2021 Series #8 | Twins @ Indians | April 26-28

[Wham with the Right Hand]

The Twins come to town for the first series of the year between these teams. The Twins are reeling, having lost 11 of their last 13 games and are 7-13 overall. However, their losing series were against Boston (14-9), Oakland (14-8), Seattle (13-9), and Pittsburgh (11-11). Their schedule has been tough. Let’s not shovel any dirt on their grave just yet.

In their last 11 games the Twins have scored 2, 2, 2, 12, 0, 0, 3, 4, 1, 2, and 2 runs. So they’ve scored two runs or less in 8 of their last 11. Sounds like the Indians. This could be a very low scoring series.

The Twins have three games were they scored 15, 12, and 10 runs. In their other 17 games they averaged 2.8 runs.

They also have some COVID problems. Andrelton Simmons and Max Kepler are out. Miguel Sano is out with a hammy. That’s three starters. Simmons is hitting .355/.925 so his loss will hurt. Kepler and Sano have not hit much.

There’s nothing wrong with Arraez (.397 OBP), Cruz (1.056 OPS), Buxton (1.242 OPS) and Donaldson (.955 OPS in 9 games). They still have the bats, but those are the only guys who are hitting.

Arraez is hitting .391 against RHP’s. Cruz is killing everybody and hitting .395 on the road. Buxton is killing it. They have quite a guantlet, similar to the Yankees.

The Twins rank 15th in team ERA at 4.20. They don’t walk many - fourth lowest in walks per 9 innings. They’re average in strikeouts.

Jose Berrios starts tonight against Plesac, who is coming off two very bad starts. Berrios is 2-2, but lost 1-0 to Oakland. He’s been outstanding in 3 of 4 starts; the only hiccup was allowing four runs in 4.1 innings to the Red Sox, who lead the league in scoring.

Kenta Maeda, 1-1, 6.11, goes in game 2 against Civale. Maeda is 33 and off to a rough start. In 3 of 4 starts he did not make it through the 5th inning. In his last start he was rocked for 7 runs in 3 innings by Oakland, including three HR’s. His best start was two runs in 6 innings against the toothless Tigers. He’s allowed 28 hits and 5 walks in 17.2 innings. It looks like they just want to try and get five decent innings out of the 33-year-old.

J.A. Happ, the 38-year-old soft-tossing lefty, goes in game 3 against Allen. Happ is 1-1, 1.69 in three starts. His first two starts lasted 4.0 and 4.1 innings so, like Maeda, they don’t expect him to pitch deep into games. But he went 7.1 innings in his last start against the Pirates, allowing one hit and no runs. He’s coming off a tremendous start and the Indians never do anything against guys like this.

We're going to see hundreds of breaking balls this series.

Their bullpen has been a huge issue. Here are some ERA’s: Dobnak 10.61, Colome 5.63, Theilbar 4.50, Alcala 4.70, and Stashak 11.12. Their bullpen ERA is 4.84, 7th worst in baseball. However, their xFIP is 4th best, indicating they’ve had some bad luck or maybe bad defense. Their BABIP is 8th highest.

However, FanGraphs ranks the Twins’ defense third best in baseball. Their UZR/150 is 18.2, which leads the majors. The next highest is 9.7. I’m sure Buxton and Simmons have a lot to do with that. I don't get why their bullpen BABIP is so high when the team UZR is the best in the game. Really bad luck?

I think that as the season goes on the Twins will have problems in that they have two 30-something junk ballers in their rotation who have only gone five innings twice in seven starts. Their fifth starter, Matt Shoemaker, has a 5.49 ERA. He’s 34 and has started 18 games the last three seasons. His longest start this year was six innings.

I think that bullpen is going to have to throw a lot of innings this season. It could be a real problem in the second half.

This could be another very low scoring series. Or not. The Twins are very similar to the Yankees in that they come in having lost a lot of recent games and having trouble scoring, but you know the potential is there. The Yankees got their bats back on track against the Tribe. The Twins hope to do the same.

 

[xmasbuck]

imo, this series is about plesac and allen being effective - cant imagine there's path to the playoffs for us with only 2 effective starters

 

[jup]

imo, this series is about plesac and allen being effective - cant imagine there's path to the playoffs for us with only 2 effective starters

The rotation is young overall, and that is what you see with a young rotation - a lot of variability. So you may see Plesac go good this time around and someone else fall off the cliff for a start or two. That is the most likely scenario for the Indians rotation this year - somewhat of a roller coaster ride outside of Biebs

 

[ZinAZ]

The rotation is young overall, and that is what you see with a young rotation - a lot of variability. So you may see Plesac go good this time around and someone else fall off the cliff for a start or two. That is the most likely scenario for the Indians rotation this year - somewhat of a roller coaster ride outside of Biebs

I agree but their is also a decent chance one of these guys flat out fails, if that's the case who do think gets the next shot?

