2021 Spring Training Thread

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Even accounting for the stronger schedule (which affects everyone in our division) I fail to see how that adds up to .500 against the totality of last season's 10 games over .500.

Last year's 10 games over .500 was for 60 games. Project that to 162 games and we're talking 27 games over .500. I keep thinking how amazing it was that the Tribe had a .583 winning percentage, equivalent to 94.5 wins over a full season, despite everything that went wrong. The team was basically carried by a handful of superlative performances from Bieber, Plesac, Hand, Cesar Hernandez, and Hosey.

But the outfield hit .191, Santana hit .199, Lindor had his worst season, and our catchers had an OPS+ of 27 - worst in recorded history. On top of that Clevinger got traded at mid-season. It's hard to believe they were 35-25 with all those problems. They could realistically be a better team this year. They almost certainly will be more balanced. We won't have a starter with a 1.63 ERA this year but the outfield won't hit .191, either. Last year was a bizarre anomaly.

 

[bushwick_bill]

Frankie 10 years 341 million woh...

 

[WhoAzcue]

Last year's 10 games over .500 was for 60 games. Project that to 162 games and we're talking 27 games over .500. I keep thinking how amazing it was that the Tribe had a .583 winning percentage, equivalent to 94.5 wins over a full season, despite everything that went wrong. The team was basically carried by a handful of superlative performances from Bieber, Plesac, Hand, Cesar Hernandez, and Hosey.

But the outfield hit .191, Santana hit .199, Lindor had his worst season, and our catchers had an OPS+ of 27 - worst in recorded history. On top of that Clevinger got traded at mid-season. It's hard to believe they were 35-25 with all those problems. They could realistically be a better team this year. They almost certainly will be more balanced. We won't have a starter with a 1.63 ERA this year but the outfield won't hit .191, either. Last year was a bizarre anomaly.

Yeah, I realize the 10 over .500 extrapolated to a greater number, but I was giving the pessimists of the benefit of the doubt and just locking it down at 10-over being a reasonable baseline, or 86-76. Naturally, since I'm optimistic about this club overall, 86-76 is my baseline if everything evens out, but if there are some nice surprises, there are some upsides from there, say plus 5 to 7. Some really poor luck might knock us down to .500, but as you so correctly point out, things couldn't have gone worse for this team in many ways in 2020, including losing numerous starts from Plesac and Clevinger, and yet the team still posted a .583 winning percentage. What more could go wrong to knock this team all the way down to .500? I just don't see it.

As far as CATS wondering how the loss of Eloy affects my thinking of CHW, I thought they were overrated heading into this season. I still wonder how Tony LaRussa is going to the team's mental fortitude; I've generally thought Sox results tend to add up to less than than the sum of their parts and wonder: can a Hall of Fame manager change that? The loss of Eloy tests this. Eloy will be missed in the lineup, but I expect the team to score plenty of runs, especially if Moncada regains his footing. Rather than wonder about Eloy, I'd be most concerned about Keuchel coming anywhere near what he did last year and the impact of the departure of Giolito's favorite battery mate. For the White Sox it's always their pitching and defense dragging them down. I'm curious to see if anything has changed this. Can LaRussa change the Sox the way Francona changed the Tribe or has time passed him by?

 

[WhoAzcue]

Frankie 10 years 341 million woh...

As it turns out, he didn't have the guts to carry the MLBPA water. Didn't think he would despite his brave talk. Now I hope he never sees the playoffs again, and playing for the Mets in that division, he just might not. Let's go Braves!

 

[petes999]

For those who want to just extrapolate our 10-game 35-25 season over a full season, you should not do it just based on 162/60 ratio. In this we were 4 games over due to playing the NL Central in 2020 which we do play again this year (12-8). We were 6 games over due to playing the AL Central ( 23-17). The NL Central hasn't improved while AL Central has, compared to what we had to do - so can we even replicate this?

When we went 93-69 in 2019, we were 48-28 - 20 games over vs AL central (76 games 2019 vs 40 in games played in 2020). So say we prorate 40 games to 76 games (round up to even 80 games) to say we can be 12 games over in AL Central using the 6 games over from last year. Right here it shows that from 2019 to 2020, AL central improved and we could not just keep on whipping up wins here alone (20 games in 2019 vs 12 games if prorated in 2020). In my belief, 2021 will be even harder (but will not assume it for now).

Add in, 4-games over on the Central again (same 12-8 in 2020 for 2021), we are 16 more win total (88-72 ). The key is what do we do with the AL East and AL West. We were 8 games over in 2019 but we had a much better team. You have to assume we match 2019 in talent and wins to get to the same 24 games (W-L difference) to get to the record we had in 2019 for 93-69 record. Yet, if we lost ground in the central in 2020 due to losing Kluber, Bieber, Clevinger (for 1/2 season), ..... can we replicate these 2019 ratios in 2021 due to also losing Cookie, Hand, Lindor, Santana, Clevinger (for other 1/2 season)?

