2022 Season | Series #38 | White Sox @ Guardians | Aug. 19-21

[Wham with the Right Hand]

After a much needed day off at home with no travel the Guardians take on the White Sox in an important three-game weekend series. The Sox got blasted by Houston 21-5 yesterday and are now in third place, 2.5 games out. The Guardians hold an 8-5 lead in the season series with a cumulative score of 67-49.

The White Sox have played 11 games in the last 10 days with no days off, plus they traveled last night. The Guardians were off yesterday, so advantage G's.

The Sox are 15-12 in the second half against a pretty easy schedule. Breaking it down by opponent:

KC 3-4

Texas 2-2

Detroit 3-0

Colorado 1-1

Cleveland 2-2

Houston 2-2

Oakland 2-1

Other than sweeping the last place Tigers they have been treading water in the second half.

Tim Anderson (.301/.734) is out and Luis Robert (.301/.790) is day-to-day with a wrist problem.

The Sox have been a little better on the road (31-27) than at home. They hit left-handed pitching much better than right-handed and on the season are hitting just .218/.610 against the Guardians, well below their overall line of .259/.700. Without Anderson and possibly Robert they will be even more challenged to score this weekend. They will have to contend with McKenzie, Bieber, and Civale.

Here are how the teams match up in the Fangraphs WAR rankings since the All-Star break:

Offense: Cleveland 9th, Chicago 15th

Defense: Cleveland 2nd, Chicago 29th

Pitching: Cleveland 4th, Chicago 7th

Base running: Cleveland 2nd, Chicago 23rd

Overall: Cleveland 4th, Chicago 16th

Yep, Fangraphs has the Guardians as the 4th best team in the majors since the break. They are 17-11.

This has all the earmarks of a low scoring series. Both teams have been pitching extremely well since the break. Both teams have very strong starters; no minor league fill-ins for either team this weekend. The G’s bullpen leads the majors in WAR since the break at 2.2. The next closest team is 1.5. The Sox are at 1.0 but that probably goes down after they got annililated by Houston yesterday.

The Sox are being kept afloat by their pitching. In their 15 wins since the break they have allowed just 31 runs.

Luis Robert is batting .393 against Cleveland this year so if he can’t go it will have an impact. The Sox have some hot hitters: Eloy Jimenez is hitting .406/.958 in August, DH Andrew Vaughn .339/.943, and Jose Abreu .354/.847.

The Guardians are so far superior in terms of defense and base running that they should have the edge in close games since an error or being able to take an extra base or steal a bag can often be the difference in a one-run game.

Lance Lynn (3-5, 5.62) goes for the Sox tonight. Lynn missed the first two months of the season and got knocked around in his first few starts, but is rounding into form having allowed just 11 runs in his last 5 starts. On July 23 he went six shutout innings against the G’s, allowing three hits. Lynn has allowed just two walks in his last six starts, so you have to hit your way on.

Lynn has a 7.46 ERA on the road this year. You have to get him early in the count because if he gets two strikes it’s over. His BAA’s in the two-strike counts are:

0-2 .059 (1-for-17)

1-2 .156

2-2 .179

3-2 .207

This tells me that once he gets two strikes the next pitch will be out of the zone (especially if it’s 0-2). The Guardians need to just take the two-strike pitch unless it’s 3-2 because they’re not going to get a hittable pitch. A big key will be not chasing bad pitches with two strikes. Take the ball and get into a better count.

Here are his BAA’s when the ball is put on play on the non-two-strike counts:

0-0 .333

0-1 .400

1-0 .500

1-1 .450

2-0 .000 (0-for-4)

2-1 .412

3-1 .429

IOW, if you get ahead of Lynn and make him throw a strike you can hammer him. If you get down in the count you’re pretty much dead meat. The Guards need to jump him early in the count - in the first three pitches.

McKenzie also faced the Sox on July 23 and allowed one run in 5.2 innings. He has a 1.82 ERA in July/August and a 2.81 home ERA for the season. He still has a problem with RISP (.322/.938) but allows few baserunners (.257 OBP).

Bieber faces off against Cueto (5-5, 2.78) on Saturday and Civale goes against Dylan Cease (12-5, 2.09) on Sunday. I won’t be surprised to see three close, low-scoring games that are decided late by defense, base running, the bullpens, and clutch hitting.

The G’s have 35 home runs at the Prog in 55 games. They should start improving on that, hopefully this weekend.

