• Changing RCF's index page, please click on "Forums" to access the forums.

2023-24 Season | Game #67 | Cavs @ Rockets | March 16, 2024 | 5:00 p.m.

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Wham with the Right Hand

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Oct 3, 2019
Messages
10,000
Reaction score
28,733
Points
135
With two days off following one of their most impressive wins of the season the Cavs’ road trip continues with a visit to Houston for a Saturday matinee. This game will be a rematch of the Cavs’ 135-130 overtime win in Cleveland three months ago. The Cavs were missing Garland and Mobley that night but Mitchell scored 37 points and Merrill chipped in 19 off the bench. Center Alperen Sengun had a line of 24/8/6 in 31 minutes for Houston.

This time around the Cavs will have Garland (but not Mobley or Strus) and the Rockets will not have Sengun, who is out with an ankle injury suffered six days ago. Sengun leads the Rockets in scoring and rebounding and is second in assists. He is an emerging star in his third year.

The Rockets have been two completely different teams this year. Their home record is a glittering 22-11 while they are an abysmal 9-24 on the road. It’s by far the biggest discrepancy in the NBA; a 13-win difference. The Lakers are next at 8.5.

The Rockets have won four in a row and six of their last seven with the only loss coming against the 42-23 LA Clippers. They are on a roll. Two of those wins were on the road against Sacramento (19-12 at home) and Phoenix (21-14 at home). The Rockets are starting to win on the road, even against strong teams. But both those impressive wins came with Sengun in the lineup.

The Cavs have to approach this game as though they are playing a team that is 22-11 and has won 6 of 7, because that is exactly what they are doing. They can’t take Houston lightly because their season record is 31-35.

The Rockets are a young, athletic team and very good defensively, ranking 10th in scoring defense (although they gave up 122 in regulation to the Cavs in December). They are second best in defending the 3-point shot at 34.7% and as a result opponents take fewer 3’s than average. The Rockets rank 10th in defending the 2-point shot, 10th in points in the paint allowed, and 8th in defensive rebounding percentage.

Their only defensive weaknesses are shot blocking (25th) and fouling. They allow the second most free throw attempts per game. Since they don’t block shots well and they hack a lot I would attack the rim relentlessly, especially since it’s hard to make 3’s on this team. They’re already missing their top two centers in Steven Adams and Sengun and have moved power forward Jabari Smith Jr to the starting center role.

They are 9th in steals, however, so the Cavs need to be aware of their youth and quickness. The Rockets will have three starters aged 20-22 tonight.

Offensively they are a little below average, ranking 20th in points per game. With Sengun out they are probably not even 20th. He averages 21.1 points and 5.0 assists per game.

The Rockets are also missing two of their top reserves; Tari Eason ranks 6th in minutes played and Cam Whitmore ranks 8th. Amen Thompson has been promoted to starter with Sengun out, so the Rockets top three bench players are either out or in the starting lineup. Obviously their bench is very depleted.

The Rockets do not shoot well; they rank 28th in effective field goal percentage, 28th in 3-point percentage, and 25th in 2-point percentage. They are 29th in assists per possession so basically they try to get a favorable matchup and go one-on-one. But not passing the ball does reduce turnovers - they’re 9th fewest in that category.

The strongest part of their offensive game is drawing fouls as they rank 9th in free throw attempts per game. They like to run, ranking 9th in fast break points per game.

The key for the Cavs is to avoid excessive fouling and rebound all those missed shots. The Rockets are average in offensive rebound percentage.

Veteran Fred VanVleet, 30, starts at point guard. FVV averages 16.8 points and 8.0 assists but is only hitting 41% from the field. SG Jalen Green, 22, who the Rockets drafted over Evan Mobley, averages 18.1 ppg on 41% overall and 31% on 3’s. His numbers indicate he’s a high volume, low efficiency shooter. SF Amen Thompson, a 21-year-old rookie who was the 4th overall pick in the last draft, is now starting. He averages 51% from the field but just 16% on 3’s. He’s listed at 6’7”, 200 pounds.

PFJabari Smith, Jr, who was the 3rd overall pick in 2022, moves to center with Sengun out. Smith is 6’11, 220 and averages 13.3 points and 8.6 rebounds. The backup center is 6’11” veteran Jock Landale who averages 2.8 ppg. SF Dillon Brooks moves to power forward. He's a little small for the position at 6'6", but is a physical player. He averages 13 ppg.

In the first meeting between these teams the Rockets got a combined 38 points and 16 rebounds from Sengun and Eason, both of whom are out. Sengun is 6’11”, Eason is 6’8”, and Cam Whitmore is 6’7” so the Rockets are missing a lot of length right now. Eason leads the team in on/off at +10.5 points per 100 possessions, so he's a key contributor off the bench.

Nobody in tonight’s starting lineup is over 6’7” except Smith. With Eason and Whitmore out their bench consists of the 6’11” Landale, 6’0” Aaron Holiday, 6’4” Jae’Sean Tate, 6’6” Reggie Bullock, Jr, and 6’8” Jeff Green, who is now 37. We could see 7’4” Boban Marjanovic, but he’s only played in 9 games this year.

So the Rockets are missing their top scorer and rebounder and two of their top three bench players. For the Cavs Wade and Thompson return but Mobley and Strus are still out.

The Rockets are 2-0 since Sengun’s injury, beating San Antonio 103-101 and Washington 135-119. Cleveland will be the first strong team they’ve played since Sengun went down. Washington has lost 17 of 19 and San Antonio 16 of 20.
 
TT return game tonight. Gonna put up 30 points with 20 rebounds.
 
Just to add that with Sengun, Eason, and Whitmore out the Rockets are missing 43 points, 20 rebounds, and 7 assists, which constitutes 38% of their scoring and 44% of their rebounds.

Ball security will be huge for the Cavs as the Rockets rank 9th in steals and allow the second most free throw attempts. It's clear from those numbers that they gamble on defense with the result often being either a steal or a foul. Ranking 25th in block percentage the Rockets know they need to force turnovers as their rim protection is lacking, and without Tari Eason, their leading shot blocker, their rim protection is even weaker. The three injured players account for 42% of their blocked shots.

So the Cavs need to be careful with the ball and avoid excessive turnovers.
 
Last edited:
I read somewhere that Allen tends to play well in his home state of TX. With Sengun & Eason out, it is certainly set up for that again. I think the key to this one is our guards doing a good job on VanVleet. If we can contain him, (not just in scoring but in controlling the game) they are going to have a hard time generating enough offense to beat us. Shoot the 3 ball at a decent percentage, make sure FVV isn't the best guard on the floor tonight, and we win.
 
Ok, thanks for the facts, Wham. We should win, say a 56% chance. I'd go higher, but we have a tendency to play down to our competition. I hope that doesn't happen any more this season.

Allen will feast tonight, say a 20-15 game. Donovan and Darius will score a lot on drive and fouls. Look for 20-30 free throws for the team, including Allen, who draws a lot of fouls. I look for a 119-104 victory.
 

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Video

Episode 3-14: "Time for Playoff Vengeance on Mickey"

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Spotify

Episode 3:14: " Time for Playoff Vengeance on Mickey."
Top