Also know that CBS sports has 2 out of 5 writers predicting 4th place in Central vs 3rd place (so it is just not some of us who are pessimistic about same 2019 record). WS odds also have us way back out of playoff hunt (18th place per FanDuel 40-1). You can point to Jiminez injury (which will help) or Pecota projections (instead of FanGraph WAR) but we lost a lot more ground and it will be much harder to generate those 20 wins vs AL Central opponents that we say in 2019 (or just by prorating last year's record). I hope we can do it but being a Browns fan for 30 years, I just have been burned too many times (until recently). Too many things have to go our way.

 

[CATS44]

I think Cleveland fans are dismissing the loss of Jimenez too easily. He won a Silver Slugger last season, and the Chicago plan is to replace him in the field with a combination Leury Garcia (.653 career OPS), Adam Engel (.618 career OPS), and Vaughn, a true rookie who was being looked at as a DH, has never played anything but 1B, and who has never played above A+ (.760 OPS in 29 games). Also in the mix indirectly is Jake Lamb.

If you dont like Jake Bauers, you will really hate these guys.

They also added Adam Eaton this season, a formerly very good player, when healthy.

The rotation consists of three good to very good starters, two of which are senior citizens, a wing and a prayer...and no depth.

If the Chisox stay healthy, they are a formidable team. If they dont...and they've lost a huge piece already...they dont have many resources.

 

[CATS44]

For those who want to just extrapolate our 10-game 35-25 season over a full season, you should not do it just based on 162/60 ratio. In this we were 4 games over due to playing the NL Central in 2020 which we do play again this year (12-8). We were 6 games over due to playing the AL Central ( 23-17). The NL Central hasn't improved while AL Central has, compared to what we had to do - so can we even replicate this?

When we went 93-69 in 2019, we were 48-28 - 20 games over vs AL central (76 games 2019 vs 40 in games played in 2020). So say we prorate 40 games to 76 games (round up to even 80 games) to say we can be 12 games over in AL Central using the 6 games over from last year. Right here it shows that from 2019 to 2020, AL central improved and we could not just keep on whipping up wins here alone (20 games in 2019 vs 12 games if prorated in 2020). In my belief, 2021 will be even harder (but will not assume it for now).

Add in, 4-games over on the Central again (same 12-8 in 2020 for 2021), we are 16 more win total (88-72 ). The key is what do we do with the AL East and AL West. We were 8 games over in 2019 but we had a much better team. You have to assume we match 2019 in talent and wins to get to the same 24 games (W-L difference) to get to the record we had in 2019 for 93-69 record. Yet, if we lost ground in the central in 2020 due to losing Kluber, Bieber, Clevinger (for 1/2 season), ..... can we replicate these 2019 ratios in 2021 due to also losing Cookie, Hand, Lindor, Santana, Clevinger (for other 1/2 season)?

Also know that CBS sports has 2 out of 5 writers predicting 4th place in Central vs 3rd place (so it is just not some of us who are pessimistic about same 2019 record). WS odds also have us way back out of playoff hunt (18th place per FanDuel 40-1). You can point to Jiminez injury (which will help) or Pecota projections (instead of FanGraph WAR) but we lost a lot more ground and it will be much harder to generate those 20 wins vs AL Central opponents that we say in 2019 (or just by prorating last year's record). I hope we can do it but being a Browns fan for 30 years, I just have been burned too many times (until recently). Too many things have to go our way.

Remember, the Indians aren't the Browns. Even when things don't go as planned, they always seem to make things work.

 

[Derek]

I think Cleveland fans are dismissing the loss of Jimenez too easily. He won a Silver Slugger last season, and the Chicago plan is to replace him in the field with a combination Leury Garcia (.653 career OPS), Adam Engel (.618 career OPS), and Vaughn, a true rookie who was being looked at as a DH, has never played anything but 1B, and who has never played above A+ (.760 OPS in 29 games). Also in the mix indirectly is Jake Lamb.

If you dont like Jake Bauers, you will really hate these guys.

They also added Adam Eaton this season, a formerly very good player, when healthy.

The rotation consists of three good to very good starters, two of which are senior citizens, a wing and a prayer...and no depth.

If the Chisox stay healthy, they are a formidable team. If they dont...and they've lost a huge piece already...they dont have many resources.

Jimenez is a big loss for that lineup.

He's out 5-6 months, that's probably 120 games on the low end, and possibly the entire season.

 

[CATS44]

Now, lets take a quick peek at the Twins.

First, there is no doubt that they are favored to win more games than us, if they stay healthy. (I'm looking at you, Josh Donaldson.) Thats not the case I'm trying to make.

