2023-2024 Playoffs: March Toward _______?

[Dr No]

There are some really good young teams making a lot of noise in the playoffs. From The Athletic:


The Minnesota Timberwolves are enjoying their best postseason start of all time (6-0). They swept the Suns and surprised everybody by winning Games 1 and 2 of their second-round series with the defending champion Nuggets. It’s been an incredible run, so we’re right to freak out over what Anthony Edwards and company are doing. With that said, holy crap, look at what the Thunder have done so far. They kicked off their semifinals matchup by housing Dallas 117-95.

Nobody should minimize OKC’s dominance during its 5-0 start this postseason. Actually, maybe we should be making a bigger deal of the Thunder’s start despite being so young. Sure, we can compare OKC’s opponents to Minnesota’s. If we did, we could admit the Suns (swept in first round by Minnesota) have more starpower and gravitas than a Pelicans team without Zion Williamson (swept by OKC). The Nuggets are the defending champs and superior to the Mavericks, but the Thunder are blowing opponents out regardless.

Three of their five wins so far this postseason are blowout victories (by 20 or more points). In five games, the Thunder have a plus-85 point differential. That figure is the second-best over any five-game span in team playoff history. It’s also right in line with the Wolves’ plus-93 mark this postseason (trailing only the Celtics at plus-103).

OKC dominated Dallas in the fourth quarter to put Game 1 to bed, but this thing was tucked in most of the night. The Thunder had complete control, which is only magnified more by their poise with such an inexperienced core.

I would throw in the Magic, which could be even younger than the Thunder. Meanwhile, the older teams are breaking down. The Bucks lost Giannis and the Heat lost Jimmy Butler to injuries and were quickly eliminated. The Lakers, led by 39-year-old LeBron James, lost 4-1 to the Nuggets. The Suns, led by 35-year-old Kevin Durant, lost 4-0 to Minnesota. I think we're seeing a changing of the guard here.

No doubt a changing of the guard. We are also seeing the type of team construction necessary. To me, the 4 most impressive teams so far are Wolves, Thunder, Celtics & Knicks. They all have the requisite star who can carry a team in scoring, the NBA has always been that way, but they also have a lot of shooting around them. There is rarely a time when at least 4 guys on the court aren’t threats. On defense, they all have excellent perimeter defenders and length. Pairing a legitimate star with a team of agility, length & guys who can space while defending in space is how it’s done. This is also how Denver won last year.

 

[Dr. Claw]

@Smooth, FearTheFro is one of my favorite pods (really Bob is a guy who nails just how ... "extra" I can be about the Cavs, any everything else. Elite references, and the songs he does are HILARIOUS). Really great to hear you on there talking ball.

 

[Thelastcavsfan]

We could use a guy like klay Thompson. If money didn’t matter in a perfect world

 

[shoes22]

We could use a guy like klay Thompson. If money didn’t matter in a perfect world

Oh hell no. Klay is done, and we don't need yet another albatross contract on the roster.

 

[Sebastian]

There are some really good young teams making a lot of noise in the playoffs. From The Athletic:


The Minnesota Timberwolves are enjoying their best postseason start of all time (6-0). They swept the Suns and surprised everybody by winning Games 1 and 2 of their second-round series with the defending champion Nuggets. It’s been an incredible run, so we’re right to freak out over what Anthony Edwards and company are doing. With that said, holy crap, look at what the Thunder have done so far. They kicked off their semifinals matchup by housing Dallas 117-95.

Nobody should minimize OKC’s dominance during its 5-0 start this postseason. Actually, maybe we should be making a bigger deal of the Thunder’s start despite being so young. Sure, we can compare OKC’s opponents to Minnesota’s. If we did, we could admit the Suns (swept in first round by Minnesota) have more starpower and gravitas than a Pelicans team without Zion Williamson (swept by OKC). The Nuggets are the defending champs and superior to the Mavericks, but the Thunder are blowing opponents out regardless.

Three of their five wins so far this postseason are blowout victories (by 20 or more points). In five games, the Thunder have a plus-85 point differential. That figure is the second-best over any five-game span in team playoff history. It’s also right in line with the Wolves’ plus-93 mark this postseason (trailing only the Celtics at plus-103).

