2022 Off-season Thread - The Future is Bright

[mds]

He has definitely lost about 5-6 steps! He showed flashes of the old Bledsoe but for the most part he’s done!

How many steps does someone start out with? How many steps do I have to lose? If you lose all your steps are you just no longer able to walk?

 

[CavsKermit]

What’s going to be interesting is how Okoro and Sexton can or can’t fit together off the bench.

Okoro is still too small to play the three and Sextons not a point guard. I originally thought that spelled the end of Sexton in Cleveland, but after a post that @Smooth made in s34, I realized that I now think Okoro is going to be the guy the front office moves.

We sorely missed Sextons scoring punch. Him off the bench would have been lethal.

One or more guys in the second unit is going to have to be okay with not getting shots if Sexton is the sixth man. One or more guys is going to have to take the more difficult defensive assignments if Sexton is playing sixth man.

It's not Okoro I worry about, he's perfect. Love is the one who the Cavs need to worry about. Sexton needs the spacing players like Love provide, but you can't just use them as decoys on multiple possessions in a row. You need to keep them happy, and more importantly, you need to keep opposing defenses honest.

 

[mds]

Wasn't there beef with Love and Sexton for that reason? Or was that made up?

 

[Randolphkeys]

Wasn't there beef with Love and Sexton for that reason? Or was that made up?

That 2019 team was just a construction nightmare.

Remember how the Finals team ended: Built for LeBron to have a high usage, George Hill running the offense when he was off the court. Once LBJ left, George Hill was trying to force his way off the team. Cedi received his first significant playing time in the NBA and wasn't a point-forward like he could be in Europe. Collin tried to play point guard, but that's not how he plays the game.

So the players who were on the roster to play off the ball like Korver, JR, Rodney Hood, and Love were all furious nobody got them the ball.

Just a mess.

 

[mds]

Ah yes, the post-LBJ dumster fire. We're lucky we have a team at all.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Seth Partnow of The Athletic has a series of columns on the top 125 players in the NBA, ranked in tiers 1-5. He started with Tier 5. Seth will reveal the rest of the tiers as we go through the week.

Tier 1 is just seven players. Tier 2 consists of 12 players, Tier 3 is 21 players, etc.

Here is a comment about how he groups the players into tiers.

A final comment before getting to the list of players in Tier 5: As time goes by, what might be called my basketball system of values continues to evolve based on the NBA game changing in ways that favor different skill sets — and as I (sometimes repeatedly) learn hard lessons about what works.

For example, in the past, I’ve overrated the specialist. It is no longer enough to simply have a single elite NBA skill and be a high-level contributor without doing more. If one were to create a continuum of NBA wing play, you wouldn’t be too far wrong to have Duncan Robinson and Matisse Thybulle take up either end of the spectrum. Whether deep shooting or defense, these two certainly possess that single elite attribute.

Yet their deficiencies in other areas dramatically reduced their ability to impact (and in Robinson’s case, even get on the floor) in high-level playoff series. Instead, having a degree of versatility — the malleability to function in different lineups and against different styles of opposition — has increasingly become more important in the NBA. There is room on a contender’s roster for situational options — an extra big body to deploy against the Sixers or Bucks, a ball-hawking backup point guard in anticipation of facing the Warriors or Suns. But having a special club in the bag doesn’t mean it’s one you expect to swing often, and this list is about outlasting all 29 other teams, not just providing some defensive resistance against Steph Curry specifically.

The main effect of this is that bigs have taken a hit in my estimation relative to perimeter players and especially wings. I don’t totally subscribe to many of the notions around the evils of drop coverage, or that non-switchable bigs aren’t playable. But a player being exploitable himself without having a concurrent rock-paper-scissors advantage over another group of players borders on disqualifying him.....

If there is a player type I’m lower on than consensus, it is the moderate- or low-efficiency bucket getter who doesn’t bring much value in other areas. While more shot creation is not a bad thing, top teams generally need complementary skills much more. So if you wonder why players with modest counting stats such as Alex Caruso make the list over some others, this is the reason.