But...

Their big advantage is their offense, and fans love to look at all those home runs...and ignore the fact that nobody gets on base before those home runs.

Our offense was awful last year, but our OBP was actually higher.

If the Twins continue what they did last year, they would project to score 726 runs. They basically traded Simmons for Rosario, which knocked Arreaz out of the starting lineup. Arreaz was their highest OBP guy not named Cruz or Donaldson.

Somebody has to get on base, or the Twins are the new version of the old Konerko White Sox. Lots of solo home runs, but not much else.

The Twins will score more runs than the Indians, but that is their big edge. If that margin isn't huge, then our pitching should even things out.

The Twins rotation features only one starter under 32 yrs old...and their depth is a bunch of Adam Plutkos.

 

[DCTribefan]

Jimenez is a big loss for that lineup.

He's out 5-6 months, that's probably 120 games on the low end, and possibly the entire season.

Tell me about-he was on my fantasy team.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Now, lets take a quick peek at the Twins.

First, there is no doubt that they are favored to win more games than us, if they stay healthy. (I'm looking at you, Josh Donaldson.) Thats not the case I'm trying to make.

But...

Their big advantage is their offense, and fans love to look at all those home runs...and ignore the fact that nobody gets on base before those home runs.

Our offense was awful last year, but our OBP was actually higher.

If the Twins continue what they did last year, they would project to score 726 runs. They basically traded Simmons for Rosario, which knocked Arreaz out of the starting lineup. Arreaz was their highest OBP guy not named Cruz or Donaldson.

Somebody has to get on base, or the Twins are the new version of the old Konerko White Sox. Lots of solo home runs, but not much else.

The Twins will score more runs than the Indians, but that is their big edge. If that margin isn't huge, then our pitching should even things out.

The Twins rotation features only one starter under 32 yrs old...and their depth is a bunch of Adam Plutkos.

Last year the Twins were 10th in the A.L. in runs with 269. The Indians were 13th with 248. Despite unprecedented lack of production in five of nine positions in the batting order the Indians were only 21 runs behind the Twins which equates to about one-third of a run per game. The Twins ranked high in home runs and slugging but low in OBP and stolen bases. They didn't get on base a lot and had little speed once they were on.

The Twins were 3rd with 91 home runs but 13 of them are now with the Indians and 16 belonged to Nelson Cruz, who turns 41 this summer. Does Cruz have another big year in him?

The Twins are a fairly old team overall. You're correct in that four of their starters are 32-38 years old. You wonder how many of them are going to make 30 starts this year, or even 24. Josh Donaldson is 35. Cruz is 40. The Twins are heavily dependent on Cruz and Donaldson in the middle of their order plus four older starting pitchers.

They were 10th in scoring last year and lost Rosario, who led the team in RBI's. Sano hit .204 last year, Marwin Gonzalez .211, and Kepler .228. Some of these guys will bounce back and Arraez has been moved to left field, so Andrelton Simmons' bat replaces Rosario's which is a negative, but the defense improves.

The Twins still have a lot of talent but it depends a lot on whether their four older starters can stay healthy and be effective and whether Donaldson and Cruz can have productive seasons and stay in the lineup. Byron Buxton has been in the majors for six years and has only played more than 92 games once.

 

[Criznit]

I think Cleveland fans are dismissing the loss of Jimenez too easily. He won a Silver Slugger last season, and the Chicago plan is to replace him in the field with a combination Leury Garcia (.653 career OPS), Adam Engel (.618 career OPS), and Vaughn, a true rookie who was being looked at as a DH, has never played anything but 1B, and who has never played above A+ (.760 OPS in 29 games). Also in the mix indirectly is Jake Lamb.

If you dont like Jake Bauers, you will really hate these guys.

They also added Adam Eaton this season, a formerly very good player, when healthy.

The rotation consists of three good to very good starters, two of which are senior citizens, a wing and a prayer...and no depth.

If the Chisox stay healthy, they are a formidable team. If they dont...and they've lost a huge piece already...they dont have many resources.

Hold on... Did I read that correctly? Did you just say if you don't like Jake Bauers, you will really hate Andrew Vaughn?

 

[CATS44]

Hold on... Did I read that correctly? Did you just say if you don't like Jake Bauers, you will really hate Andrew Vaughn?

No, the comment was directed to the whole bunch.

As for Vaughn, would you like to see Bobby Bradley playing left field?

 

[Criznit]

No, the comment was directed to the whole bunch.

As for Vaughn, would you like to see Bobby Bradley playing left field?

Yeah - not going to play. I think your hypotheticals are nonsense.

 

[CATS44]

Well, which hypotheticals are nonsense?

Who will replace Jimenez?

Somebody has to take his place.