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2023-24 Season | Game #54 | Magic @ Cavs | Feb. 22, 2024 | 7:00 p.m.

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Wham with the Right Hand

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With 29 games to go and rested up the Cavaliers begin their stretch run with a pair of back-to-back games. The first game is at home against the Orlando Magic, who are 30-25 overall and 12-17 on the road. Tomorrow they're in Philly.

The Magic started the season like gangbusters, racing out to a 14-5 record and looking like a contender. But since that point they are 16-20 and the bloom is off the rose.

The Magic are challenged offensively as they rank 26th in scoring at 111.7 points per game. Their biggest problem is lack of 3-point shooting; they are 29th in 3-point accuracy and last in the NBA at just under 12 made 3's per game.

They also play at a slow pace (25th) and commit a lot of turnovers (24th). They rank 25th in assists per play, indicating they like to play iso ball. But they excel in a couple of areas; they get fouled a lot, ranking 2nd in free throw attempts per possession, and they are 7th in offensive rebound percentage.

The Magic average 19 made free throws per game. Understanding that they don’t shoot 3’s well, their game is attacking the rim, drawing fouls, and getting putbacks. They rank 4th in second chance points, so the key to defending the Magic is to avoid committing a lot of fouls and getting that first rebound after a missed shot.

The Cavs should pull their defense in to defend the paint and be in good position for defensive rebounds. If the Magic want to shoot 3’s, let them do it; only one team makes a lower percentage.

Defense is the Magic’s strong point as they rank 7th in scoring defense and 4th in defensive efficiency behind Minnesota, Cleveland, and Boston. With two of the league’s top four defensive teams on the floor we could see a low scoring game, although the Cavs have scored 121 and 126 against them this year.

In terms of opponents’ effective field goal percentage they rank 14th, so they are just average at forcing missed shots. The reason they rank so high in scoring defense is because they are the best in the league at forcing turnovers; 15 per game on average. They are 3rd in steals per play. They also excel on the defensive glass, ranking 5th in rebound percentage. You have to avoid the turnover and make your first shot.

In the game four weeks ago the Cavs committed just 9 turnovers and limited the Magic to 8 offensive rebounds and won by 27 points. That’s how to beat this team - minimize your turnovers and don’t let them get second chances to score.

The Cavs are 2-1 against the Magic this year. Their loss was in early December with Mobley and LeVert out, when the Cavs were barely over .500. They last played on Jan. 22 in Orlando with the Cavs winning easily by a 126-99 score without Mobley, Garland, and LeVert.

Since Dec. 15 the Cavs are 23-5 while the Magic are 14-18. The Cavs are scorching hot while the Magic have been treading water for a couple of months.

PF Paolo Banchero leads the Magic in scoring with a line of 23/7/5. SF Franz Wagner is right behind at 21/6/4. C Wendell Carter Jr averages 11.4 points and 6.5 rebounds on 54% from the field and 40% on 3’s. Banchero, Wagner, and Carter are all 6’10”, giving the Magic a front line similar to the Allen/Mobley/Markkanen group the Cavs had before the Mitchell trade. No wonder the Magic rank so high in both offensive and defensive rebounding.

PG Markelle Fultz averages 8.4 ppg but he is out. Backup PG Cole Anthony averages 12 points and 4 assists and SG Jalen Suggs averages 12.3 ppg. Not much scoring from the backcourt; the strength of their team is definitely on the front line which is why I enjoy watching these teams play - Mobley/Allen/Wade against Banchero/Wagner/Carter is an interesting battle of young, talented bigs.

Banchero and Wagner average 23 and 21 ppg but after those two nobody averages more than 12 which is why they’re 26th in scoring. I’m particularly looking forward to the Mobley/Banchero matchup and I expect Allen will also be on him at times. We should see Mobley or Allen on Franz Wagner as well.

Since the Magic’s offense is highly dependent on attacking the rim, getting to the free throw line, and getting offensive putbacks I think the Cavs should be a good matchup with Allen and Mobley in the paint. I don’t know if the Magic can punish the Cavs for defending the rim by hitting enough 3’s.

In two previous games this year Garland has averaged 31 points against the Magic. Their guards are big; Suggs and Gary Harris are both 6’4” or taller and weigh over 200 pounds. They have a hard time staying in front of Darius and have to foul; he’s shot 17 free throws in two games, making 16.

The Magic in three games are averaging just 104.7 points against the Cavs, well below their season average of 111.7.

In the one game against Orlando since the Cavs went to their new style of play in mid-December they beat the Magic in Orlando by 27 and that was without Mobley, Garland and LeVert. This time the game is in Cleveland and the Cavs will have all three. It looks good for the Cavs on paper - they match up well against this team, they’re at home, and they blew them out last time without three key players. But will the Cavs be focused and sharp coming off an 8-day vacay? They had just one practice over the break - yesterday. But I suppose the same is true for Orlando.

JBB says the minutes restrictions for Garland and Mobley have been lifted and he plans to go with a 10-man rotation. The Cavs play in Philadelphia tomorrow so another 126-99 game would certainly help.
 
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Philly plays tonight as well (Knicks) so I am not super concerned about this particular back-to-back.
 
Everyone is healthy, nobody has minute restrictions, and JBB is going 10 deep. Hopefully we will see this team stay healthy and peak against the better competition.

Put Mitchell in bubble wrap and cryofreeze him between games.
 
Philly plays tonight as well (Knicks) so I am not super concerned about this particular back-to-back.
Yeah, but the Sixers don't have to travel tonight while the Cavs do. Fortunately, it's not a long flight from Cleveland to Philly and the Cavs are well-rested from the break so it's definitely not the worst back-to-back I've seen. Not like having to play in Orlando and then in Boston the next night like we did in early December.

But I am hoping for a knock-down, drag-out game that goes down to the final seconds.
 
Everyone is healthy, nobody has minute restrictions, and JBB is going 10 deep. Hopefully we will see this team stay healthy and peak against the better competition.

Put Mitchell in bubble wrap and cryofreeze him between games.
Mitchell isn’t healthy though; as I posted above, he is questionable for tonight’s game with an illness
 
In their 27-point win last month the Cavs were 20-for-38 from deep and as I said earlier minimized both their turnovers and second chance points by the Magic. I'm looking for the same formula tonight; protect the ball, dominate the defensive glass, and hit 3's against a very tall team that ranks 12th in opponents' points in the paint.
 
Mitchell isn’t healthy though; as I posted above, he is questionable for tonight’s game with an illness
Fedor says he is "officially listed as questionable" but Bickerstaff said he would be "back with the team" on Thursday. That sounds like he'll play. But, yeah, he's officially listed as a game time decision.
 
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Okay, I think with or without Mitchell, we'll win this game. 80% likelihood, IMO.

I have a hunch our 3-point shooters shoot well and we'll end up with 15-20 3s made. Mobley should score about 20 in 30 minutes of play.

125-108, Cavs.
 
Per the official 10:30 am injury report, Banchero has been added now:

 
So excited to see our boys back in action! I hope they come with a fire tonight. We can control our own destiny and hold this 2 seed. Knowing this could be a first round matchup, I want to see us win big again.

Hope Garland can get more into his shooting rhythm.
 
Per the official 10:30 am injury report, Banchero has been added now:

Sounds like something was being passed around at the All Star festivities.

If there is one thing Don could improve it is his immune system. Dude gets sick more than my 3 year old.
 

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