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Still on a roll the Cavs return home for the second and final game against the 29-19 Sacramento Kings, who will be playing the last game of a long road trip. The Kings are 15-11 away from Sacramento and will be playing their seventh game in 12 days, all on the road. Hopefully the Kings will be exhausted and their minds will be on getting home.
The Kings have won 6 of their last 7 and are injury free and playing well. Their point differential is just +0.2 in non-garbage time according to cleaningtheglass.com. This would normally equate to a 24-24 record, but the Kings have 29 wins, which leads the NBA in wins over expectation.
I assumed this means they’re good at winning the close games, however, they are just 6-5 in games decided by five points or less. The explanation seems to be that they get blown out from time to time; they’ve lost games by 36, 33, 33, 25, 25, and 20 points. Of their 19 losses, 11 have been by double figures. Some nights they just don’t show up and compete.
Or it could be that because they are a team that wins by outscoring their opponents and are highly dependent on 3-point shooting, they get blown out on nights when their 3’s aren’t falling. They usually can’t win with defense when the offense isn’t there.
Injuries are not a factor; all five starters have started at least 41 of their 48 games. Sabonis and Barnes have started every game. They’ve been really fortunate with injuries.
The Kings are very good offensively, ranking 8th in scoring. They’re mainly a jump shooting team as 44% of their shots are 3’s - the 4th highest percentage in the Association. They rank 15th in points in the paint. They’re a little above average at 3-point percentage and rank 4th in 2-point percentage, so they should probably shoot less 3’s.
The Kings like to push the pace, ranking 7th in field goal attempts per game. They get the ball up quickly and look for open 3’s in transition. They are unselfish, ranking 5th in assists per possession. In the first meeting in Sacramento they laid 132 points on the Cavs, burying them under a hail of 3’s. In the end they were 20-for-42 from deep. They share the ball and have six players who average in double figures.
Defensively they’re on the low end of average, ranking 20th in opponents’ points per game and 17th in defensive efficiency. Their biggest weakness is defending the perimeter as they rank 29th in opponents’ 3-point percentage (a whopping 39.0%). They’re much better defending the 2-point shot (13th). The Cavs are at home and had a day off so they should let the 3’s fly.
In the first game between these teams the Cavs scored 120 points and hit 46% of their 3’s. Offensive wasn’t the problem. The Kings are third worst in blocked shot percentage, so taking it to the hole doesn’t seem like a bad idea, either.
What the Kings are really good at is defensive rebounding. They lead the NBA at 78%. Most of the time you only get one shot. However, in the first game Mobley had 7 offensive boards and Allen 4, so they did a nice job.
Lightening quick PG De’Aaron Fox leads the Kings in scoring with 27.1 ppg on 47% overall and 38% from deep. The Kings are a +9.0 when he is on the floor - best on the team. I don’t know if Garland can match up with him so soon after coming back from injury. I expect Mitchell, LeVert, or possibly Okoro to get that tough assignment. Fox is a shooter, ranking in the bottom 5% among point guards in assist to usage ratio and he also commits more turnovers than average.
C Domantas Sabonis has a line of 20/13/8. He is one of the most skilled and versatile big men in the game and has mastered all the low post moves. Young centers should watch this guy operate in the post. He destroyed the Cavs in the first game, scoring 23 points on just 10 shots with 9 rebounds and 10 assists. After that game I wrote:
Sabonis schooled Allen and Mobley again and again. Next to him they both look slow, weak, and unskilled.
Sabonis is an outstanding passer, ranking in the 98th percentile among bigs in assist to usage ratio. You have to double him and then he kicks it out for an open 3 or hits a cutter for a layup.
PF Keegan Murray averages just under 16 ppg and SF Harrison Barnes 12.1 on 48% overall and 40% on 3’s. SG Kevin Huerter averages 11 points.
The Cavs lost that game 132-120. It’s the most points the Cavs have allowed this year, including overtime games. After the game I wrote:
Awful defensive performance - very little contesting of 3's. The Kings were 20-for-42. It was ridiculous. The Cavs failed to get on their man in transition consistently. Any time they score 120 they should win…The Cavs perimeter defense was embarrassing…The game didn't seem as close as the final score suggests. Fox outplayed Garland and Mitchell, Sabonis outplayed Allen and Mobley, and Huerter was on fire, hitting 6-of-9 on 3's. The Cavs shot well, but they had no answer for the Kings' offense.
Recently the Cavs have been playing much better defense than they were when they lost to the Kings in the 10th game of the season. I’m sure JBB will show them the film of that game and point out the mistakes, especially leaving wide open 3-point shooters in transition. IMO, defending the transition 3’s and forcing the Kings into a half-court offense will be the key. We didn’t have Okoro for the last game, so that may have been a factor.
The wild card will be the fatigue factor with the Kings playing their 7th road game in 12 days. They’re 5-1 on this road trip so far, but they haven’t been playing the best teams. In fact, this will be their third game in four nights. Teams that rely heavily on 3-point shooting don’t generally do well with tired legs and I hope that's the case tonight.
I want to see Mobley knock down some more 3’s and jumpers from the elbows. Also, the Kings only average 4.0 blocks per game so the Cavs should attack the rim and get the layup or at least force Sabonis to challenge the shot (he won’t block it), leaving Mobley or Allen to clean up any misses.
With the Kings being the second worst 3-point defenders in the league I can see Merrill and Niang having good games offensively, assuming Niang finds his shot after going 0-for-8 on 3’s two nights ago. With very little rim protection the Kings tend to pack the paint on defense, leaving open shooters on the perimeter.
