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After a rare day off the Indians make the short trip from Chicago to Minneapolis for a four-game set against the surging Twins, who have won five of their last six. It could have been six of six but Tyler Naquin beat them Tuesday night on a 3-run homer in the 9th, his fourth hit of the game.
On the season the Twins are 31-42 overall and 15-22 at home. They are tied for last with the Tigers and have a ton of ground to make up and probably don’t have the pitching to do it.
These teams have played six games, all in Cleveland, and the season series is tied at 3-3. The cumulative score is Minnesota 38, Cleveland 24, but three of the games went to the 10th inning so other than a couple of blowouts it’s been a pretty even series. On the season the Twins are -52 in run differential while the Tribe is +1.
The Twins may be losers but they can still hit, ranking 6th in the A.L. in scoring and batting average, 5th in OPS and slugging, and 2nd in home runs per game. Their problem is pitching where they rank 14th in ERA and home runs allowed. Their team ERA is 4.92.
They also could be a little off their game offensively. Byron Buxton, who is having an insane season at .369/1.261, broke a bone in his hand the other day and may need surgery. Josh Donaldson (.240/.792) is day-to-day and catcher Mitch Garver, (.224/.833) is still out after a groin injury.
But they still have Nelson Cruz (for now, anyway) who’s having another stellar season at age 40 with a line of .306/.952. In June Cruz is mashing .400/1.253 (24-for-60) so he is white hot right now. He’s hitting a blistering .390 against lefties (Hentges should pitch around him and don’t even think about bringing in Nelson). The good news is he’s hitting .257 against righties and he’s been better on the road, so maybe we can limit the damage.
Luis Arraez has picked up his pace, hitting .333/.811 in June and .308 overall against RHP’s. Other than Buxton, Cruz and Arraez nobody is really having a great year although Alex Kirilloff is hitting .302/.791 in June. Max Kepler is hitting .211, which is really surprising at age 28. What they have is a lot of power hitters who can hurt you if you make a mistake: Cruz, Sano, Kepler, Donaldson, Astudillo. This team has a lot of muscle. The key is not to hang anything and try to keep them on the ground.
Fangraphs ranks the Twins 11th in the A.L. in fielding, last in pitching WAR, 14th in relief pitching, and 13th in FIP. They hit well but don’t pitch or field so good.
Thursday kicks it off with JC Mejia against Jose Berrios, 7-2, 3.56. Those numbers look good but Berrios’ ERAs by month are: April 3.04, May 3.58, and June 4.26. His home ERA is 4.29 and lefties are hitting .293/.918 off him. He started one game against the Tribe and gave up 2 runs in 5.2 innings in April. He is lethal against right-handed hitters; .172/.425. But he hasn't been great lately, he hasn't been great at home, and he has been hit hard by lefties. We should have six lefties in the lineup against the Twins right-handers plus Amed, the catcher, and the DH.
As for Mejia, when he starts the game opposing batters are hitting .320/.910 against him. That has to change. His ERA on the road is 9.31. The Pirates scored five runs in the first inning in his last start so he needs to be ready to go in the first inning.
Mejia has started four games and 9 of his 12 earned runs in those starts came in the first inning. That has to change. The first inning might be the deciding inning tonight.
On Friday Quantrill goes against Randy Dobnak, 1-6, 7.83. Dobnak is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, although he’s only started five games this year, pitching mainly in relief. His home ERA is 11.09 and as a starter batters are hitting .310/.906 off him. His June ERA is 9.87 and lefties are hitting .342/1.021. This guy is awful. However, he owns the Indians. In two appearances against Cleveland he’s pitched 8 scoreless innings, allowing only 4 hits. His ERA is 0.00 against the Indians and 9.59 against all other opponents. WTF?
Hopefully the third time is the charm and we figure out what everybody else already knows - how to score a run an inning off this guy.
Cal Quantrill has gone four and five innings his last two starts, allowing one run total. Hopefully he can push it out to six innings on Friday while the offense finally gets to Dobnak.
