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The Indians make the short flight home from Detroit to take on the Buffalo Blue Jays, who split a double-header against the Yankees yesterday. But double-headers are only 14 innings now and the Jays bullpen only pitched 2.1 innings yesterday so fatigue should not be a factor other than the Jays having played 10.5 games in the last 10 days.
The Jays are 25-24 in the very tough A.L. East. They've played 28 games against the Yankees, Red Sox, A's, Astros, and Rays, going 13-15 against that group. The Indians have played no games against any of those teams other than going 1-3 against the Yankees, which are probably the five best teams in the A.L., although the White Sox could be included in that group.
The Jays are 3-7 in their last ten games, all against Boston, Tampa, and the Yankees. They're 15-13 on the road with a +31 run differential. I would say they are a better team than their record.
Their offense is excellent, ranking 3rd in the A.L. in runs per game, 3rd in batting average, 1st in home runs per game, 2nd in slugging percentage, 3rd in OPS, etc. Not exactly the team you want to be making your first major league start against. Tough timing for Eli Morgan. Or even your fourth start in Sam Hentges' case. We're kind of throwing our babes to the wolves this weekend but there's no alternative thanks to some very aggressive T-shirt removal.
The Jays rank 7th in team ERA and 12th in home runs per 9 innings. They're a little susceptible to the long ball. Defensively FanGraphs has them ranked 11th in the A.L. Looks like they basically slug their way to wins with average pitching and below average defense.
Vlad Guerrero Jr leads the charge with a .333/1.104 line. He has 16 HR's and 41 RBI's in 49 games. Obviously whatever the pitchers are doing this year is not impressing him much. Marcus Semien at .288/.900, Teoscar Hernandez .313/.870, Bo Bichette .272/.813 and Randall Grichuk .278/.786 are their big guns. However, all five of the aforementioned players hit right-handed. Their only semi-regular player who bats left is Cavan Biggio, hitting .205. With a mostly right-handed pitching staff this probably helps the Tribe a bit. However, as a team the Jays have virtually identical splits against right- and left-handed pitchers.
Tonight it's Eli Morgan v. LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu, 4-2, 2.53. This appears to be a total mismatch as Ryu is having an All-Star season, holding opponents to two runs or less in seven of his nine starts. He's on a roll having allowed three runs in his last three starts. The only hope against this guy is that his ERA on the road is 3.55 against 0.89 at home and right-handed hitters have an OPS of .708 against .462 for lefties. So if Tito can stack the lineup with right-handed hitters we may be able to scratch out a run or two. Unfortunately, I'm not sure Luplow or Amed Rosario can play as they were both down yesterday against a left-handed starter.
Morgan is coming off a start for Columbus where he went 6 shutout innings allowing 2 hits. Right-handed hitters are hitting .227 against him. He was injured in spring training and his first two starts were not good, but the third time was the charm so it will be interesting to see how that changeup works against some of the most dangerous hitters in the A.L. Too bad he couldn't have made his first start yesterday against the Tigers and saved Bieber for tonight.
The Jays are the 3rd highest scoring team in the league and we have to play them without our two best starters.
Tomorrow it's Hentges v. RHP Ross Stripling, 0-3, 5.63. Stripling is a 31-year-old journeyman with a career record of 23-30, 3.90. In his first six starts this season he got lit up for an ERA of 7.90. But his last start was a complete reversal as he went seven innings against Tampa Bay allowing no runs and two hits. Stripling has a nasty reverse split as lefties are hitting .191 and righties .349 off him. But I'm sure we'll see Zimmer and Bauers anyway.
Hentges has given up 9 runs in his last two starts so I want to see if he can put together some good innings against these guys. If you take away his one really bad outing where he gave up six runs in 1.2 innings to the Angels Hentges has a 3.86 ERA, not bad for a rookie. This will be a huge test facing all those right-handed hitters. Hentges has been owned by righties to the tune of .344/1.028 so he may not make it out of the first inning. If he's just a little off this one could be over very quickly.
Sunday it's Civale v. LHP Steven Matz, 6-2, 4.28. Matz has a career record of 37-43, 4.34. In his 10 starts this year he's held opponents to three runs or less seven times along with three bad outings. He's a six-inning guy. Like Stripling he's coming off a dominating start where he went 6.1 innings giving up 1 run, no walks, and 10 K's against the Yankees.
If Matz and Stripling pitch like they did in their last starts the Indians might not score five runs this weekend. At least we'll get our first look at Morgan and we'll see if Hentges can show some progress. I expect J.C. Mejia will get some innings if Morgan or Hentges have to exit early so we could get a look at all three of our newbies against one of the A.L.'s top offenses this weekend leading into a big four-game home series against the White Sox.
