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The Cavs return home after a 2-1 road trip to take on the Miami Heat, who are currently in 8th place and one game out of 6th as they fight to avoid the play-in tournament. The Heat actually have a better winning percentage on the road at 20-16.
The Heat are struggling, having lost 5 of 7 with both wins coming against the hapless Detroit Pistons. The Heat have not beaten a team with a winning record since Sacremento on Feb. 26.
The Heat, like the Cavs, have injury issues. Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson, Kevin Love, and Duncan Robinson are out while Jimmy Butler and Nikola Jovic are questionable. They are missing about 53 points per game in scoring and if Butler and Jokic are also out that’s 27 more.
The Cavs and Heat are 1-1 this season having played in November and December. These teams will play again on Sunday in Miami.
The Cavs will be missing Mitchell, Mobley, Strus, and Wade.
Miami hangs their hat on defense as they rank just 27th in scoring at just under 110 points per game. They are 26th in points in the paint, 2-point percentage, and fast break points per game. They play slow, ranking 28th in field goal attempts per game. They do draw a lot of fouls, ranking 8th in free throw attempts per possession. They are well below average in offensive rebound percentage.
The Cavaliers are coming off a game where they held the NBA’s highest scoring team to 22 points under their scoring average in their own building, so if the Cavs continue to play that level of defense they could easily hold the Heat to under 100 points, especially without Herro, Richardson, and possibly Butler and others.
Defensively the Heat are elite, ranking 4th in points allowed per game, although part of that is because they play so slowly on offense. They are 9th in defensive efficiency, which is a better indication of how well they defend. They are 4th in points allowed in the paint and 16th in effective field goal percentage. They don’t foul much, their defensive rebounding is excellent, and they force a lot of turnovers, ranking 8th in that category.
The Heat are last in shot blocking but 8th in steals. It’s surprising they are 4th in points allowed in the paint despite blocking fewer shots than any other team. My guess is they do a great job of collapsing into the paint and stripping the ball before the shot, or doubling or tripling the ball and forcing a turnover. Ball security is the key against a smaller but athletic defense that swarms the ball and tries to force turnovers.
They’re above average at defending the 3-point shot, ranking 10th. They manage to be great at defending the paint and still not being vulnerable to the 3.
Jimmy Butler averages 21 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists on 50% from the field and 42% on 3’s. Butler is dealing with a foot injury and missed Monday’s game. Tyler Herro and Josh Richardson, who are out, average 21 and 10 ppg, respectively. Bam Adebayo averages 20 points and 11 rebounds and Terry Rosier averages 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists.
The Heat are a very balanced scoring team with seven players averaging in double figures and two more averaging 9-10 ppg. Seven players average between 8-15 field goal attempts per game with Herro shooting 18.
If Butler is out they will be missing their top two scorers on a team that ranks 27th in scoring, so that will be a problem, especially playing against the team that ranks 4th in defensive efficiency.
If Jovic (6’10”) is out they will have nobody over 6’9” in the starting lineup. They have a couple of 6’10” centers on the bench in Thomas Bryant and Orlando Robinson, but they each average just 10 minutes a game so obviously Spoelstra isn’t too impressed with them.
Both teams are missing multiple key players so it's just a matter of whose bench plays the best. Darius Garland is coming off a game where he was 1-for-9 on 3's so hopefully he'll bounce back.
The Heat are struggling, having lost 5 of 7 with both wins coming against the hapless Detroit Pistons. The Heat have not beaten a team with a winning record since Sacremento on Feb. 26.
The Heat, like the Cavs, have injury issues. Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson, Kevin Love, and Duncan Robinson are out while Jimmy Butler and Nikola Jovic are questionable. They are missing about 53 points per game in scoring and if Butler and Jokic are also out that’s 27 more.
The Cavs and Heat are 1-1 this season having played in November and December. These teams will play again on Sunday in Miami.
The Cavs will be missing Mitchell, Mobley, Strus, and Wade.
Miami hangs their hat on defense as they rank just 27th in scoring at just under 110 points per game. They are 26th in points in the paint, 2-point percentage, and fast break points per game. They play slow, ranking 28th in field goal attempts per game. They do draw a lot of fouls, ranking 8th in free throw attempts per possession. They are well below average in offensive rebound percentage.
The Cavaliers are coming off a game where they held the NBA’s highest scoring team to 22 points under their scoring average in their own building, so if the Cavs continue to play that level of defense they could easily hold the Heat to under 100 points, especially without Herro, Richardson, and possibly Butler and others.
Defensively the Heat are elite, ranking 4th in points allowed per game, although part of that is because they play so slowly on offense. They are 9th in defensive efficiency, which is a better indication of how well they defend. They are 4th in points allowed in the paint and 16th in effective field goal percentage. They don’t foul much, their defensive rebounding is excellent, and they force a lot of turnovers, ranking 8th in that category.
The Heat are last in shot blocking but 8th in steals. It’s surprising they are 4th in points allowed in the paint despite blocking fewer shots than any other team. My guess is they do a great job of collapsing into the paint and stripping the ball before the shot, or doubling or tripling the ball and forcing a turnover. Ball security is the key against a smaller but athletic defense that swarms the ball and tries to force turnovers.
They’re above average at defending the 3-point shot, ranking 10th. They manage to be great at defending the paint and still not being vulnerable to the 3.
Jimmy Butler averages 21 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists on 50% from the field and 42% on 3’s. Butler is dealing with a foot injury and missed Monday’s game. Tyler Herro and Josh Richardson, who are out, average 21 and 10 ppg, respectively. Bam Adebayo averages 20 points and 11 rebounds and Terry Rosier averages 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists.
The Heat are a very balanced scoring team with seven players averaging in double figures and two more averaging 9-10 ppg. Seven players average between 8-15 field goal attempts per game with Herro shooting 18.
If Butler is out they will be missing their top two scorers on a team that ranks 27th in scoring, so that will be a problem, especially playing against the team that ranks 4th in defensive efficiency.
If Jovic (6’10”) is out they will have nobody over 6’9” in the starting lineup. They have a couple of 6’10” centers on the bench in Thomas Bryant and Orlando Robinson, but they each average just 10 minutes a game so obviously Spoelstra isn’t too impressed with them.
Both teams are missing multiple key players so it's just a matter of whose bench plays the best. Darius Garland is coming off a game where he was 1-for-9 on 3's so hopefully he'll bounce back.
