturday - Aaron Civale vs. Luis Castillo (R). Castillo is struggling at 1-3, 6.07. He only made it past the fifth inning once in six starts and has allowed 40 hits in 29.2 innings. He's averaging five innings per start so this is another opportunity to get four innings or more against the Reds' bullpen.
Sunday - Hentges against Tyler Mahle (R). Mahle is 1-1, 3.23. His ERA after five starts was 1.75 but he got lit up for six earned runs in five innings in his last start against the Cubs. He'll be looking to bounce back against the Tribe.
With the White Sox playing the Royals this weekend the Indians have a chance to add to their division lead if they can win two or three against the Reds, who are 4-8 on the road and missing one of their top run producers. This season has seen a lot of parity (or mediocrity) so far, with 17 of the 30 teams within two games of .500.
After 30 games 27 of the 30 teams are either in first place or within four games of first place. The exceptions are the Twins (6 games out), the Tigers (9 games) and the Rockies (6 games). I'm definitely not counting the Twins out yet so right now everybody is in this except the Tigers and Rockies.
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