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2022 Predictions: National Media only

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Just curious.. how can you possibly argue for or against a projection from Fangraphs?.. I don't get it..
Does it make sense that he'd go from 90 to 110? If not then it doesn't make sense.

It'd be easier to argue if I knew what the inputs were into that projection. Maybe something there would stand out.
 
Does it make sense that he'd go from 90 to 110? If not then it doesn't make sense.

It'd be easier to argue if I knew what the inputs were into that projection. Maybe something there would stand out.
I'm going to guess the inputs are just as subjective as the resulting projections.. sort of a "...dog chasing it's tail..." systemic anomoly designed to create confusion and arguments?...
 
I'm going to guess the inputs are just as subjective as the resulting projections.. sort of a "...dog chasing it's tail..." systemic anomoly designed to create confusion and arguments?...
I'm guessing the inputs were mostly automatic so by digging deeper you'd theoretically be able to untangle the mess and understand why it's outputting what it's outputting. The misfiring projection system seems to be Steamer, but it's behind a paywall.

Of the projection systems listed in Fangraphs, ZiPS DC (should be identical to ZiPS only with different playing time) and THE BAT X performed the best and overall better than Steamer (wRC of 119), so I'd rather just take the average of them if I really just go pure projections. They both have him at a wRC+ of 101. I'd imagine though that they aren't factoring in that he's coming off a terrible injury. 101 seems fairly reasonable if you erased the injury...

I thought I saw somewhere that Fangraphs just uses an average of Steamer and ZiPS which would get you to 110 (119 + 101 / 2).
 
ESPN.com take on Guardians

20. Cleveland Guardians

Projected record: 77-85 (15% playoff odds)

If everything goes right ...
They start the season by signing Jose Ramirez to a long-term extension. Shane Bieber returns to his Cy Young form of 2020 and Triston McKenzie (3.65 ERA over his final 10 starts last year) makes The Leap and becomes a dominant starter. Emmanuel Clase is the best closer in the game. The offense scrapes together just enough runs and -- with the White Sox disappointing -- the Guardians steal the AL Central title with 90 wins. -- Schoenfield
Weakness that could stop them:For all the hand-wringing we tend to do over Cleveland's outfield, this year's group at least looks athletic. It will be well-situated to provide defensive help for the Guardians' pitching staff. But beyond Ramirez's all-around game and Franmil Reyes' power bat, the offense is questionable. Getting guys on base, for starters, looks to be a real problem. There are some young hitters who could take a leap -- Amed Rosario, Josh Naylor, Bobby Bradley, for starters. For Cleveland to contend, some of them are going to have to do just that. -- Doolittle

Most likely 2022 award winner: There isn't a whole lot to celebrate about the current Guardians -- but there is Jose Ramirez. The 29-year-old infielder finished within the top three in MVP voting three times from 2017 to 2020 and finished sixth last year, when he combined an adjusted OPS of 141 with 36 home runs and 27 stolen bases. He's a premium defender who can run and hit for power. Since 2016, only Mike Trout and Mookie Betts have accumulated more fWAR among position players. -- Gonzalez

One (realistic) bold prediction: Outfielder Steven Kwan hits .304 to become the first qualified rookie to hit .300 for the Indians since Dale Mitchell in 1947. -- Schoenfield
 
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Fivethirtyeight.com predicts the Guardians have a 26% chance of making playoffs.

 
Fivethirtyeight.com predicts the Guardians have a 26% chance of making playoffs.


I can respect their evaluations...
 

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