OKC dominated Dallas in the fourth quarter to put Game 1 to bed, but this thing was tucked in most of the night. The Thunder had complete control, which is only magnified more by their poise with such an inexperienced core.

I would throw in the Magic, which could be even younger than the Thunder. Meanwhile, the older teams are breaking down. The Bucks lost Giannis and the Heat lost Jimmy Butler to injuries and were quickly eliminated. The Lakers, led by 39-year-old LeBron James, lost 4-1 to the Nuggets. The Suns, led by 35-year-old Kevin Durant, lost 4-0 to Minnesota. I think we're seeing a changing of the guard here.

OKC is demonstrating that the fashion of saying total tanking and complete rebuilds don't work anymore because of Lotto changes is only partially true.

As the odds in the Lotto get longer, a team adapts by stockpiling as many picks as possible to increase their own odds at the true franchise cornerstones.

Makes one wonder if the Cavs should have taken a different approach, but then again drafting better always helps.

 

[Dr No]

OKC is demonstrating that the fashion of saying total tanking and complete rebuilds doesn't work anymore because of Lotto changes is only partially true.

As the odds in the Lotto get longer, a team adapts by stockpiling as many picks as possible to increase their own odds at the true franchise cornerstones.

Makes one wonder if the Cavs should have taken a different approach, but then again drafting better always helps.

Tanking works because top 3 draft picks tend to become cornerstone players. Just look at the top teams this year: T-Wolves have 2 #1 overall picks anchoring their team. Boston has 2 #3 picks. OKC got Chet at #2. Kyrie was #1 overall & Luka #3. The counter is that half of the final 8 aren’t built around top lottery picks - but of those Indy & Cleveland aren’t true contenders (Even with our #3 pick). The Knicks & Nuggets are different - and a little lucky with Jokic and Brunson. But even going back through NBA champions all time, you’ll find most of them anchored by a top 3 pick. It’s not a guarantee, and teams do beat the odds, but your odds increase with top 3 picks. And the best way to increase your odds of landing a top 3 pick is to lose big.

 

[bushwick_bill]

 

[guitarguy]

While we obviously shot well last night and they didn't (not likely to last), I am encouraged that they have no answer for us going in the paint. We won't win every game that way, especially if they get super hot from 3 land like they do, but perhaps with any luck, it will keep us in every game.

It's funny in a way, the 90s style of play gets a lot of shit, but when it comes to playoffs, it is rather underrated. If the other team is built to stop 2020 style basketball, playing more in "2" land, can really be beneficial.

We should continue to try to with points in the paint by this margin, and 3s be what they are, we might actually pull it off.

 

[zDawg45]

Go Cavs!!!

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Law Murray in The Athletic has a column on how NBA teams are trying to better defend 3-point shots.

This season, the league set a record for 3s made per game (12.8) and shot 36.6 percent from deep, the fourth-highest mark in league history...

“Each game is going to dictate what your defense allows you to do or what you want to take away,” [LeBron] James said. “NBA players, you can’t take away everything. Guys are going to score, guys are going to shoot 3s, guys are going to put up numbers. You can’t take away everything. It’s what you’re willing to give up, not what you want to take away.”

Arguably, NBA defense has never been harder. This season, the NBA saw the fewest fouls ever (18.7 per game), second-fewest free-throw attempts of all time (21.7 per game) and the ninth-lowest offensive rebound average (10.6 per game).

Fewest fouls per game? Is that due to more 3-point shots or are the refs just "letting them play"?

The NBA’s best defense this regular season belonged to Minnesota. The Timberwolves took advantage of center Rudy Gobert’s elite rim protection to make things challenging on perimeter offenses, using the length and athleticism of wing defenders Jaden McDaniels and All-Star Anthony Edwards. While that left the Timberwolves vulnerable in the midrange, they happily accepted that trade-off.

The Cavs have elite rim protection but they lack some length and athleticism on the wing. Garland and Mitchell are short while Niang is slow. Even Strus and Okoro are shorter than optimal for contesting 3's. You want guys who are 6'7" or taller contesting 3's.