 

[CATS44]

Lynn goes 6 IP like clockwork, and usually around 90 pitches.

In his last four starts...vs Oak, KC, KC, and Det (3 at home)...his ERA is 4.18.

Yesterday's game probably cost them three relievers for at least the first two games, but the others haven't been overworked lately, since their rotation has eaten a fair amount of innings.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Not a must-win series.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Lynn goes 6 IP like clockwork, and usually around 90 pitches.

In his last four starts...vs Oak, KC, KC, and Det (3 at home)...his ERA is 4.18.

Yesterday's game probably cost them three relievers for at least the first two games, but the others haven't been overworked lately, since their rotation has eaten a fair amount of innings.

That last reliever yesterday was their second baseman.

 

[macbdog]

Not a must-win series.

Must win series.

 

[CATS44]

The next big date to look at is Sept 4th.

If we are close at that point, the schedule turns dramatically in our favor.

We will have finished a stretch of 15 games against contenders.

After Sept 4th, Minnesota has 18 of 30 on the road, starting with four in NY. Five of eight against us.

Chicago has 16 of 27 on the road, three at home against us. They have two trips to the West Coast, including series at Seattle and SD.

We will have only 12 of 29 on the road, with only a three game series at home vs TB among non division contenders.

Our final six games are at home vs KC.

Minnesota will be on the road vs Det and Chi.

Chi will have three at San Diego and finish at home vs the Twins.

*********

At some point soon, its time to establish a regular lineup. Jose, Amed, Gimenez, Kwan, Straw, and Gonzalez should be playing nearly every day. Naylor should be playing when his body allows.

Rotate most of them thru the DH spot to give them a breather.

Righties, lefties, it doesnt matter.

 

[DCTribefan]

After a much needed day off at home with no travel the Guardians take on the White Sox in an important three-game weekend series. The Sox got blasted by Houston 21-5 yesterday and are now in third place, 2.5 games out. The Guardians hold an 8-5 lead in the season series with a cumulative score of 67-49.

The White Sox have played 11 games in the last 10 days with no days off, plus they traveled last night. The Guardians were off yesterday, so advantage G's.

The Sox are 15-12 in the second half against a pretty easy schedule. Breaking it down by opponent:

KC 3-4

Texas 2-2

Detroit 3-0

Colorado 1-1

Cleveland 2-2

Houston 2-2

Oakland 2-1

Other than sweeping the last place Tigers they have been treading water in the second half.

Tim Anderson (.301/.734) is out and Luis Robert (.301/.790) is day-to-day with a wrist problem.

The Sox have been a little better on the road (31-27) than at home. They hit left-handed pitching much better than right-handed and on the season are hitting just .218/.610 against the Guardians, well below their overall line of .259/.700. Without Anderson and possibly Robert they will be even more challenged to score this weekend. They will have to contend with McKenzie, Bieber, and Civale.

Here are how the teams match up in the Fangraphs WAR rankings since the All-Star break:

Offense: Cleveland 9th, Chicago 15th

Defense: Cleveland 2nd, Chicago 29th

Pitching: Cleveland 4th, Chicago 7th

Base running: Cleveland 2nd, Chicago 23rd

Overall: Cleveland 4th, Chicago 16th

Yep, Fangraphs has the Guardians as the 4th best team in the majors since the break. They are 17-11.

This has all the earmarks of a low scoring series. Both teams have been pitching extremely well since the break. Both teams have very strong starters; no minor league fill-ins for either team this weekend. The G’s bullpen leads the majors in WAR since the break at 2.2. The next closest team is 1.5. The Sox are at 1.0 but that probably goes down after they got annililated by Houston yesterday.

The Sox are being kept afloat by their pitching. In their 15 wins since the break they have allowed just 31 runs.

Luis Robert is batting .393 against Cleveland this year so if he can’t go it will have an impact. The Sox have some hot hitters: Eloy Jimenez is hitting .406/.958 in August, DH Andrew Vaughn .339/.943, and Jose Abreu .354/.847.

The Guardians are so far superior in terms of defense and base running that they should have the edge in close games since an error or being able to take an extra base or steal a bag can often be the difference in a one-run game.

