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The Indians stagger back home with a nine-game losing streak in tow. It started off with two losses to the Tigers followed by an 0-7 skid against the Astros and Rays, two of the better teams in the A.L. You can only get by with smoke and mirrors for so long and the All-Star break can't come soon enough. But first the Indians get a four-game series against the tailspinning Kansas City Royals, losers of 12 of their last 15 and 22 of their last 29.
The Royals are one game under .500 at home and 15-28 on the road so it appears the Indians are catching them in the right place and at the right time. Hopefully they can pull out a couple of wins and not head into the break on a 13-game losing streak.
The Royals are pretty anemic offensively, ranking 14th in the A.L. in runs per game, last in walks and home runs per game, 11th in OBP, and 13th in slugging percentage. They rank first, however, in fewest strikeouts per game and first in stolen bases. They don't get on base much but when they do they're off and running. They're hitting .228/.647 on the road.
They rank 14th in team ERA, last in WHIP, and last in walks per 9 innings. It helps to be really patient at the dish.
The Royals are 1-5 against the Indians, splitting two games in April and getting swept in a four-game series in KC in May. However, the pitchers who started those five wins for the Indians were Bieber (twice), Civale, McKenzie, and a bullpen game. Obviously the Royals will be seeing a totally different group of starters this time around.
So it's two teams who have been really bad recently featuring two of the worst offenses in baseball hooking up for four games. At least we should see some good base running. The Indians rank 3rd in the majors in stolen base percentage but I doubt they'll be running on Salavador Perez.
Perez is the starting catcher in the All-Star game this year and is hitting .281/.813. He has two home runs against the Indians. Whit Merrifield is hitting .275/.745 - not a great year for him. He's in a slump, going 4-for-27 in July. Carlos Santana keeps rolling along with a line of .247/.777, just a tick off his career numbers. However, he's only hitting .219 against RHPs and he will see four of them this series. He's 1-for-23 against the Tribe this year.
Two of the Royals power bats, Jorge Soler and Hunter Dozier, are having miserable seasons, hitting .183 and .169, respectively. Soler is hitting .176 agains RHPs and .171 on the road. This guy hit 48 home runs in 2019. I don't know what happened to him. He's 29 years old. Dozier, also 29, has had a similar regression from 2019 when he had an .870 OPS.
Tonight Zack Plesac makes his return so that's great news, although he'll be limited to 60 pitches and his effectiveness will be questionable. LHP Danny Duffy, 4-3, 2.60, goes for the Royals. In two starts against the Tribe Duffy has a 2.31 ERA. He shut them out for six innings the first week of April. However, Duffy's monthly ERA's are: April 0.39, May 3.86, June 5.68, and July 4.50 in one start. Duffy was injured from May 12 to June 23 with a strained flexor muscle in his forearm and is being brought back very slowly. He went four innings his last start. I expect he won't go more than five in his last start before the break.
The key against Duffy is getting on base. The first time facing him batters are hitting .193, but the second time it's .229 and the third time it's .317/.949. You want to get to that third time through as early as possible. Tonight they might not let him go that long.
Tomorrow it TBD against RHP Brad Keller, who is the only RHP the Royals will start this weekend. Keller is 6-9, 6.39 in 18 starts. The 25-year-old has allowed 115 hits in 87 innings. Batters are hitting .320/.897 off him for the season and his June ERA was 8.31. However, in his last start he held the Twins to two runs in 6.1 innings. He has not faced the Indians this year.
Saturday Eli Morgan goes against LHP Mike Minor, age 33, 6-7, 5.36. Minor started once against the Indians and allowed three runs in 5.1 innings. The key against Minor is to get him into the stretch. With nobody on base batters are hitting .202. With runners on it jumps to .336 and with RISP it's .408. The first time facing him batters are hitting .172 but the second time it's .285/.916.
Sunday Cal Quantrill, coming off a solid start, goes against LHP Kris Bubic, age 23, 2-4, 5.40, who has 15 appearances and 8 starts. As a starter batters are hitting .289/.988 against him; as a reliever it's .239/.645. He's their version of JC Mejia. Bubic's road ERA is 7.16. In June and July combined he's allowed 29 earned runs in 27 innings. In his last two starts he's allowed 10 runs in 8.1 innings.
So after we get past Duffy tonight their next three starters have ERA's of 6.39, 5.36, and 5.40. And Duffy, who threw 69 pitches his last start, probably won't go past 75-80 tonight. The potential is there for the Indians to score some runs this weekend, especially with the home cooking. Too bad we don't have Jordan Luplow with three lefties going for the Royals. Oscar Mercado should get three starts in center; I'd like to see him get going a little. Bobby Bradley is hitting .148 against lefties and .125 in July. It would be great if he could end the first half on a positive note.
