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After a one-in-a-million win coming from 22 points down with 9 minutes to go against the NBA’s best team and with three starters injured the Cavaliers take a late night flight to Atlanta for a back-to-back against the Hawks, who are coming off a 116-100 win against the depleted Knicks in New York last night. The Knicks were without Brunson, Anunoby, Randle, and Robinson (but that didn't stop them from beating the Cavs on Sunday).
The Hawks are 27-34 overall and 15-16 at home. They are 0-3 against the Cavs this year, losing in November, December, and January by 23, 8, and 21 points.
Trae Young, averaging 26.4 points and 10.8 assists per game, is out with a finger injury that required surgery. The Hawks averaged 121.3 points with Young, but in the five games since he’s been out their average is 109.6, which would rank 27th in scoring for the season. They've gone from the 4th highest scoring team to the 27th without their All-Star point guard who either scored or assisted on about 50 points per game.
However, the Hawks are 29th in scoring defense, allowing 123.9 points per game with Young on the floor. But in the five games since Young was injured they are allowing 105.4 points. I knew he was a defensive liability but they’ve been over 18 points better defensively with him out. However, four of those five games were against teams ranked 20th to 26th in scoring, so this is probably a small sample deviation.
The Hawks are also missing backup center Onyeka Okongwu, so the only available center on their roster is Clint Capela. Both Capela and Okongwu average 25 minutes per game so they are basically co-starters (or "coasters"). Backup PF Bruno Fernando (6’9”, 240) will probably divide the center minutes with Capela. Bruno has only played in 24 games, averaging 11 minutes. In his fifth season his career scoring average is 3.6 ppg.
Their starters are Dejounte Murray and Bogdan Bogdanovich at guard, Jalen Johnson and Saddiq Bey at forward, and Capela at center. All their rotation players are 6’5” to 6’10”.
Murray is having a good year at 21.6 points per game on 47% from the field. Bogdanovic averages 16.7 points, Johnson 15.6 on 52%, Bey 13.7, and Capela 11.1. De’Andre Hunter averages 15.3 off the bench, shooting 42.5% from deep this season. I guess he's their Sam Merrill. Or after last night, Dean Wade?
The Hawks shoot a lot of 3’s, ranking 10th in 3-point rate, but just 22nd in accuracy. They play at the 4th fastest pace in the league but are only 18th in fast break points per game. Their strongest point is offensive rebounding where they are 3rd in offensive rebound percentage and 2nd in putback points per missed shot. They average 13 offensive boards per game with Capela getting almost 5 despite playing less than half the game. They push the pace, jack up a lot of 3's, and crash the offensive glass.
The Hawks are not great shooters, ranking 21st in effective field goal percentage. But they are 5th in scoring because they lead the league in field goal attempts per game and get a more second chance points than every team but one.
The key for the Cavs will be to rebound the first missed shot and not give up put-backs. In three games the Cavs have allowed an average of 10.3 offensive rebounds and 106.3 points per game, about 17 points under the Hawks’ season average. The Cavs have defended the Hawks very well as the Hawks are shooting just 40.5% from the field and 33.1% on 3’s against the Cavs.
Defensively the Hawks have been a mess, ranking 26th to 30th in practically every defensive category, except forcing turnovers, where they rank 11th. The Cavs are averaging 123.7 points per game against Atlanta, so they’ve been shredding the Hawks’ defense, hitting 51% overall and 40% from deep over the course of their three wins. But that's with Donovan Mitchell averaging nearly 27 points and 9 assists. The question is how much better the Hawks' defense is without Young's matador routine.
Both teams played last night and traveled a similar distance so I don’t see either team as having the advantage. But the Cavs are coming off an exhilarating comeback win over the mighty Celtics and usually teams have a letdown after a win like that, just like they usually play much better the game after an embarrassing loss.
Last night against the Knicks 6'8" PF Jalen Johnson had 26 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists. I'd feel better if we had Mobley to defend him, but I'm sure Wade will do a good job. Murray had 21 points and 9 rebounds and Hunter came off the pines to score 22 in 25 minutes. When he comes in we need to expect him to shoot the ball.
Hunter, Bogdanovic, Johnson, and Garrison Mathews are all shooting 38-42% on 3's at home, so the Cavs need to defend the perimeter. Capela only takes 11 shots per game and probably half of those are on offensive rebounds, so Atlanta is basically a 3-point shooting team, especially without Young driving the lane.