“It’s a 3-point shooting league,” [Thunder coach Mark] Daigneault said. “But free-throw trips are still more efficient than 3s. Layups are still more efficient than 3s, transitions are still more efficient than 3s. And not all 3s are created equally. You know, the ones that are paint-created and the ones that come inside out tend to be more catch and shoot, more open and go in more.”

I noticed that whenever the Cavs give up an offensive rebound it is highly likely to result in a made 3. Whoever grabs the offensive rebound kicks it out and there is always an open shooter ready to take the uncontested shot after catching the ball already squared up to the basket.

We do give up a lot of 3s,” Daigneault said. “We have given up a lot of 3s over the last couple of years. But we try to dictate what the 3s are that we’re giving up.”

“It’s not even going to come down to getting stops,” [Paul] George said. “It’s coming down to if the guy makes it or not, because it’s impossible to get stops. … To be honest, I don’t know how you fix it.”

The Cavs finished 17th this year in opponents' three-point percentage. Next year if they give most of Niang's minutes to Dean Wade that should improve. But they still lack length on the perimeter.

 

[-Akronite-]

Quick shoutout to some 23-24 Cavs highlights!

• Merrill emerging as a sniper
• The resurgence of Jarrett Allen
• All of that 17-1 run
• Drippy Dean going insane to beat Boston
• That Garland 3 & Mitchell hug
• Mitchell putting up 50 in a playoff game on one leg (despite the loss)
• Winning a big game 7 for our first series clinch with this squad
• And, of course, Max Strus hitting everything to beat the Mavs, including one of the great game winners in NBA history

A lot of frustration, maybe some lost potential, but it was anything but boring. Still don't feel very close but we keep getting a little further. Very thankful to not be a Washington fan.

 

[guitarguy]

Maybe just reading into it, but crazy how dysfunctional the team looks all of the sudden after getting to 2nd round and losing to the "best" team in the league.

 

[bleedwineandgold03]

I don’t wanna give up on dg but if we can get Ingram or miles bridges we should definitely do it

 

[GonzoRatso88]

Windy on WKNR (mods please place this where you want):

-The piece from the Athletic was something you see more often. You dump a lot of news at once when the season ends. This makes it sound worse than it is but you are dealing with the challenges of the day to day. The questions and issues that were on the horizon are now here.

-How many times did Windy say 3-1-1 is the way they should play? When you play 2 centers and 2 point guards tells you that you have to make a decision because Mitchell and Garland are point guards. Mobley is a center in 2024. They now have to deal with the fact that they are better when they are 3-1-1 and not 2-1-2. The Cavs have a structural issue with their roster. (Windy is insinuating that the same core 4 will not be back)

-The report that Garland would want out if Mithcell stays is true. Garland and Mitchell are not at each others throats but they are not a fit

-The challenge with JB is that he has done a good job where he built a defensive first system and lifted them from a 12th place team to a 4th place team. The players he had were defensive based and was audacious (play 2 7 footers in 2022). When it comes to the big job of overcoming mismatched players on the roster and he has not been able to maximize the roster

-The Cavs players were tired and emotionally drained after the loss last night. This isn't something you say after you make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs.

-Darius Garland has underachieved playing next to Donovan Mitchell and you look for the coach to help that area but he did not see a plan from JB.

-Dan is significantly involved in what will happen this offseason. He went through terrible tragedies recently and he is in a better place physically now. He is involved now and has his son involved in the team as well.

-There will be a lot of stuff coming. They can't talk to Donovan Mitchell about a contract extension until after the NBA Finals (they can informally talk to him) and the Cavs have optimism that he will extend. This takes precedence over everything else that is coming this offseason. Until they get an answer on that, you won't know what is going on with Allen, Garland and others on the team.

-The Cavs feel good about Mithcell but there are teams that are NOT convinced. Circle your calendars for the 3rd week in June, that is when this will get real. Donovan is very skilled in how he talks about this you will not a find a quote where he said I am leaving or staying. The sourcing on this is ALL over the place. He has people telling him he is staying and the contract is drawn up. He has others staying teams have trade offers ready. Windy believes both sides which means Mitchell has played this very skillfully and played it down the middle. He has not ruffled feathers and in Utah he was not hated because he quietly made it known he wanted to leave

 

[eChameleon]

Should we fire up an offseason thread?