The Royals are one game under .500 at home and 15-28 on the road so it appears the Indians are catching them in the right place and at the right time. Hopefully they can pull out a couple of wins and not head into the break on a 13-game losing streak.
The Royals are pretty anemic offensively, ranking 14th in the A.L. in runs per game, last in walks and home runs per game, 11th in OBP, and 13th in slugging percentage. They rank first, however, in fewest strikeouts per game and first in stolen bases. They don't get on base much but when they do they're off and running. They're hitting .228/.647 on the road.
They rank 14th in team ERA, last in WHIP, and last in walks per 9 innings. It helps to be really patient at the dish.
The Royals are 1-5 against the Indians, splitting two games in April and getting swept in a four-game series in KC in May. However, the pitchers who started those five wins for the Indians were Bieber (twice), Civale, McKenzie, and a bullpen game. Obviously the Royals will be seeing a totally different group of starters this time around.
So it's two teams who have been really bad recently featuring two of the worst offenses in baseball hooking up for four games. At least we should see some good base running. The Indians rank 3rd in the majors in stolen base percentage but I doubt they'll be running on Salavador Perez.
Perez is the starting catcher in the All-Star game this year and is hitting .281/.813. He has two home runs against the Indians. Whit Merrifield is hitting .275/.745 - not a great year for him. He's in a slump, going 4-for-27 in July. Carlos Santana keeps rolling along with a line of .247/.777, just a tick off his career numbers. However, he's only hitting .219 against RHPs and he will see four of them this series. He's 1-for-23 against the Tribe this year.
Two of the Royals power bats, Jorge Soler and Hunter Dozier, are having miserable seasons, hitting .183 and .169, respectively. Soler is hitting .176 agains RHPs and .171 on the road. This guy hit 48 home runs in 2019. I don't know what happened to him. He's 29 years old. Dozier, also 29, has had a similar regression from 2019 when he had an .870 OPS.
Tonight Zack Plesac makes his return so that's great news, although he'll be limited to 60 pitches and his effectiveness will be questionable. LHP Danny Duffy, 4-3, 2.60, goes for the Royals. In two starts against the Tribe Duffy has a 2.31 ERA. He shut them out for six innings the first week of April. However, Duffy's monthly ERA's are: April 0.39, May 3.86, June 5.68, and July 4.50 in one start. Duffy was injured from May 12 to June 23 with a strained flexor muscle in his forearm and is being brought back very slowly. He went four innings his last start. I expect he won't go more than five in his last start before the break.
The key against Duffy is getting on base. The first time facing him batters are hitting .193, but the second time it's .229 and the third time it's .317/.949. You want to get to that third time through as early as possible. Tonight they might not let him go that long.
Tomorrow it TBD against RHP Brad Keller, who is the only RHP the Royals will start this weekend. Keller is 6-9, 6.39 in 18 starts. The 25-year-old has allowed 115 hits in 87 innings. Batters are hitting .320/.897 off him for the season and his June ERA was 8.31. However, in his last start he held the Twins to two runs in 6.1 innings. He has not faced the Indians this year.
Saturday Eli Morgan goes against LHP Mike Minor, age 33, 6-7, 5.36. Minor started once against the Indians and allowed three runs in 5.1 innings. The key against Minor is to get him into the stretch. With nobody on base batters are hitting .202. With runners on it jumps to .336 and with RISP it's .408. The first time facing him batters are hitting .172 but the second time it's .285/.916.
Sunday Cal Quantrill, coming off a solid start, goes against LHP Kris Bubic, age 23, 2-4, 5.40, who has 15 appearances and 8 starts. As a starter batters are hitting .289/.988 against him; as a reliever it's .239/.645. He's their version of JC Mejia. Bubic's road ERA is 7.16. In June and July combined he's allowed 29 earned runs in 27 innings. In his last two starts he's allowed 10 runs in 8.1 innings.
So after we get past Duffy tonight their next three starters have ERA's of 6.39, 5.36, and 5.40. And Duffy, who threw 69 pitches his last start, probably won't go past 75-80 tonight. The potential is there for the Indians to score some runs this weekend, especially with the home cooking. Too bad we don't have Jordan Luplow with three lefties going for the Royals. Oscar Mercado should get three starts in center; I'd like to see him get going a little. Bobby Bradley is hitting .148 against lefties and .125 in July. It would be great if he could end the first half on a positive note.
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