Saturday it’s Hentges vs. 33-year-old Kenta Maeda, 3-2, 4.85. Maeda is pitching well lately with a 2.89 ERA in June. In two starts against the Tribe this year his ERA is 5.91. The Indians have hit him pretty well, better than most. The key is to get on base; batters are hitting .316 when he goes to the stretch.
Hentges is coming off a start where he shut out the Pirates for five innings on two hits (one was a bloop that was dropped) so I’d like to see him go six innings this time, although the Twins are a bigger challenge than the Pirates. As a lefty he has to be careful with Cruz, Sano and Donaldson. Try to keep those big right-handed bats in the ballpark.
The finale will be Morgan against 38-year-old lefty J.A. Happ (3-3, 6-09). Happ appears to be running on fumes. His ERAs by month: April 1.96, May 8.49, June 8.20. He has allowed 39 earned runs in 42 innings in May and June. He has gone six innings in just one of his last nine starts. Batters have a .875 OPS against him. In two starts against the Indians this year his ERA is 4.15. Righties are hitting .285/.908 off him.
Morgan looked like Shane Bieber for five innings against the Pirates but the Twins will present a bigger problem. They’ll watch the video of his outing against Pittsburgh and I’m sure they’ll have a game plan, one that will not involve taking so many two-strike fastballs on the outside corner.
I’m hoping we can get to Dobnak and Maeda early and force the Twins to use their bullpen a lot, leaving them no fresh relievers by Sunday when Happ pitches. The Indians are obviously going to have to score to win this weekend. Bieber, Plesac, and Civale won’t be pitching. We’ll have four young, unproven starters going. The Twins are hot right now and playing at home. Both teams were off Wednesday so the bullpens will be ready. I expect both bullpens to throw a lot of innings this weekend.
Considering the lack of proven starting pitching on both teams right now and the fact that both teams are hitting well this could be an exciting weekend dominated by the offenses and really straining the bullpens. The Indians have the better bullpen and with Buxton and Garver out the Twins are weakened a bit offensively, so I'm optimistic the Indians can at least break even and possibly win three if the starting pitching holds up.
I'll really be pissed if Dobnak throws six shutout innings or if we let Happ beat us throwing nothing but curveballs and changeups.
On the season the Twins are 31-42 overall and 15-22 at home. They are tied for last with the Tigers and have a ton of ground to make up and probably don’t have the pitching to do it.
These teams have played six games, all in Cleveland, and the season series is tied at 3-3. The cumulative score is Minnesota 38, Cleveland 24, but three of the games went to the 10th inning so other than a couple of blowouts it’s been a pretty even series. On the season the Twins are -52 in run differential while the Tribe is +1.
The Twins may be losers but they can still hit, ranking 6th in the A.L. in scoring and batting average, 5th in OPS and slugging, and 2nd in home runs per game. Their problem is pitching where they rank 14th in ERA and home runs allowed. Their team ERA is 4.92.
They also could be a little off their game offensively. Byron Buxton, who is having an insane season at .369/1.261, broke a bone in his hand the other day and may need surgery. Josh Donaldson (.240/.792) is day-to-day and catcher Mitch Garver, (.224/.833) is still out after a groin injury.
But they still have Nelson Cruz (for now, anyway) who’s having another stellar season at age 40 with a line of .306/.952. In June Cruz is mashing .400/1.253 (24-for-60) so he is white hot right now. He’s hitting a blistering .390 against lefties (Hentges should pitch around him and don’t even think about bringing in Nelson). The good news is he’s hitting .257 against righties and he’s been better on the road, so maybe we can limit the damage.
Luis Arraez has picked up his pace, hitting .333/.811 in June and .308 overall against RHP’s. Other than Buxton, Cruz and Arraez nobody is really having a great year although Alex Kirilloff is hitting .302/.791 in June. Max Kepler is hitting .211, which is really surprising at age 28. What they have is a lot of power hitters who can hurt you if you make a mistake: Cruz, Sano, Kepler, Donaldson, Astudillo. This team has a lot of muscle. The key is not to hang anything and try to keep them on the ground.
