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2022 Season Series #28 | White Sox @ Guardians | July 11-13, 2022

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Wham with the Right Hand

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After the worst road trip in years, going 1-6 against the 4th and 5th place teams in their division, the G’s return home for four games in three days against the White Sox, who they lead by one-half game. The Guardians are 4-1 against the Sox this year. The Sox are 22-18 on the road while the Guardians are 20-17 at home so it looks like two evenly matched teams.

The Sox started 11-13 and have since gone 30-30. The Guardians were 5-5, 14-14, 25-25, and now 41-42. Two mediocre teams in a weak division with only one team over .500.

The Sox rank 20th in runs per game despite ranking 5th in batting average. The main reason is they are dead last in drawing walks. This is a free swinging bunch and the Guardian pitchers should try and make them chase.

The Sox rank 26th of 30 in home runs per game, 22nd in slugging percentage, and 20th in stolen bases per game. Not a lot of power, speed, or plate discipline, but they do get hits. The key is to not let them string hits together.

The Sox hit lefties much better than righties (.286/.796 versus .248/.665). That bodes well for the G’s since they will start Quantrill, Bieber, and Civale. I’m assuming Pilkington will start one of the doubleheader games tomorrow so that will be a tough one to win.

Lance Lynn, a 35-year-old right-hander, makes his sixth start of the season tonight after returning from injury. He is 1-1, 5.33. Lefties are hitting .327/.889 against him. I think he missed a lot of spring training so he’s still trying to find his groove. With runners on base opponents are hitting .361/1.038 against him, so the key is to put him in the stretch. However, he knows how to bear down and escape jams as batters are hitting just .222 with RISP and .182 with RISP and two out. Getting on base and clutch hitting will be key, along with stacking the batting order with lefties.
Jose is 6-for-17 with three home runs against Lynn.

Lynn is listed at 6'5", 280. Between him and Abreu you do not want to start any fights with this team. If you get hit, say thank you very much and take your base.

Quantrill is coming off one of his worst starts of the season as he allowed 8 hits and 2 walks against the Tigers in 4.1 innings. In May he allowed 4 runs in 6.1 innings against the Sox. Luis Robert is 4-for-8 against him.

Looking at the WAR of White Sox players, Abreu leads with 2.3 followed by Tim Anderson at 1.8 and Robert at 1.7. Nobody else is higher than 0.7 so three players have pretty much been carrying them. Fortunately they all hit right-handed which explains why the Sox are so much better against left-handed pitching.

With the Guardians having five right-handers in their rotation (except on double-header days) they match up well against the Sox, who are hitting only .193/.547 against the G’s in five games, resulting in a 1-4 record.

Hopefully Quantrill will bounce back tonight while Lynn will continue to get hit hard by lefties and we’ll start off with a win. The marquee pitching matchup will be Bieber against Cease tomorrow unless they pitch in different games. Then it’s Giolito (2-3, 5.30) against Civale in the finale.

Congratulations to Jose on his fourth All-Star selection and to our rookie All-Stars Gimenez and Clase. Hopefully we can find some useful work for Clase over the next three days.
 
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These teams may be dead even this year but they are clearly going in opposite directions. The White Sox have five pitchers over age 30, including Cueto, 36, Lynn, 35, and Joe Kelly, 34.

Infielders Jose Abreu and Josh Harrington are both 35 and Leury Garcia is 31. AJ Pollock is 34. All these guys are playing nearly every day. Cueto is their second best starting pitcher in terms of ERA.

The White Sox payroll this year is $195 million. In general they are an old, overpaid, underperforming team. Obviously injuries to Lynn (5 starts so far) and Eloy Jimenez (52 at-bats) have hurt.

Their best offensive player, Jose Abreu, will be a 36-year-old free agent next year. Cueto will also be a free agent.

Also, the White Sox rank 27th defensively according to Fangraphs' metrics. We've seen their fielding issues in the five games played so far between these teams.

In terms of age and payroll the Sox are in a "win now" mode and the division is up for grabs. Eloy Jimenez is finally back after missing 10 weeks and Lance Lynn is back. I can see them being buyers at the deadline.
 