Two Cavaliers made the 41-man Tier 5 list; Love and Markkanen. Since it's a 30-team league with 150 starters, about 80% of the starters make one of the five tiers.

One Cav dropped off last year's Tier 5 list; Collin Sexton.

The interesting thing to me is his comment about specialists being overrated. He specifically mentioned the Sixers' Matisse Thybulle, a perimeter defense specialist who averaged 5.7 mpg in 25 minutes per game. Isaac Okoro falls into the same category.

"It is no longer enough to simply have a single elite NBA skill and be a high-level contributor without doing more."

If that is the case then Okoro's value to the Cavs is limited and they were pretty dumb to take him with the 5th overall pick.

The comment about bigs taking "a hit" is concerning since the Cavs have so many of them, but he specifically mentioned "non-switchable bigs", which doesn't include Mobley, Allen, and Markkanen.

Finally, there's "the moderate- or low-efficiency bucket getter who doesn’t bring much value in other areas. While more shot creation is not a bad thing, top teams generally need complementary skills much more."

IOW, a Collin Sexton type. While Sexton dropping out of Tier 5 may have been due to his barely playing last year, his role as a "moderate-efficiency shot creator who doesn't bring much value in other areas" reduces his value.

This makes me wonder if either Okoro or Sexton will have a significant role on the Cavs once they are in position to challenge for a place in the Finals.

 

[Swuul]

Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen all seem to be in tier 4A.

 

[daytripper]

@Wham with the Right Hand I do consider Sexton to be high efficiency so I'm assuming the injury was a big reason he fell off the list not to mention his minutes would've gotten reduced anyway. Your list is another reason why I wasn't thrilled about the Ochai pick. If he just turns out to be more of a one dimensional shooter type he's potentially another player that is going to have a limited impact ceiling moving forward.

 

[dark2332]

@Wham with the Right Hand I do consider Sexton to be high efficiency so I'm assuming the injury was a big reason he fell off the list not to mention his minutes would've gotten reduced anyway. Your list is another reason why I wasn't thrilled about the Ochai pick. If he just turns out to be more of a one dimensional shooter type he's potentially another player that is going to have a limited impact ceiling moving forward.

Can’t necessarily put him with a Duncan Robinson—Agbaji has the makings of a solid NBA defender.

If Robinson was the athlete and defender Agbaji was, he would be exponentially more valuable.

Now, it’s fair to wonder if Agbaji becomes as good of a shooter as Robinson, but I do think—despite limitations—his offensive game is more well-rounded than someone like Robinson.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

@Wham with the Right Hand I do consider Sexton to be high efficiency so I'm assuming the injury was a big reason he fell off the list not to mention his minutes would've gotten reduced anyway. Your list is another reason why I wasn't thrilled about the Ochai pick. If he just turns out to be more of a one dimensional shooter type he's potentially another player that is going to have a limited impact ceiling moving forward.

I believe the key to these "one-dimensional" types is that they develop new dimensions, i.e., Ochai evolving into a good perimeter defender as well as a deadly outside shooter, or Okoro adding some offense and more rebounding to his game.

When it came down to the final, win-or-go-home game against Atlanta, JBB went with Allen, Mobley, Markkanen, Garland and LeVert. They all played at least 37 minutes. Okoro came off the bench for 22 minutes. I think that's the lineup at the start of training camp this year with Sexton, Okoro, and Ochai having to earn minutes.

It will be interesting to see the battle for the starting 2 between LeVert and Sexton. I think Sexton is the better player but he doesn't pair well with Garland and they may want to use him as a Jordan Clarkson type scorer off the bench.

