2023 Guardians Offseason Thread!

[CDAV45]

If you're asking: "Is it guaranteed that Bo starts opening day in 2023 behind the plate?" I'd say the answer is no.

If you're asking: "Does everyone think that Bo Naylor is the best catching prospect in the organization, and that by the end of 2023, we either have him behind the plate or we've acquired someone else?" Then I'd say the answer is yes.

I think most people are expecting us to break camp next year with Bo and another catcher (Maile, Hedges or Lavastida) on the roster. But, things can always happen. If Naylor struggles in the Spring, he could start the year in Columbus.

Why would he start in Columbus? Hedges struggled and he stuck. As long as he's performing defensively he'll have a long leash to figure it out offensively. Personally I don't see how he could perform as bad as Hedges.

 

[CDAV45]

If Hankins goes unprotected he will be selected. Of that I have no doubt.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

From The Athletic:

It’s not just the high-paid players, either. Nestor Cortes was a marvel, and he was available to every last major-league team if they had vision. He signed a minor-league deal with the Yankees in January 2021. The Pirates could have had him. The Hanwha Eagles would have had a shot with a multi-year offer. The Yankees signed him, which gave them the better starter in Game 5 of an elimination game. It’s a funny sport.

The Guardians did a lot of things right in their postseason charge. In the end, though, they didn’t have enough beefy big boys bopping baseballs over the fence, and they also didn’t have a better starting pitcher in an elimination game. The Yankees had those. It doesn’t have to be more complicated than that.

It's ironic that with all the eight-figure salaries the Yankees have on their payroll, it was a guy they signed off the scrap heap who is making $727,500 this year that beat the Guardians in the deciding game. That was a raise over the $386 K he made the year before.

The Yankees got lucky - they didn't know Cortes would be this good. They also got lucky with the rainout which allowed Cortes to pitch Game 5 instead of Taillon, a right-hander.

The Guardians won both games that were started by Bieber and McKenzie. They lost the games that were started by Quantrill and Civale. If the Guardians had the better regular season record they would have started Bieber twice and possibly McKenzie twice while the Yankees would have had to start Cole and Cortes in the wild card round.

Next year they need to get a first round bye. They were 46-26 after the break. If they pick up where they left off, using where they are now as a starting point (as Tito said), that should be possible.

 

[sportscoach]

Alright, the first order of business for the offseason is obviously trying to make trades... but since so few trades happen before the rule 5 draft (and why would a team bail us out if we have a roster crunch?), we're going to start with the 40-man and the R5 draft.

Current 40-man

1. Shane Bieber
2. Aaron Civale
3. Triston McKenzie
4. Zach Plesac
5. Cal Quantrill
6. Cody Morris
7. Emmanuel Clase
8. Enyel De Los Santos
9. Sam Hentges
10. James Karinchak
11. Eli Morgan
12. Nick Sandlin
13. Trevor Stephan
14. Xzavion Curry
15. Hunter Gaddis
16. Kirk McCarty
17. Carlos Vargas
18. Konnor Pilkington
19. Austin Hedges
20. Luke Maile
21. Bo Naylor
22. Bryan Lavastida
23. Gabriel Arias
24. Tyler Freeman
25. Andres Gimenez
26. Nolan Jones
27. Owen Miller
28. Josh Naylor
29. Jhonkensy Noel
30. Jose Ramirez
31. Brayan Rocchio
32. Amed Rosario
33. Jose Tena
34. Will Benson
35. Will Brennan
36. Oscar Gonzalez
37. Steven Kwan
38. Richie Palacios
39. Myles Straw
40. George Valera
41. Anthony Gose

Moves:

• Release Anthony Gose
• Release Richie Palacios
• Release Luke Maile
• Release Austin Hedges

I think those are the easy and obvious ones. That gets you the 3 necessary spots to protect your absolute 3 must-protect guys.