“Two mediocre teams in a weak division“ says it all….
People keep saying the best players long term are still in the miners. Seems like the 2024 version should be vastly better than the current one. Not only will more guys be up, but the current young players should be much better.

It's tough to be a contender when you have automatic outs in the lineup. Hopefully that stops next season.
 
A lineup I would like to see this year....

1. Kwan CF
2. Rosario SS
3. Ramirez 3B
4. Naylor 1B
5. Reyes DH
6. Gimenez 2B
7. Gonzalez LF
8. Jones RF
9. Hedges/Maile C

I'm tired of watching Straw fly out to right field every time he swings at a fastball and Owen Miller butcher first base while hitting for little average and zero power. This lineup has six hitters in a row who can punish you for making a bad pitch and two guys up front who can get on pretty consistently and run well.

Heck, we might even see our first home run of the season by a left fielder.
 
Amed Rosario in high leverage spots this season:

120/185/160 for a wRc+ of -2

He continues to suck vs RHP (665 OPS, despite the HR off a hitter) and leads the team in GIDP. He's a true no2 hitter, as in a turd that just can't be flushed down and he shows up late in games going through the order instead of our best hitters (Jose, Gimenez, Naylor).

He is very much a problem and hopefully traded in a few weeks.
 
Fangraphs has the Guardians ranked 17th and the White Sox 22nd for the week of July 4-10.

The Tigers are up to 23rd after six straight wins against the G's and White Sox.
 
Amed Rosario in high leverage spots this season:

120/185/160 for a wRc+ of -2

He continues to suck vs RHP (665 OPS, despite the HR off a hitter) and leads the team in GIDP. He's a true no2 hitter, as in a turd that just can't be flushed down and he shows up late in games going through the order instead of our best hitters (Jose, Gimenez, Naylor).

He is very much a problem and hopefully traded in a few weeks.
Amed is hitting .276 with nobody on, .275 with runners on, and .292 with RISP. He is having problems with RISP and two out where he's hitting just .206 (6-for-29).

His problem Is lack of walks (17 in 312 at-bats) and lack of power (4 home runs - one off a non-pitcher). Based on analytics that indicate your best hitter should bat #2 in the order (like Trout in LA), I am revising my dream batting order.

1. Kwan CF
2. Ramirez 3B
3. Naylor 1B
4. Reyes DH
5. Gimenez 2B
6. Gonzalez LF
7. Jones RF
8. Rosario SS
9. Hedges/Maile C
 
Amed is hitting .276 with nobody on, .275 with runners on, and .292 with RISP. He is having problems with RISP and two out where he's hitting just .206 (6-for-29).

His problem Is lack of walks (17 in 312 at-bats) and lack of power (4 home runs - one off a non-pitcher). Based on analytics that indicate your best hitter should bat #2 in the order (like Trout in LA), I am revising my dream batting order.

1. Kwan CF
2. Ramirez 3B
3. Naylor 1B
4. Reyes DH
5. Gimenez 2B
6. Gonzalez LF
7. Jones RF
8. Rosario SS
9. Hedges/Maile C

We arent going to see that...
 
Amed is hitting .276 with nobody on, .275 with runners on, and .292 with RISP. He is having problems with RISP and two out where he's hitting just .206 (6-for-29).

His problem Is lack of walks (17 in 312 at-bats) and lack of power (4 home runs - one off a non-pitcher). Based on analytics that indicate your best hitter should bat #2 in the order (like Trout in LA), I am revising my dream batting order.

1. Kwan CF
2. Ramirez 3B
3. Naylor 1B
4. Reyes DH
5. Gimenez 2B
6. Gonzalez LF
7. Jones RF
8. Rosario SS
9. Hedges/Maile C
I heard Rosario isn't one of the problems...

Good thing Rocchio is looking good in Akron.

The sooner we net someone for Amed, the better. Preferably a young controllable arm in the pen.
 
Alex Call is up but not in the starting lineup. Maybe he'll pinch hit for the catcher.
 

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