Last week the Cavs held the Clippers to 108 points; 10 points under their season average of 118. The Kings are also averaging 118 points and are at the end of a long road trip. I’d like to see the Cavs hold them to 108 as well. If they do it should be another W as the Clippers are better defensively than the Kings.
The Kings have won 6 of their last 7 and are injury free and playing well. Their point differential is just +0.2 in non-garbage time according to cleaningtheglass.com. This would normally equate to a 24-24 record, but the Kings have 29 wins, which leads the NBA in wins over expectation.
I assumed this means they’re good at winning the close games, however, they are just 6-5 in games decided by five points or less. The explanation seems to be that they get blown out from time to time; they’ve lost games by 36, 33, 33, 25, 25, and 20 points. Of their 19 losses, 11 have been by double figures. Some nights they just don’t show up and compete.
Or it could be that because they are a team that wins by outscoring their opponents and are highly dependent on 3-point shooting, they get blown out on nights when their 3’s aren’t falling. They usually can’t win with defense when the offense isn’t there.
Injuries are not a factor; all five starters have started at least 41 of their 48 games. Sabonis and Barnes have started every game. They’ve been really fortunate with injuries.
The Kings are very good offensively, ranking 8th in scoring. They’re mainly a jump shooting team as 44% of their shots are 3’s - the 4th highest percentage in the Association. They rank 15th in points in the paint. They’re a little above average at 3-point percentage and rank 4th in 2-point percentage, so they should probably shoot less 3’s.
The Kings like to push the pace, ranking 7th in field goal attempts per game. They get the ball up quickly and look for open 3’s in transition. They are unselfish, ranking 5th in assists per possession. In the first meeting in Sacramento they laid 132 points on the Cavs, burying them under a hail of 3’s. In the end they were 20-for-42 from deep. They share the ball and have six players who average in double figures.
Defensively they’re on the low end of average, ranking 20th in opponents’ points per game and 17th in defensive efficiency. Their biggest weakness is defending the perimeter as they rank 29th in opponents’ 3-point percentage (a whopping 39.0%). They’re much better defending the 2-point shot (13th). The Cavs are at home and had a day off so they should let the 3’s fly.
In the first game between these teams the Cavs scored 120 points and hit 46% of their 3’s. Offensive wasn’t the problem. The Kings are third worst in blocked shot percentage, so taking it to the hole doesn’t seem like a bad idea, either.
What the Kings are really good at is defensive rebounding. They lead the NBA at 78%. Most of the time you only get one shot. However, in the first game Mobley had 7 offensive boards and Allen 4, so they did a nice job.
Lightening quick PG De’Aaron Fox leads the Kings in scoring with 27.1 ppg on 47% overall and 38% from deep. The Kings are a +9.0 when he is on the floor - best on the team. I don’t know if Garland can match up with him so soon after coming back from injury. I expect Mitchell, LeVert, or possibly Okoro to get that tough assignment. Fox is a shooter, ranking in the bottom 5% among point guards in assist to usage ratio and he also commits more turnovers than average.
C Domantas Sabonis has a line of 20/13/8. He is one of the most skilled and versatile big men in the game and has mastered all the low post moves. Young centers should watch this guy operate in the post. He destroyed the Cavs in the first game, scoring 23 points on just 10 shots with 9 rebounds and 10 assists. After that game I wrote:
Sabonis schooled Allen and Mobley again and again. Next to him they both look slow, weak, and unskilled.
Sabonis is an outstanding passer, ranking in the 98th percentile among bigs in assist to usage ratio. You have to double him and then he kicks it out for an open 3 or hits a cutter for a layup.
PF Keegan Murray averages just under 16 ppg and SF Harrison Barnes 12.1 on 48% overall and 40% on 3’s. SG Kevin Huerter averages 11 points.
The Cavs lost that game 132-120. It’s the most points the Cavs have allowed this year, including overtime games. After the game I wrote:
Awful defensive performance - very little contesting of 3's. The Kings were 20-for-42. It was ridiculous. The Cavs failed to get on their man in transition consistently. Any time they score 120 they should win…The Cavs perimeter defense was embarrassing…The game didn't seem as close as the final score suggests. Fox outplayed Garland and Mitchell, Sabonis outplayed Allen and Mobley, and Huerter was on fire, hitting 6-of-9 on 3's. The Cavs shot well, but they had no answer for the Kings' offense.
Recently the Cavs have been playing much better defense than they were when they lost to the Kings in the 10th game of the season. I’m sure JBB will show them the film of that game and point out the mistakes, especially leaving wide open 3-point shooters in transition. IMO, defending the transition 3’s and forcing the Kings into a half-court offense will be the key. We didn’t have Okoro for the last game, so that may have been a factor.
The wild card will be the fatigue factor with the Kings playing their 7th road game in 12 days. They’re 5-1 on this road trip so far, but they haven’t been playing the best teams. In fact, this will be their third game in four nights. Teams that rely heavily on 3-point shooting don’t generally do well with tired legs and I hope that's the case tonight.
I want to see Mobley knock down some more 3’s and jumpers from the elbows. Also, the Kings only average 4.0 blocks per game so the Cavs should attack the rim and get the layup or at least force Sabonis to challenge the shot (he won’t block it), leaving Mobley or Allen to clean up any misses.
With the Kings being the second worst 3-point defenders in the league I can see Merrill and Niang having good games offensively, assuming Niang finds his shot after going 0-for-8 on 3’s two nights ago. With very little rim protection the Kings tend to pack the paint on defense, leaving open shooters on the perimeter.
Last week the Cavs held the Clippers to 108 points; 10 points under their season average of 118. The Kings are also averaging 118 points and are at the end of a long road trip. I’d like to see the Cavs hold them to 108 as well. If they do it should be another W as the Clippers are better defensively than the Kings.
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