Fangraphs ranks the Twins 11th in the A.L. in fielding, last in pitching WAR, 14th in relief pitching, and 13th in FIP. They hit well but don’t pitch or field so good.
Thursday kicks it off with JC Mejia against Jose Berrios, 7-2, 3.56. Those numbers look good but Berrios’ ERAs by month are: April 3.04, May 3.58, and June 4.26. His home ERA is 4.29 and lefties are hitting .293/.918 off him. He started one game against the Tribe and gave up 2 runs in 5.2 innings in April. He is lethal against right-handed hitters; .172/.425. But he hasn't been great lately, he hasn't been great at home, and he has been hit hard by lefties. We should have six lefties in the lineup against the Twins right-handers plus Amed, the catcher, and the DH.
As for Mejia, when he starts the game opposing batters are hitting .320/.910 against him. That has to change. His ERA on the road is 9.31. The Pirates scored five runs in the first inning in his last start so he needs to be ready to go in the first inning.
Mejia has started four games and 9 of his 12 earned runs in those starts came in the first inning. That has to change. The first inning might be the deciding inning tonight.
On Friday Quantrill goes against Randy Dobnak, 1-6, 7.83. Dobnak is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, although he’s only started five games this year, pitching mainly in relief. His home ERA is 11.09 and as a starter batters are hitting .310/.906 off him. His June ERA is 9.87 and lefties are hitting .342/1.021. This guy is awful. However, he owns the Indians. In two appearances against Cleveland he’s pitched 8 scoreless innings, allowing only 4 hits. His ERA is 0.00 against the Indians and 9.59 against all other opponents. WTF?
Hopefully the third time is the charm and we figure out what everybody else already knows - how to score a run an inning off this guy.
Cal Quantrill has gone four and five innings his last two starts, allowing one run total. Hopefully he can push it out to six innings on Friday while the offense finally gets to Dobnak.
Saturday it’s Hentges vs. 33-year-old Kenta Maeda, 3-2, 4.85. Maeda is pitching well lately with a 2.89 ERA in June. In two starts against the Tribe this year his ERA is 5.91. The Indians have hit him pretty well, better than most. The key is to get on base; batters are hitting .316 when he goes to the stretch.
Hentges is coming off a start where he shut out the Pirates for five innings on two hits (one was a bloop that was dropped) so I’d like to see him go six innings this time, although the Twins are a bigger challenge than the Pirates. As a lefty he has to be careful with Cruz, Sano and Donaldson. Try to keep those big right-handed bats in the ballpark.
The finale will be Morgan against 38-year-old lefty J.A. Happ (3-3, 6-09). Happ appears to be running on fumes. His ERAs by month: April 1.96, May 8.49, June 8.20. He has allowed 39 earned runs in 42 innings in May and June. He has gone six innings in just one of his last nine starts. Batters have a .875 OPS against him. In two starts against the Indians this year his ERA is 4.15. Righties are hitting .285/.908 off him.
Morgan looked like Shane Bieber for five innings against the Pirates but the Twins will present a bigger problem. They’ll watch the video of his outing against Pittsburgh and I’m sure they’ll have a game plan, one that will not involve taking so many two-strike fastballs on the outside corner.
I’m hoping we can get to Dobnak and Maeda early and force the Twins to use their bullpen a lot, leaving them no fresh relievers by Sunday when Happ pitches. The Indians are obviously going to have to score to win this weekend. Bieber, Plesac, and Civale won’t be pitching. We’ll have four young, unproven starters going. The Twins are hot right now and playing at home. Both teams were off Wednesday so the bullpens will be ready. I expect both bullpens to throw a lot of innings this weekend.
Considering the lack of proven starting pitching on both teams right now and the fact that both teams are hitting well this could be an exciting weekend dominated by the offenses and really straining the bullpens. The Indians have the better bullpen and with Buxton and Garver out the Twins are weakened a bit offensively, so I'm optimistic the Indians can at least break even and possibly win three if the starting pitching holds up.
I'll really be pissed if Dobnak throws six shutout innings or if we let Happ beat us throwing nothing but curveballs and changeups.