I also want to see them run more of the offense through Mobley at the elbow with Garland, Sexton, and LeVert rubbing their defenders off screens and getting passes on the move while Allen posts up his man down low.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I think the model they could be looking at is the 92-79 win on the road against the Clippers before Sexton was injured. Collin started and played 38 minutes, was 12-for-20 from the field, scored 26 points with 7 rebounds and 3 steals, and was a +17 for the game.

Garland and Rubio split the point guard duties, each playing 28 minutes and were +10 and +15. Love had 10 points and 10 rebounds off the bench. The other starters besides Sexton played 28-34 minutes. Stevens was a +15 in 21 minutes off the bench. It was a team win with a lot of players contributing but nobody dominating the action. Sexton and Garland worked well together and the Clippers scored just 79 points.

This may be what they have in mind to start this season. Or they could be thinking LeVert will start with Sexton pairing with Neto and eventually Rubio off the bench. It's going to be really interesting to see what lineup JBB starts with and how the lineup evolves as the season goes along and Rubio returns.

Will Agbaji be able to wrest minutes away from Okoro and Stevens? How will they find minutes for Dean Wade with Mobley and Love ahead of him at PF and Allen and Robin Lopez taking all the minutes at center?

The biggest vulnerability is if Garland gets injured early because Neto is not a starter.

 

[foucault87]

@Wham with the Right Hand , why do you consider Sexton a one dimensional player? He has some clear weaknesses- not the best playmaker for others or defender. I dont expect him to be an elite rebounder at his height.

However, he is multidimensional as a three level scorer. Good 3pt shooter who can create off the dribble or off the catch. Elite driver and strong rim finisher in the half court and very high level in transition. And of course, all those drives get him to the line a lot more than someone like Garland. He is a versatile threat on offense.

Id like him to shore up some of those weaknesses on d and passing wise, but we know he at least is good on the kickout pass and a solid PoA guy so there is a foundation to build on. He is a top 125 player in my mind and probably a top 40 guard

 

[Ohioplayer00]

Wasn't there beef with Love and Sexton for that reason? Or was that made up?

That was his rookie year when Love and TT had an issue with his “pounding the ball and free lancing”.

 

[sailfish]

I think the model they could be looking at is the 92-79 win on the road against the Clippers before Sexton was injured. Collin started and played 38 minutes, was 12-for-20 from the field, scored 26 points with 7 rebounds and 3 steals, and was a +17 for the game.

Garland and Rubio split the point guard duties, each playing 28 minutes and were +10 and +15. Love had 10 points and 10 rebounds off the bench. The other starters besides Sexton played 28-34 minutes. Stevens was a +15 in 21 minutes off the bench. It was a team win with a lot of players contributing but nobody dominating the action. Sexton and Garland worked well together and the Clippers scored just 79 points.

This may be what they have in mind to start this season. Or they could be thinking LeVert will start with Sexton pairing with Neto and eventually Rubio off the bench. It's going to be really interesting to see what lineup JBB starts with and how the lineup evolves as the season goes along and Rubio returns.

Will Agbaji be able to wrest minutes away from Okoro and Stevens? How will they find minutes for Dean Wade with Mobley and Love ahead of him at PF and Allen and Robin Lopez taking all the minutes at center?

The biggest vulnerability is if Garland gets injured early because Neto is not a starter.

If that’s true then why the heck did they draft Agbaji, as he won’t be able to get minutes behind LeVert/Sexton and Okoro likely won’t either?? It doesn’t make much sense, as the need was at SF. They should’ve then then taken Eason or traded down for Beauchamp or Watson.

It’s really tough to understand what this team is doing with so many SG’s and not nearly enough minutes to go around. They will destroy Okoro’s value and confidence by not playing him. How does that help the team??

 

[Cavatt]

Okoro could get himself out of that tier if he would just attack more and shoot more. His volume is so damn low.

I see a lot of his hesitation in the way Darius also played in his 2nd year. We were screaming, "Shoot the 3, Darius!" at the screen and he would pass up wide open 3's to keep the ball moving.

Hope that is just youth, but the rubber meets the road this year for Okoro.