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Well, the wolf is finally at the door. The Indians survived June with a 13-11 record, but now they get four games against the mighty Astros, coming in at 48-33 and 22-17 on the road. The Astros have by far the best run differential in the A.L at +126. The Indians are -6. The Indians have played the easiest schedule in baseball so far, but that changes now.
Houston had a hiccup recently, winning 11 straight but since losing 5 of their last 6 to Baltimore and Detroit. The O's swept them in Houston over the last three days by a combined score of 27-12. That was a shocker. Did we catch the Astros at a good time or was that an anomaly that will bring them to Cleveland in a very foul mood?
The Astros easily lead the majors in runs per game at 5.60, the next closest being Toronto at 5.17. They lead the majors in batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS. With the Indians entire starting rotation down this looks like a potential bloodbath, especially with the air nice and warm and the balls carrying well.
Some of you old-timers may remember Michael Brantley from his days in Cleveland. Now 34, Brantley is hitting a cool .340/.875, including a .382 mark against RHP's. He's been in fire in June, finishing with a .410/1.022 line.
Carlos Correa, Frankie Lindor's old rival, is hitting .296/.916. Jose Altuve keeps on keepin' on at .287/.875 with 17 home runs. Yuli Gurriel is having a huge year at .328/.907. Yordan Alvarez is keeping up at .298/.884. Kyle Tucker, LF, is at .268/.811 with 13 HR's. It just goes on and on.
The Astros hit better on the road, scoring 2 more runs in 3 fewer games. They're also getting better; their OPS in April, May, and June is .733, .786, and .867.
As for pitching they are 3rd in the A.L. in ERA and are better on the road. Their June ERA is 3.26, better than in April and May.
This is one scary ass team and this weekend could be an eye opener.
JC Mejia goes tonight against lefty Framber Valdez, 4-1, 2.11. Valdez only has six starts but has been very effective. He's only 5'11" but checks in at 239 pounds. In two starts against the Red Sox he has a 1.26 ERA. Batters are 2-for-25 against him with RISP. Looking at his splits he has no apparent vulnerabilities - he's great against righties and lefties, at home and on the road, and he's better with runners on base than he is with the bases empty.
As for Mejia, this will be a huge test. The key for him is to get through the first inning where he's given up 9 of the 12 runs he's allowed as a starter.
Friday it's Hentges against Lance McCullers, 5-1, 2.94. Opposing batters are hitting .183 against him, .118 with runners on, and .140 with RISP. It's tough to get on and even tougher to score. McCullers has allowed two runs or fewer in 9 of his 12 starts and only once has allowed more than 3 runs. That occurred in April. He throws lots of curveballs.
Saturday Eli Morgan gets a shot against Jake Odorizzi, 2-3, 4.08. Odorizzi has a 3.26 ERA on the road, holding opponents to a .125 batting average. They only let him go through the batting order twice. In 8 starts and one relief appearance he's pitched 35 innings, so he averages about four innings per start. In June he averaged 4.4 innings per start.
Morgan has been very good if you take away the home runs. In 16.1 innings he's given up six of them, which probably account for over half of the earned runs he's allowed. He has an outstanding 19/2 strikeout to walk ratio, so maybe he should pitch more to the margins of the zone and give up a few more walks in exchange for fewer home runs. Basically he needs to avoid throwing those high breaking balls that don't break.
Sunday it's To Be Determined against Zack Greinke, 8-2, 3.65. Greinke is still mowing them down at age 37, averaging over six innings per start. He has a 2.06 ERA on the road against 5.26 in Houston. The Orioles got 8 hits off him in 5 innings in his last start, so there's a gleam of hope.
Normally Logan Allen would start this game but since the rainout Tuesday bumped him to Wednesday we don't have a starter yet. Could be a bullpen day. Quantrill only threw 67 pitches yesterday so maybe they start him on three days rest and try to get three innings out of him.
Houston had a hiccup recently, winning 11 straight but since losing 5 of their last 6 to Baltimore and Detroit. The O's swept them in Houston over the last three days by a combined score of 27-12. That was a shocker. Did we catch the Astros at a good time or was that an anomaly that will bring them to Cleveland in a very foul mood?
The Astros easily lead the majors in runs per game at 5.60, the next closest being Toronto at 5.17. They lead the majors in batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS. With the Indians entire starting rotation down this looks like a potential bloodbath, especially with the air nice and warm and the balls carrying well.
Some of you old-timers may remember Michael Brantley from his days in Cleveland. Now 34, Brantley is hitting a cool .340/.875, including a .382 mark against RHP's. He's been in fire in June, finishing with a .410/1.022 line.
Carlos Correa, Frankie Lindor's old rival, is hitting .296/.916. Jose Altuve keeps on keepin' on at .287/.875 with 17 home runs. Yuli Gurriel is having a huge year at .328/.907. Yordan Alvarez is keeping up at .298/.884. Kyle Tucker, LF, is at .268/.811 with 13 HR's. It just goes on and on.
The Astros hit better on the road, scoring 2 more runs in 3 fewer games. They're also getting better; their OPS in April, May, and June is .733, .786, and .867.
As for pitching they are 3rd in the A.L. in ERA and are better on the road. Their June ERA is 3.26, better than in April and May.
This is one scary ass team and this weekend could be an eye opener.
JC Mejia goes tonight against lefty Framber Valdez, 4-1, 2.11. Valdez only has six starts but has been very effective. He's only 5'11" but checks in at 239 pounds. In two starts against the Red Sox he has a 1.26 ERA. Batters are 2-for-25 against him with RISP. Looking at his splits he has no apparent vulnerabilities - he's great against righties and lefties, at home and on the road, and he's better with runners on base than he is with the bases empty.
As for Mejia, this will be a huge test. The key for him is to get through the first inning where he's given up 9 of the 12 runs he's allowed as a starter.
Friday it's Hentges against Lance McCullers, 5-1, 2.94. Opposing batters are hitting .183 against him, .118 with runners on, and .140 with RISP. It's tough to get on and even tougher to score. McCullers has allowed two runs or fewer in 9 of his 12 starts and only once has allowed more than 3 runs. That occurred in April. He throws lots of curveballs.
Saturday Eli Morgan gets a shot against Jake Odorizzi, 2-3, 4.08. Odorizzi has a 3.26 ERA on the road, holding opponents to a .125 batting average. They only let him go through the batting order twice. In 8 starts and one relief appearance he's pitched 35 innings, so he averages about four innings per start. In June he averaged 4.4 innings per start.
Morgan has been very good if you take away the home runs. In 16.1 innings he's given up six of them, which probably account for over half of the earned runs he's allowed. He has an outstanding 19/2 strikeout to walk ratio, so maybe he should pitch more to the margins of the zone and give up a few more walks in exchange for fewer home runs. Basically he needs to avoid throwing those high breaking balls that don't break.
Sunday it's To Be Determined against Zack Greinke, 8-2, 3.65. Greinke is still mowing them down at age 37, averaging over six innings per start. He has a 2.06 ERA on the road against 5.26 in Houston. The Orioles got 8 hits off him in 5 innings in his last start, so there's a gleam of hope.
Normally Logan Allen would start this game but since the rainout Tuesday bumped him to Wednesday we don't have a starter yet. Could be a bullpen day. Quantrill only threw 67 pitches yesterday so maybe they start him on three days rest and try to get three innings out of him.
(I moved outside driving distance beginning 2017). I’m not expecting much with our current pitching staff vs the Astros offense….but you never know in baseball.