 

[jup]

I agree but their is also a decent chance one of these guys flat out fails, if that's the case who do think gets the next shot?

Really have no idea given the lack of minor league seasons and the information out of alternate sites.

But I think that you have a few more starts before they make a decision on that. Sometime first week of May or so I would say. About 40 days in has been their history.

 

[ZinAZ]

Really have no idea given the lack of minor league seasons and the information out of alternate sites.

But I think that you have a few more starts before they make a decision on that. Sometime first week of May or so I would say. About 40 days in has been their history.

Ya I agree with that they won't do anything rash here. I just have some concerns on Plessac's arm (FB velocity seems down & seems to be throwing's less FB's)
and I don't have a lot of faith in Allen

 

[Benway]

We're loitering around the .500 mark so far, with the expectation that adjustments (improvements) are just around the corner.
Even without actual talent influx, it seems that this team should start hitting better soon.

Pitching is a different matter.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

The Athletic has a column previewing the series. It's a Q & A between the Indians and Twins beat writers, which is great because you get firsthand information from a reporter who has been covering the Twins every day. Here are his key comments on the Twins' season so far...

There’s been a COVID-19 outbreak that landed five players on the injured list, including starting shortstop Andrelton Simmons and right fielder Max Kepler....Sanó and Kepler aren’t likely to play in this series.

On the field, where do we begin? Opening Day, the Twins played great but three misplays cost them a win. It’s been that way ever since. Half the lineup isn’t hitting. Simmons’ absence — he should return during this series — has had the defense out of sorts. Alexander Colomé has had, statistically, the worst start in club history for a closer. The Twins can’t win in extra innings and have been horrible in doubleheaders, too. And they’ve had a bunch of bad luck mixed in. Essentially, it’s been one giant smorgasbord of crap....

They expected to bounce back this season despite allowing Eddie Rosario to walk. So far, that rebound has yet to materialize. Some of it could be attributed to a lot of early days off. Of the first 22 days in April, the Twins didn’t play on seven of them, and that certainly can mess with rhythm and timing. They have also played a ton of day games, which means no batting practice. And while it would be stupid to say this is how it will be given it’s still very early, this isn’t looking great....

Byron Buxton, Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson, Luis Arraez and Simmons have been good at the plate. The rest of the team has been awful. Entering Sunday, Twins left fielders had a Weighted Runs Created Plus of 34 and were hitting .162/.217/.252. Their catchers wRC+ is 51.

So last year the Indians' left field situation was abominable. This year Eddie Rosario moves from the Twins to the Indians and now it's the Twins who are getting no offense out of left field (not that Rosario has been that great for the Tribe, but he is on pace for over 90 RBI's despite a very slow start).

The Twins' writer complained about to many off days but the Twins have played the same number of games as the Indians and White Sox and only one fewer than the Royals. If days off "messed with their rhythm and timing", how come they have five guys who are hitting the shit out of the ball? They're allowed to take batting practice on off days, right?

I still think this is a team that can turn it around quickly if they can get their bullpen on track and get their really unproductive hitters going a little bit. But with three starters age 33, 34, and 38, all of whom are already having problems getting to the 6th inning and in some cases even the 5th, it's going to put a lot of stress on the bullpen as we move forward.

 

[Gson]

Really have no idea given the lack of minor league seasons and the information out of alternate sites.

But I think that you have a few more starts before they make a decision on that. Sometime first week of May or so I would say. About 40 days in has been their history.

Yes.. a few more starts at least..

Then there is a likelihood we'll start hearing about guys like JC Mejia & Carlos Vargas with Scotty Moss the most likely to capture the first up slot for SP replacement.. It's a guess.. who knows.. even eli morgan will be tapped for a start or two..

One thing that is clear.. The outings by Cal Quantrill.. are starting to show some depth and some ability.. If no one is recalled from the minors.. he may get the start.. for no other reason than it won't require a roster move..

Of course.. the entire forum knows that the reason Jup would be okay with Quantrill is that he throws hard.. gotta have that !!..

We'll see..

 

[jup]

We're loitering around the .500 mark so far, with the expectation that adjustments (improvements) are just around the corner.
Even without actual talent influx, it seems that this team should start hitting better soon.

Pitching is a different matter.

Speaking of pitching, so far, what was suppose to be "the strength" of the org - developing starters - isn't looking quite as good as some expected I would guess.

Starters sit 23rd overall in fWar and 13th ERA wise. Looks like the rotation is running about middle of the pack so far and that would equate to about a 500 record.

I am not sure who they would bring up that they think is better. But at this point, the little pitching factory seems to be showing some chinks in the armor. Still early, but team stats should be starting to stabilize.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Speaking of pitching, so far, what was suppose to be "the strength" of the org - developing starters - isn't looking quite as good as some expected I would guess.