• Add Peyton Battenfield to the 40-man roster
• Add Joey Cantillo to the 40-man roster
• Add Angel Martinez to the 40-man roster

Now you're looking at protecting the following:

• Ethan Hankins
• Lenny Torres
• Gabriel Rodriguez
• Johnathan Rodriguez

And the following are guys that you could release from the 40-man to make that happen:

• Xzavion Curry
• Hunter Gaddis
• Kirk McCarty
• Carlos Vargas
• Konnor Pilkington
• Owen Miller
• Will Benson

I don't think Torres needs to be protected. I'm not sure about Hankins... he might be one of those injured guys that a bottom-feeder team selects in Rule 5 just to get a look at him. I don't think Gabriel Rodriguez needs to be protected--it's going to be difficult to select a guy who hasn't played above high A ball. Johnathan Rodriguez is someone I'd look at protecting.

I think releasing Kirk McCarty to protect Ethan Hankins makes sense. I don't think there's anyone I'd release to protect Johnathan Rodriguez.

So, heading into the Rule 5 draft, here is my 40-man:

1. Shane Bieber
2. Aaron Civale
3. Triston McKenzie
4. Zach Plesac
5. Cal Quantrill
6. Cody Morris
7. Emmanuel Clase
8. Enyel De Los Santos
9. Sam Hentges
10. James Karinchak
11. Eli Morgan
12. Nick Sandlin
13. Trevor Stephan
14. Xzavion Curry
15. Hunter Gaddis
16. Carlos Vargas
17. Konnor Pilkington
18. Bo Naylor
19. Bryan Lavastida
20. Gabriel Arias
21. Tyler Freeman
22. Andres Gimenez
23. Nolan Jones
24. Owen Miller
25. Josh Naylor
26. Jhonkensy Noel
27. Jose Ramirez
28. Brayan Rocchio
29. Amed Rosario
30. Jose Tena
31. Will Benson
32. Will Brennan
33. Oscar Gonzalez
34. Steven Kwan
35. Myles Straw
36. George Valera
37. Angel Martinez
38. Joey Cantillo
39. Peyton Battenfield
40. Ethan Hankins

Next up is potential trades, signings and extensions before we head into spring training and look at lineups and camp invites.

I wouldn't actually count Palacios out... He is way too good of a hitter just to let him go...

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I think Abreu would want to stay with the White Sox - he's been with them for nine years.

Spotrac has his market value at $9.1 million. He made $18 million last year. I don't see us offering that and I don't see him leaving the Sox.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

From The Athletic post-mortem:

There’s a difference between “helps the Guardians win 92 games and take the AL Central” and “the pitcher you want with the ball in an elimination game in Yankee Stadium,” though. It would be one thing if the Guardians were misguidedly optimistic about Civale’s ability to shut the Yankees down. If they were saying things like, “Heck yeah, this is our guy, go get ’em,” well, that’s their guy.

But they pulled him with two outs in the first inning, which makes me think that they were at least half-prepared for this outcome.

In which case, maybe they should have rethought their whole approach....

I don't know, you let your .. 7th? best pitcher face the only good part of the Yankee lineup. — Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) October 18, 2022

Civale was, in essence, the opener. It’s hard to imagine the Guardians thinking that he was going to pitch them into the eighth; it’s hard to imagine them thinking he was pitching into the sixth. He was going to give them some length, absorb some innings. The same thing he did all season.

So you have to look at this differently. The question isn’t “Can this guy help us win one game out of 162?” It’s “Can this guy get Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton out in the ninth inning of a scoreless game on the road?” Because while it wasn’t technically a scoreless ninth inning on the road, that’s exactly what the first inning was. You just have to use your imagination. Any screwups in that first inning lead to an avalanche that’s hard to contain.

Civale is good at what he does, which is keeping his team in the ballgame more often than not. That’s super useful in a long season, with games against the Tigers, A’s and others. But if you’re planning on an all-hands-on-deck strategy, he might not be the guy for the first inning against the Yankees’ best hitters. Maybe you want a procession of targeted matchups and bat-missing relievers. Guardians relievers were all fresh because of the rainout, and even though the ALCS starts in [checks watch] a few minutes, that’s how you attack an elimination game.