I'm looking forward to the next seven games in six days against two of the better teams in the league, but I'm not optimistic especially with Franmil and Plesac out.
The Jays are 25-24 in the very tough A.L. East. They've played 28 games against the Yankees, Red Sox, A's, Astros, and Rays, going 13-15 against that group. The Indians have played no games against any of those teams other than going 1-3 against the Yankees, which are probably the five best teams in the A.L., although the White Sox could be included in that group.
The Jays are 3-7 in their last ten games, all against Boston, Tampa, and the Yankees. They're 15-13 on the road with a +31 run differential. I would say they are a better team than their record.
Their offense is excellent, ranking 3rd in the A.L. in runs per game, 3rd in batting average, 1st in home runs per game, 2nd in slugging percentage, 3rd in OPS, etc. Not exactly the team you want to be making your first major league start against. Tough timing for Eli Morgan. Or even your fourth start in Sam Hentges' case. We're kind of throwing our babes to the wolves this weekend but there's no alternative thanks to some very aggressive T-shirt removal.
The Jays rank 7th in team ERA and 12th in home runs per 9 innings. They're a little susceptible to the long ball. Defensively FanGraphs has them ranked 11th in the A.L. Looks like they basically slug their way to wins with average pitching and below average defense.
Vlad Guerrero Jr leads the charge with a .333/1.104 line. He has 16 HR's and 41 RBI's in 49 games. Obviously whatever the pitchers are doing this year is not impressing him much. Marcus Semien at .288/.900, Teoscar Hernandez .313/.870, Bo Bichette .272/.813 and Randall Grichuk .278/.786 are their big guns. However, all five of the aforementioned players hit right-handed. Their only semi-regular player who bats left is Cavan Biggio, hitting .205. With a mostly right-handed pitching staff this probably helps the Tribe a bit. However, as a team the Jays have virtually identical splits against right- and left-handed pitchers.
Tonight it's Eli Morgan v. LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu, 4-2, 2.53. This appears to be a total mismatch as Ryu is having an All-Star season, holding opponents to two runs or less in seven of his nine starts. He's on a roll having allowed three runs in his last three starts. The only hope against this guy is that his ERA on the road is 3.55 against 0.89 at home and right-handed hitters have an OPS of .708 against .462 for lefties. So if Tito can stack the lineup with right-handed hitters we may be able to scratch out a run or two. Unfortunately, I'm not sure Luplow or Amed Rosario can play as they were both down yesterday against a left-handed starter.
Morgan is coming off a start for Columbus where he went 6 shutout innings allowing 2 hits. Right-handed hitters are hitting .227 against him. He was injured in spring training and his first two starts were not good, but the third time was the charm so it will be interesting to see how that changeup works against some of the most dangerous hitters in the A.L. Too bad he couldn't have made his first start yesterday against the Tigers and saved Bieber for tonight.
The Jays are the 3rd highest scoring team in the league and we have to play them without our two best starters.
Tomorrow it's Hentges v. RHP Ross Stripling, 0-3, 5.63. Stripling is a 31-year-old journeyman with a career record of 23-30, 3.90. In his first six starts this season he got lit up for an ERA of 7.90. But his last start was a complete reversal as he went seven innings against Tampa Bay allowing no runs and two hits. Stripling has a nasty reverse split as lefties are hitting .191 and righties .349 off him. But I'm sure we'll see Zimmer and Bauers anyway.
Hentges has given up 9 runs in his last two starts so I want to see if he can put together some good innings against these guys. If you take away his one really bad outing where he gave up six runs in 1.2 innings to the Angels Hentges has a 3.86 ERA, not bad for a rookie. This will be a huge test facing all those right-handed hitters. Hentges has been owned by righties to the tune of .344/1.028 so he may not make it out of the first inning. If he's just a little off this one could be over very quickly.
Sunday it's Civale v. LHP Steven Matz, 6-2, 4.28. Matz has a career record of 37-43, 4.34. In his 10 starts this year he's held opponents to three runs or less seven times along with three bad outings. He's a six-inning guy. Like Stripling he's coming off a dominating start where he went 6.1 innings giving up 1 run, no walks, and 10 K's against the Yankees.
If Matz and Stripling pitch like they did in their last starts the Indians might not score five runs this weekend. At least we'll get our first look at Morgan and we'll see if Hentges can show some progress. I expect J.C. Mejia will get some innings if Morgan or Hentges have to exit early so we could get a look at all three of our newbies against one of the A.L.'s top offenses this weekend leading into a big four-game home series against the White Sox.
I'm looking forward to the next seven games in six days against two of the better teams in the league, but I'm not optimistic especially with Franmil and Plesac out.
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