Starters sit 23rd overall in fWar and 13th ERA wise. Looks like the rotation is running about middle of the pack so far and that would equate to about a 500 record.

I am not sure who they would bring up that they think is better. But at this point, the little pitching factory seems to be showing some chinks in the armor. Still early, but team stats should be starting to stabilize.

Well there's absolutely no way we could keep up the run we were on. Last year, having our guys (Bauer and Bieber) bring home the two Cy Young awards was the pinnacle of the stretch we've been on.

That rotation with Kluber, Cookie, Bauer, Clevinger, Bieber has completely turned over, except for the guy who was fifth in that rotation--he's now our ace and one of the best pitchers in baseball. I said my biggest concern this year was finding out what we actually had in our young starters.

I expect Civale's numbers to improve a little bit, I don't have much faith in Plesac. I don't expect consistency from McKenzie, and I don't know what to expect from Logan Allen.

 

[jup]

GSON said

Of course.. the entire forum knows that the reason Jup would be okay with Quantrill is that he throws hard.. gotta have that !!..

We will refine that a bit Gson - has to throw "reasonably hard"

94-95 for FOR guys works. Below that it starts to become difficult to fill that front of the rotation spot. Takes more than velo, but without velo it becomes a lot harder.

 

[jup]

Well there's absolutely no way we could keep up the run we were on. Last year, having our guys (Bauer and Bieber) bring home the two Cy Young awards was the pinnacle of the stretch we've been on.

That rotation with Kluber, Cookie, Bauer, Clevinger, Bieber has completely turned over, except for the guy who was fifth in that rotation--he's now our ace and one of the best pitchers in baseball. I said my biggest concern this year was finding out what we actually had in our young starters.

I expect Civale's numbers to improve a little bit, I don't have much faith in Plesac. I don't expect consistency from McKenzie, and I don't know what to expect from Logan Allen.

Civale's numbers to improve ???

Boy I don't think you could ask much more out of him than you have gotten so far this year. You are consistently getting about 6 innings of 2 run ball. He is far and away exceeding his predicted WAR production to this point. If anything I think his actual results will regress a little over time.

AND I am huge Civale fan before anybody starts accusing me of being "anti-Indian". But I think if you are asking his actual results to improve, given what periphery numbers tell us, I just think you are asking a lot. That 177 BABIP is going to be hard as hell to keep there going forward

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Civale's numbers to improve ???

Boy I don't think you could ask much more out of him than you have gotten so far this year. You are consistently getting about 6 innings of 2 run ball. He is far and away exceeding his predicted WAR production to this point. If anything I think his actual results will regress a little over time.

AND I am huge Civale fan before anybody starts accusing me of being "anti-Indian". But I think if you are asking his actual results to improve, given what periphery numbers tell us, I just think you are asking a lot. That 177 BABIP is going to hard as hell to keep there going forward

I think he can pitch better. I don't want to talk solely about the results--I want to talk about the things the pitcher can control to get those results.

I think Civale's walks can come down, and his strikeouts can come up. I know last year was a short season, an anomaly, and we don't really know what this kid can be at the major league level, but he posted a 4.31 K/BB ratio last year, which is down to just 2.44 this year.

I don't expect to see improvement from his WHIP (sitting at 0.885 lol) or his ERA (2.42). Those should come up because you're right--he does appear to be very lucky with the balls that are put into play right now.

With Civale's changes he made between last season and this season, I expect to see him continue to improve, grow, and get more comfortable with the adjustments he's made--and then hopefully we can find another set of adjustments that can lead to him being a solid, dependable second or third starter for us.

 

[CDAV45]

Civale's numbers to improve ???

Boy I don't think you could ask much more out of him than you have gotten so far this year. You are consistently getting about 6 innings of 2 run ball. He is far and away exceeding his predicted WAR production to this point. If anything I think his actual results will regress a little over time.

AND I am huge Civale fan before anybody starts accusing me of being "anti-Indian". But I think if you are asking his actual results to improve, given what periphery numbers tell us, I just think you are asking a lot. That 177 BABIP is going to hard as hell to keep there going forward

I think Aaron is still finding himself. His current adjustments are new and I'm sure there will be some bumps in the road. The thing is for me, I've never viewed him as or expected him to be a FOR SP. I thought MOR was his upside with him being a good BOR option for sure. I don't see how that has changed.

Not to change the subject, but I'd like your opinion on something. I think this team needs a rotation piece as I've lost confidence in Allen, McKenzie, and even Quantrill. I by no means think that their respective careers won't be successful, I'm just talking about the "here and now". Having said that jup, do you think that Jon Gray would be a good target in a trade? If so, where do you think he'd fit in this rotation?