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After dispatching the Padres in two straight games by a combined score of 10-1 the surging Guardians head up the coast with a four-game lead over the Twins and White Sox for a four-game weekend series with the Mariners.
Both teams are exactly 10 games over .500. The Mariners are 12.5 games behind the Astros and in third place in the wild card race. If they stay there and the G’s win the Central Division these teams would meet in the first round.
The M’s are 32-27 at home while the G’s are 34-31 on the road, so this looks like a very competitive series. The G’s are the hotter team with a 20-12 record since the break while the M’s are drifting along at 16-15. Since the break they are 1-6 against Houston and 5-1 against the Angels. They're not beating the good teams.
On paper the Mariners appear very similar to the Padres in that they are carried by their pitching. Their batting line at home is .216/.688 and they are averaging 3.9 runs per game. Since the All-Star break their batting line is an unimpressive .220/.671.
The Mariners rank 22nd in the majors in runs per game. That breaks down to 24th in batting average and 20th in slugging percentage. However, they are 4th in walks which puts them slightly above average in on-base percentage. They have hit 63 home runs in 59 home games.
These guys are so similar to the Padres, who rank 7th in walks. The Padres are 16th in scoring against 22nd for the Mariners, so if our pitchers can continue pitching the way they did in San Diego and going back to the All-Star break the Mariners will have a tough time putting runs on the board.
Julio Rodriguez is hitting .271/.803; Sam Haggerty .310/.846 (he is day-to-day with a shoulder problem), and Eugenio Suarez is hitting .229/.780 with four HR’s in his last five games. Mitch Haniger hit .333/1.154 against the Indians last year in 21 at-bats. Carlos Santana is a reserve who is hittting .179/.651 in what is probably his final season. The Mariners don’t seem to have that one big bat to be afraid of but they have four starters in the .770-.850 OPS neighborhood (if Haniger plays).
In terms of pitching, the Mariners rank 7th in team ERA; the Guardians are 8th and the Padres 9th. So this could be a pretty low scoring series, especially since the M’s have two lefties going. However, the Guards didn’t have much of a problem with Blake Snell yesterday so maybe they’re figuring out how to hit those portsiders (I'm really dating myself with that word).
T-Mobile park is the third toughest to score runs in (Petco is the toughest), so that’s another reason runs will be hard to come by. I’m not sure why because the park only ranks 21st in home runs, right behind Progressive Field. There’s essentially no difference.
Thank goodness the forecast does not call for rain. After this series we play three games against the Mariners in Cleveland next weekend.
Tristan McKenzie goes this afternoon (4:10 Eastern time) against 30-year-old LHP Marco Gonzalez (8-12, 4.08). Opponents are hitting .280/.807 on the season against Gonzalez and he has a 5.34 ERA over the last 30 days. He has only 75 K’s in 134 innings so it appears he is the classic soft-tossing lefty that has given the Guardians fits so often in the past.
The first three times through the batting order opponents are hitting .242, .253, and .356/.975 against him so the key is to get runners on base early and get to the third time through as soon as possible. It seems that after hitters get a couple of looks at what he throws they are able to square him up much better as the numbers take a dramatic jump.
Seattle’s bullpen ranks 7th in xFIP by Fangraphs, so they are very good. The Guardians’ bullpen is up to #1 after how dominant they’ve been lately.
McKenzie has been on fire with a 1.91 ERA in his nine starts in July and August. That’s Cy Young territory. Pitching in the third most pitcher friendly park in baseball against a team ranked 27th in home scoring Tristan should have another good outing. Last year in this park he gave up 5 runs in 4.1 innings in a 7-3 loss, including a 3-run homer to Dylan Moore, a reserve outfielder with a .204 career batting average.
Considering we’re facing a good team on the road I would be happy with a split of this series and a 4-2 road trip, but the way this team is playing at the moment there is a realistic chance for a series win, especially if the pitching continues to dominate. Bieber, Plesac, and Civale will follow McKenzie.
Last year the Indians were 1-3 in Seattle as Bieber, Civale, and McKenzie all got beat. This year's team is very different, however, and hopefully the outcome will be as well. In the first game of last year's series the Indians' starting lineup included Cesar Hernandez, Eddie Rosario, Franmil Reyes, Jordan Luplow, and Jake Bauers. How things have changed.
