Some playoff predictions from ESPN. Discuss.
They should be around next week, but after that ...
Cleveland Guardians
No. 3 seed | 91-70 | AL Central champs
Wild-card opponent: Rays (55.5% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 2.9% | Caesars odds: +3500
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 15
How they could stay around longer: The Guardians have drawn comparisons to the 2014-15 Royals for their style of play: Contact hitting, speed, defense ... and a dominant bullpen.
Emmanuel Clase is as good as any closer this side of
Edwin Diaz and the top three setup relievers in front of him --
James Karinchak,
Trevor Stephan and lefty
Sam Hentges -- have all been outstanding. They're hard to hit, they strike batters out and all four are stingy with the home run. The pen has been even better since the beginning of July, with the second-best ERA in the majors behind the Dodgers. Get a lead through five or six and the Guardians almost always hold it. October baseball has become more and more about the bullpens and Cleveland can match up with any team.
-- Schoenfield
How the Guardians found their groove
Cleveland started the season with baseball's youngest roster and finished it with a division title.
Jesse Rogers »
What could send them home before you finish reading this: Lack of power. The Guardians have the fewest home runs of the playoff teams and you win in the playoffs by hitting home runs. Don't buy that? In last year's postseason, the team that hit more home runs went 25-2-10 -- that's 25 wins, two losses and 10 games where the teams hit the same number. No, the Royals didn't hit a lot of home runs in 2014 or 2015, but they
did hit them in the playoffs (and that was an era with fewer home runs in general). It certainly would be fun to see the Guardians scratch and claw their way to the World Series, but more likely they'll have to power up.
-- Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The only American League team that put the ball in play more often than the Astros was the Guardians -- by a pretty sizable margin. Cleveland also stole the third-most bases in the majors and led the sport in going first to third on a single. Putting the ball in play and running the bases both effectively and aggressively is the Guardians' recipe for success in October, not just against the Astros but against everyone. The Astros are the second-best defensive team in the postseason field, according to outs above average. But
Martin Maldonado was below league average in caught-stealing percentage this season. The Guardians need to get on base and they need to run -- and just hope the series doesn't turn into a slugfest.
-- Gonzalez