Lance Lynn (3-5, 5.62) goes for the Sox tonight. Lynn missed the first two months of the season and got knocked around in his first few starts, but is rounding into form having allowed just 11 runs in his last 5 starts. On July 23 he went six shutout innings against the G’s, allowing three hits. Lynn has allowed just two walks in his last six starts, so you have to hit your way on.

Lynn has a 7.46 ERA on the road this year. You have to get him early in the count because if he gets two strikes it’s over. His BAA’s in the two-strike counts are:

0-2 .059 (1-for-17)

1-2 .156

2-2 .179

3-2 .207

This tells me that once he gets two strikes the next pitch will be out of the zone (especially if it’s 0-2). The Guardians need to just take the two-strike pitch unless it’s 3-2 because they’re not going to get a hittable pitch. A big key will be not chasing bad pitches with two strikes. Take the ball and get into a better count.

Here are his BAA’s when the ball is put on play on the non-two-strike counts:

0-0 .333

0-1 .400

1-0 .500

1-1 .450

2-0 .000 (0-for-4)

2-1 .412

3-1 .429

IOW, if you get ahead of Lynn and make him throw a strike you can hammer him. If you get down in the count you’re pretty much dead meat. The Guards need to jump him early in the count - in the first three pitches.

McKenzie also faced the Sox on July 23 and allowed one run in 5.2 innings. He has a 1.82 ERA in July/August and a 2.81 home ERA for the season. He still has a problem with RISP (.322/.938) but allows few baserunners (.257 OBP).

Bieber faces off against Cueto (5-5, 2.78) on Saturday and Civale goes against Dylan Cease (12-5, 2.09) on Sunday. I won’t be surprised to see three close, low-scoring games that are decided late by defense, base running, the bullpens, and clutch hitting.

The G’s have 35 home runs at the Prog in 55 games. They should start improving on that, hopefully this weekend.

I like the way our starting pitchers have lined up. I see a good chance for T-Mac and Biebs to pull out wins over Lions and Cueto and an even better probability for a rainout postponement on Sunday, which otherwise would be a near certain loss to Cease. I think Cease may be a top 5 pitcher in MLB right now so a delay in facing him is fine by me.

 

[DCTribefan]

More pre-series stats.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I like the way our starting pitchers have lined up. I see a good chance for T-Mac and Biebs to pull out wins over Lions and Cueto and an even better probability for a rainout postponement on Sunday, which otherwise would be a near certain loss to Cease. I think Cease may be a top 5 pitcher in MLB right now so a delay in facing him is fine by me.

I can't see Civale beating Cease on Monday. In two starts against the Guardians this year Cease has yet to allow a run.

If Lynn pitches against us tonight the way he did a month ago (6 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs) we're going to need a stellar performance from Stix so it's 1-1 or something after six innings and then win late.

Bieber needs to beat Cueto tomorrow. Cueto is 36 and doesn't strike out many batters any more so we can foul off a lot of pitches and drive up his pitch count.

My thinking is that any game where we have a lead or are tied after six innings we have a better than 50-50 chance of winning. Our bullpen has been awesome since the break and our hitters have consistently come up big in late, clutch situations, expecially Gimenez and Naylor.

 

[JFT]

Nice night for the game!

 

[xmasbuck]

just heard tito talking about playing the rooks in the middle of a pennant race - he said - "it's a little bit of a big risk" - yogi would be proud

 

[Gson]

the biggest part of the pen being effective (after talent) is their limited use.. A well rested pen is an effective pen.. a talented and well rested pen is unbeatable..

and that's all she wrote..

 

[DCTribefan]

I can't see Civale beating Cease on Monday. In two starts against the Guardians this year Cease has yet to allow a run.

If Lynn pitches against us tonight the way he did a month ago (6 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs) we're going to need a stellar performance from Stix so it's 1-1 or something after six innings and then win late.

Bieber needs to beat Cueto tomorrow. Cueto is 36 and doesn't strike out many batters any more so we can foul off a lot of pitches and drive up his pitch count.

My thinking is that any game where we have a lead or are tied after six innings we have a better than 50-50 chance of winning. Our bullpen has been awesome since the break and our hitters have consistently come up big in late, clutch situations, expecially Gimenez and Naylor.

Agree. Cease is nearly unbeatable right now.

 

[xmasbuck]

quickly down 1-0 --- 1st and 3rd one out for the sox

another base knock 2-0 - 1st and 3rd one out for the sox

grandal with a dp to end the inning

 

[daddywags]

Well that's a rough start to the series.