Baseball doesn’t always make sense. I’ll be quite honest, some crazy shit can happen in baseball and it’s a game of not only momentum but streaks (both good and bad). Look at this year as a prime example… 101 win Mets and Braves bounced. The 111 win Dodgers bounced by an 89 win Padres team. It’s not always the best team that wins. Baseball is unique in that way. How often does a team in the NBA win it all that’s below, say, a 4 seed?
Actually, that’s a good topic to do research on.
Recent NBA champions and seed:
21-22: Warriors (3)
20-21: Bucks (3)
19-20: Lakers (1)
18-19: Raptors (2)
17-18: Warriors (2)
16-17: Warriors (1)
15-16: Cavs (1)
14-15: Warriors (1)
13-14: Spurs (1)
12-13: Heat (1)
11-12: Heat (2)
10-11: Mavs (3)
09-10: Lakers (1)
08-09: Lakers (1)
07-08: Celtics (1)
06-07: Spurs (3)
05-06: Heat (2)
04-05: Spurs (2)
03-04: Pistons (3)
02-03: Spurs (1)
01-02: Lakers (3)
00-01: Lakers (2)
99-00: Lakers (1)
98-99: Spurs (1)
97-98: Bills (1)
96-97: Bulls (1)
95-96: Bulls (1)
In 27 years of data, no seed lower than a 3(!!) has won it all. 15 times (55.6%) of the time, won by a 1 seed, 6 times (22.2%) by a 2 seed, and 6 times by a 3 seed (22.2%). 77.8% by a 1 or 2 seed.
Now let’s look at the NFL…
21-22: Rams (4)
20-21: Buccaneers (5)
19-20: Chiefs (2)
18–19: Patriots (2)
17-18: Eagles (1)
16-17: Patriots (1)
15-16: Broncos (1)
14-15: Patriots (1)
13-14: Seahawks (1)
12-13: Ravens (4)
11-12: Giants (4)
10-11: Packers (6)
09-10: Saints (1)
08-09: Steelers (2)
07-08: Giants (5)
06-07: Colts (3)
05-06: Steelers (6)
04-05: Patriots (2)
03-04: Patriots (1)
02-03: Buccaneers (2)
01-02: Patriots (2)
00-01: Ravens (4)
99-00: Rams (1)
98-99: Broncos (1)
97-98: Broncos (4)
96-97: Packers (1)
95-96: Cowboys (1)
A little more parity here. 12 times (44.4%) in 27 years a 1 seed has won the Super Bowl. 6 times (22.2%) by a 2 seed. 1 time (3.7%) by a 3 seed. 5 times (18.5%) for a 4 seed. 2 times (7.4%) by a 5 seed. And 2 times (7.4%) by a 6 seed. 66.7% of the time has been won by a 1 or 2 seed.
Nooooow let’s look at MLB.
2021: Braves (5)
2020: Dodgers (1)
2019: Nationals (3)
2018: Red Sox (1)
2017: Astros (2)
2016: Cubs (1)
2015: Royals (1)
2014: Giants (5)
2013: Red Sox (1)
2012: Giants (3)
2011: Cardinals (4)
2010: Giants (2)
2009: Yankees (1)
2008: Phillies (2)
2007: Red Sox (1)
2006: Cardinals (4)
2005: White Sox (1)
2004: Red Sox (2)
2003: Marlins (3)
2002: Angels (4)
2001: Diamondbacks (2)
2000: Yankees (3)
1999: Yankees (1)
1998: Yankees (1)
1997: Marlins (4)
1996: Yankees (1)
1995: Braves (1)
One thing to note, MLB playoff structure has changed several times here. Anyway, same number as the NFL for 1 seeds..12 times (44.4%). 5 times (18.5%) for 2 seeds. 4 times (14.8%) for 3 seeds. 4 times for 4 seeds (14.8%). And 2 times (7.4%) for 5 seeds. 63.0% win rate for 1 and 2 seeds.
So, in terms of 1 or 2 seeds winning it all over the last 27 years…
NBA 77.8%
NFL 66.7%
MLB 63.0%