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2023-24 Playoff Series #1 | Game 2 | Magic @ Cavs | April 22, 2024

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Okay, we're 2-0. Let's crank the prediction numbers for the rest of the series. I'm not changing any game prediction, merely filling in our victories.

Our next game:
If 2-0, chance of victory 51% Cavs 115-110

Game 4:
Game 4: If 2-1, chance of victory 50% Cavs 113-106
If 3-0, chance of victory 54% Cavs 119-106
Chance of sweeping=27.54%

Chance of going to 5 games:
47.96%​

Game 5:
If 2-2, chance of victory 52%, Cavs 113-107
Game 5, If 3-1, chance of victory 56%, Cavs 120-111
Chance of going to 6 games: 21.1%

Game 6, If 3-2 chance of victory 49%, Cavs 119-116
If 2-3 chance of victory 43%, Cavs 112-109
Chance of winning in 6: 10.34%

Game 7:
Game 7, 53% chance of victory 119-114
Chance of winning in 7:
5.82%​

Overall chance of Cavs winning the series:
70.55%​

I like our chances!
 
Amazing how similar the final scores of both games turned out to be. If we could just get Niang to make a couple of uncontested 3's each game it would be a lot easier. Really, Georges, 0-for-8?

The Cavs went up 22 in the 3rd and as usual when they get a big lead they collapsed and gave up a 13-0 run. Mitchell came back in and quickly made two layups to restore order. The Cavs went 4.5 minutes in the 3rd without scoring a point. That seems to happen every game, sometimes twice.

The Cavs scored 58 in the first half and 38 in the second. Orlando was playing with incredible intensity and the Cavs were struggling to score. Fortunately the defense was great, the Magic still can't hit 3's, and they only scored 42 in the second half.

After four halves the Magic has yet to score more than 44 in a half.

The Cavs' formula is defense, rebounding (15 offensive boards, 9 by Allen!), and Donovan Mitchell.

Garland stepped up big with five points early in the 4th quarter with Mitchell and Allen on the bench to keep the Cavs even. He finished 4-for-7 from deep. We need that from him.

The shooting continues to suck; they missed 10 free throws and 27 three-pointers. Mitchell was 2-for-10 on 3's, Niang and Strus combined to go 1-for-9. They shot too many contested 3's early in the clock.

The Cavs cut their turnovers from 17 to 15, slightly better but they need to reduce them even more. Niang in the postgame interview called turnovers the Cavs' "biggest Achilles heel" and said they need to be better at taking care of the ball.

As long as they can keep Orlando under 90 points they should win every time. If the 3-point shooting comes around they'll be in great shape. But Orlando will shoot better at home.

Now they just need to win one of two in Florida and come home up 3-1.
 
I can live with George missing shots in a virtually blow out game. He has shown from the regular season that he also has a stretch where he shoots almost 60 percent from three. Need that moving forward.

Garland, though, damn. Those TOs are really his trademark for all the wrong reasons.

His approach needs to change. He is not an explosive and strong guard to take guys off the dribble. He should hunt for those threes and use that gravity to attack.

That good albeit limited stretch in that game should be his blueprint moving forward. When he starts to aimlessly dribble and penetrate is when all the TOs/bad shots happen.
 

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Video

Episode 3-14: "Time for Playoff Vengeance on Mickey"

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Spotify

Episode 3:14: " Time for Playoff Vengeance on Mickey."
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