The Hawks are in 10th place, 2.5 games ahead of the Nets for the final play-in spot, so every win is important for them. I assume Mobley will be out along with Mitchell and Strus. But I think as long as Dean Wade is available we should have no problem.
The Hawks are 27-34 overall and 15-16 at home. They are 0-3 against the Cavs this year, losing in November, December, and January by 23, 8, and 21 points.
Trae Young, averaging 26.4 points and 10.8 assists per game, is out with a finger injury that required surgery. The Hawks averaged 121.3 points with Young, but in the five games since he’s been out their average is 109.6, which would rank 27th in scoring for the season. They've gone from the 4th highest scoring team to the 27th without their All-Star point guard who either scored or assisted on about 50 points per game.
However, the Hawks are 29th in scoring defense, allowing 123.9 points per game with Young on the floor. But in the five games since Young was injured they are allowing 105.4 points. I knew he was a defensive liability but they’ve been over 18 points better defensively with him out. However, four of those five games were against teams ranked 20th to 26th in scoring, so this is probably a small sample deviation.
The Hawks are also missing backup center Onyeka Okongwu, so the only available center on their roster is Clint Capela. Both Capela and Okongwu average 25 minutes per game so they are basically co-starters (or "coasters"). Backup PF Bruno Fernando (6’9”, 240) will probably divide the center minutes with Capela. Bruno has only played in 24 games, averaging 11 minutes. In his fifth season his career scoring average is 3.6 ppg.
Their starters are Dejounte Murray and Bogdan Bogdanovich at guard, Jalen Johnson and Saddiq Bey at forward, and Capela at center. All their rotation players are 6’5” to 6’10”.
Murray is having a good year at 21.6 points per game on 47% from the field. Bogdanovic averages 16.7 points, Johnson 15.6 on 52%, Bey 13.7, and Capela 11.1. De’Andre Hunter averages 15.3 off the bench, shooting 42.5% from deep this season. I guess he's their Sam Merrill. Or after last night, Dean Wade?
The Hawks shoot a lot of 3’s, ranking 10th in 3-point rate, but just 22nd in accuracy. They play at the 4th fastest pace in the league but are only 18th in fast break points per game. Their strongest point is offensive rebounding where they are 3rd in offensive rebound percentage and 2nd in putback points per missed shot. They average 13 offensive boards per game with Capela getting almost 5 despite playing less than half the game. They push the pace, jack up a lot of 3's, and crash the offensive glass.
The Hawks are not great shooters, ranking 21st in effective field goal percentage. But they are 5th in scoring because they lead the league in field goal attempts per game and get a more second chance points than every team but one.
The key for the Cavs will be to rebound the first missed shot and not give up put-backs. In three games the Cavs have allowed an average of 10.3 offensive rebounds and 106.3 points per game, about 17 points under the Hawks’ season average. The Cavs have defended the Hawks very well as the Hawks are shooting just 40.5% from the field and 33.1% on 3’s against the Cavs.
Defensively the Hawks have been a mess, ranking 26th to 30th in practically every defensive category, except forcing turnovers, where they rank 11th. The Cavs are averaging 123.7 points per game against Atlanta, so they’ve been shredding the Hawks’ defense, hitting 51% overall and 40% from deep over the course of their three wins. But that's with Donovan Mitchell averaging nearly 27 points and 9 assists. The question is how much better the Hawks' defense is without Young's matador routine.
Both teams played last night and traveled a similar distance so I don’t see either team as having the advantage. But the Cavs are coming off an exhilarating comeback win over the mighty Celtics and usually teams have a letdown after a win like that, just like they usually play much better the game after an embarrassing loss.
Last night against the Knicks 6'8" PF Jalen Johnson had 26 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists. I'd feel better if we had Mobley to defend him, but I'm sure Wade will do a good job. Murray had 21 points and 9 rebounds and Hunter came off the pines to score 22 in 25 minutes. When he comes in we need to expect him to shoot the ball.
Hunter, Bogdanovic, Johnson, and Garrison Mathews are all shooting 38-42% on 3's at home, so the Cavs need to defend the perimeter. Capela only takes 11 shots per game and probably half of those are on offensive rebounds, so Atlanta is basically a 3-point shooting team, especially without Young driving the lane.
The Hawks are in 10th place, 2.5 games ahead of the Nets for the final play-in spot, so every win is important for them. I assume Mobley will be out along with Mitchell and Strus. But I think as long as Dean Wade is available we should have no problem.
