So, I guess some people play poker on bluffing ... just go all in and keep on going in no matter your hand..... only to blow their wad too early and have nothing when you get 3 ACES without even drawing more (Williams, Espino, Clase and maybe Burns, Allen Jr, Battenfield ....as you kings/Queens).
I never said I didn't want to go to the playoff because we are unlikely to go far. I said I DO NOT want to waste our future assets because we are unlikely to go far based on our current pitching.
I said that if we needed a RF because we are in the hunt due to our pitching getting better by trade deadline, we can get one for CHEAP in July/August. And, as pitching is bound to get better, statistically, our hitting will regress some (but not to prior year levels). It is just stats and math and odds. And, I SAID we had a better chance with Espino/Williams/Burns and Allen JR .... than Plesac, Civale and hurt Bieber (but was encouraged by his last start).
I have said in the past that I like the FO approach of not going all in on guys until we have the cornerstones of a WS team like 2016. I have said that yes, some teams like KC will get lucky and draw that straight flush with 3 cards to win the big hand at the end of the night but more often than not teams waste their assets like Texas this year with 2 big FA too early and things never materialize. With limited assets, we cannot be like Texas but need to be more calculated.
But, again just like others put words in my mouth, I am fine that you think I want to watch the Gaurdians to lose (I have probably watched all but 4-7 games so far live and those were West coast or Softball night with my daughter). But, I know I am different than a lot of people and thus said ..."But, I know I differ from others, a playoff run that ends with barely 1 win in first series is not good enough for me. I rather keep our surplus till we have 1-2 (maybe 3) holes to fill." WHERE did I say I wanted them to not make the playoffs? If they make it ... I will be a big cheerleader for them.
But, what I have said and the FO modus operandi is to only do the big spend for situations like the 2016 run when we had the 4th best odds at the All-Star break to win WS (some other sites may have had us top-8). Thus, we bought 2 key pieces to our run (only to have one/LuCroy back out). I even cheered the move and said if you are going to overspend from prospect wise (go all in) ... get both. Hell Yes!!!
It’s October, which means it’s playoff baseball time. Only two teams remain, with the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians battling it out to prove who is the best team in baseball. Here is how the lines have moved throughout the season for the 10 teams that qualified for the playoffs.
www.oddsshark.com
But, we also forget as fans what Bimbo said about FO spending that somewhere around $100 million is our sweat spot (you can look for it if you want to be more precise). We will sometimes operate under it when we have a lot of young talent (like 2022 and 2023) and over it when we can make a run like in 2016 era (maybe for 2024 and 25, 26 based on how I see the prospect pipeline busting). But, we are not going to have unlimited payroll for ever. Yes, I would love a Santander/Hayes or other power RF (that will cost $5 mill, $10 mill or $15 million over next 3 years if we go all out on someone better) if we had unlimited means but we don't even have that even with what appears to be a lower current payroll (as no one cares about 2024 payroll under this 2022 playoff or bust scenario).
I have posted in the past that most of our payroll increases under this current model of players will hit Guaridians limit in 2024 even without adding anyone and getting rid of dead weight like Hedges, Rosario, Mercado, etc. ... gets worse if we add stud RF that will cost us $15+ million in 2024.
2023 Not an issue at $70 million projected - Details -- Per SportRac we are at $67 million this year 2022 with $22 million salary for Ramirez per final contract (signing bonus or whatever). Jose goes back to $14 million next year so $59 million ... but we add Quantrill, Naylor and Maile to Arb-1 status so $3-4 million range. We can probably ditch Hedges $4 million and ditch Rosario $5 million (unless you want to keep them for a playoff run)? But, we also got to bump Bieber from $5 million to maybe $10-12 million for Arb 2 and Reyes $4.55 to maybe $8-$9 (so net about $9-10 million as Quant, Naylor and Maile increase is offset by loss of Hedges and Rosario - figure one catcher with Lavastida). This is not the problem as we are at $70 million for 2023....
2024 - Payroll becomes a problem at $110 million with Reyes and Bieber -- Details: Add $3 for Ramirez, $2 for Straw, $1 for Clase ... another $8-$10 for both Reyes and Bieber and maybe add $8 million for Quantril and Naylor for Arb-2, the big issue is we have 8 players who will hit that $3-$4 million Arb-1 area that are in our core Kar, Gimenez, Plesac, Civale, McK, Stephan, Sandlin, Hentges so that is maybe $20+ million as we drop Maile and maybe 1 reliever. So here is $40+ million (maybe up to $50 million).... to bring that $70 million to $110 million at our normal end of our spending limit (even without adding a RF in arbitration years).
And following year 2025, it gets worse but guess we lose Beiber and Reyes to FA in 2025 ... unless we can resign one or both ... but payroll then becomes $130-$140 range (the spending FO will do only if we have legit shot at winning which may start) w even losing one and not Adding a RF. But, ohh well, it is only money .... maybe new owner will spend $170 million for Ramirez, Reyes, Bieber, Hayes (or other RF). It is nice to say we should add an Arb-1 RF with 3 years to play but were does our payroll get stretched to add his $10 million - $20 million payroll for next 2-3 years? If it fine to dream, but the devil and reality is in the details. This is why I said rental bat come trade deadline as we need a robust farm system to then add cheap bats to complement Williams and Espino et all come 2024-2028. Or, we can go all out for 2022, 2023 and 2024 to blow it up soon there after as we hit the FO max on payroll in 2024/25 (as our years in contention) just as our young pitching hit their prime years.
And so ... per the poster, I hope the Reds just kick our ass come Tuesday .... because "Many on here openly say that they don't want to make the playoffs, because we are unlikely to go far. Are you guys nuts?"