Both teams are exactly 10 games over .500. The Mariners are 12.5 games behind the Astros and in third place in the wild card race. If they stay there and the G’s win the Central Division these teams would meet in the first round.
The M’s are 32-27 at home while the G’s are 34-31 on the road, so this looks like a very competitive series. The G’s are the hotter team with a 20-12 record since the break while the M’s are drifting along at 16-15. Since the break they are 1-6 against Houston and 5-1 against the Angels. They're not beating the good teams.
On paper the Mariners appear very similar to the Padres in that they are carried by their pitching. Their batting line at home is .216/.688 and they are averaging 3.9 runs per game. Since the All-Star break their batting line is an unimpressive .220/.671.
The Mariners rank 22nd in the majors in runs per game. That breaks down to 24th in batting average and 20th in slugging percentage. However, they are 4th in walks which puts them slightly above average in on-base percentage. They have hit 63 home runs in 59 home games.
These guys are so similar to the Padres, who rank 7th in walks. The Padres are 16th in scoring against 22nd for the Mariners, so if our pitchers can continue pitching the way they did in San Diego and going back to the All-Star break the Mariners will have a tough time putting runs on the board.
Julio Rodriguez is hitting .271/.803; Sam Haggerty .310/.846 (he is day-to-day with a shoulder problem), and Eugenio Suarez is hitting .229/.780 with four HR’s in his last five games. Mitch Haniger hit .333/1.154 against the Indians last year in 21 at-bats. Carlos Santana is a reserve who is hittting .179/.651 in what is probably his final season. The Mariners don’t seem to have that one big bat to be afraid of but they have four starters in the .770-.850 OPS neighborhood (if Haniger plays).
In terms of pitching, the Mariners rank 7th in team ERA; the Guardians are 8th and the Padres 9th. So this could be a pretty low scoring series, especially since the M’s have two lefties going. However, the Guards didn’t have much of a problem with Blake Snell yesterday so maybe they’re figuring out how to hit those portsiders (I'm really dating myself with that word).
T-Mobile park is the third toughest to score runs in (Petco is the toughest), so that’s another reason runs will be hard to come by. I’m not sure why because the park only ranks 21st in home runs, right behind Progressive Field. There’s essentially no difference.
Thank goodness the forecast does not call for rain. After this series we play three games against the Mariners in Cleveland next weekend.
Tristan McKenzie goes this afternoon (4:10 Eastern time) against 30-year-old LHP Marco Gonzalez (8-12, 4.08). Opponents are hitting .280/.807 on the season against Gonzalez and he has a 5.34 ERA over the last 30 days. He has only 75 K’s in 134 innings so it appears he is the classic soft-tossing lefty that has given the Guardians fits so often in the past.
The first three times through the batting order opponents are hitting .242, .253, and .356/.975 against him so the key is to get runners on base early and get to the third time through as soon as possible. It seems that after hitters get a couple of looks at what he throws they are able to square him up much better as the numbers take a dramatic jump.
Seattle’s bullpen ranks 7th in xFIP by Fangraphs, so they are very good. The Guardians’ bullpen is up to #1 after how dominant they’ve been lately.
McKenzie has been on fire with a 1.91 ERA in his nine starts in July and August. That’s Cy Young territory. Pitching in the third most pitcher friendly park in baseball against a team ranked 27th in home scoring Tristan should have another good outing. Last year in this park he gave up 5 runs in 4.1 innings in a 7-3 loss, including a 3-run homer to Dylan Moore, a reserve outfielder with a .204 career batting average.
Considering we’re facing a good team on the road I would be happy with a split of this series and a 4-2 road trip, but the way this team is playing at the moment there is a realistic chance for a series win, especially if the pitching continues to dominate. Bieber, Plesac, and Civale will follow McKenzie.
Last year the Indians were 1-3 in Seattle as Bieber, Civale, and McKenzie all got beat. This year's team is very different, however, and hopefully the outcome will be as well. In the first game of last year's series the Indians' starting lineup included Cesar Hernandez, Eddie Rosario, Franmil Reyes, Jordan Luplow, and Jake Bauers. How things have changed.