That was my concern - that Civale would be rusty after 12 days off and not have his command in the first inning when the Yankees' top hitters were coming up, including Rizzo who was 5-for-10 against him with two home runs. The Guardians could not afford to give up 2-3 runs in the first inning with their limited offense and the Yankees with still 7-8 more innings to add on.

In retrospect, Tito had way too much faith in our "seventh best pitcher". (In retrospect he was our 13th best). A procession of Hentges, Clase, Stephan, Karinchak, DLS, and possibly Morgan would have been the better option. But in the end we scored one run in nine innings and I don't think any combination of pitchers would have held that lineup to one run.

 

[Damage]

My top 3 targets (wish list):

1. Brandon Nimmo - CF
My #1 target. Replaces Straw, gets on base a ton, covers a ton of field. Main issue is durability.
2. Josh Bell - DH/1B
OPS .827 from the left side of the plate, .767 from right. Would make a nice platoon with Naylor at 1B/DH
3. Willson Conteras - C
Pipedream.

 

[Criznit]

Is it just me but

I think Abreu would want to stay with the White Sox - he's been with them for nine years.

Spotrac has his market value at $9.1 million. He made $18 million last year. I don't see us offering that and I don't see him leaving the Sox.

ChiSox have made several indications they plan on moving on from Abreu and installing Andrew Vaughn in the spot.

I am not saying we need to get him, but he checks an impressive amount of boxes for a team with a need that operates like the Guardians.

 

[Damage]

Not sure on timeline for Valera but I would expect him to start at AAA and move up pre-AS break.
They also have to consider the following dudes as well:

• Arias
• Will Brennan
• Nolan Jones
• Tyler Freeman
• Bo Naylor
• Lavastida

The good news is this farm system is so fucking deep with pitching and hitting that the choices are going to be tough.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Why would he start in Columbus? Hedges struggled and he stuck. As long as he's performing defensively he'll have a long leash to figure it out offensively. Personally I don't see how he could perform as bad as Hedges.

I don't expect him to, but it's entirely possible.

"Hey, Bo's struggling a little bit, both at the plate and at handling the pitching staff. Let's use that first month of the season to get an extended look at Lavastida and let Bo find his footing before we throw him to the wolves up here" is a conversation I could imagine happening.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I wouldn't actually count Palacios out... He is way too good of a hitter just to let him go...

I've seen enough.

If he turns out to be the next Yandy, cool--that's good for him.

Opening up his spot to get more looks at, and more development reps for, higher ceiling guys is something I'm not hesitating to do.

I'm not holding onto him, and leaving someone unprotected, in hopes that we can trade him.

 

[Criznit]

I've seen enough.

If he turns out to be the next Yandy, cool--that's good for him.

Opening up his spot to get more looks at, and more development reps for, higher ceiling guys is something I'm not hesitating to do.

I'm not holding onto him, and leaving someone unprotected, in hopes that we can trade him.

I think you'll see De La Santos DFA'd before Palacios but wouldn't bet on it.

 

[KluberSociety]

I've seen enough.

If he turns out to be the next Yandy, cool--that's good for him.

Opening up his spot to get more looks at, and more development reps for, higher ceiling guys is something I'm not hesitating to do.

I'm not holding onto him, and leaving someone unprotected, in hopes that we can trade him.

Not to mention redundant with Brennan. Soft hitting contact oriented lefty only he can't actually play the OF well.

 

[Juice is Loose]

Not sure on timeline for Valera but I would expect him to start at AAA and move up pre-AS break.
They also have to consider the following dudes as well:

• Arias
• Will Brennan
• Nolan Jones
• Tyler Freeman
• Bo Naylor
• Lavastida

The good news is this farm system is so fucking deep with pitching and hitting that the choices are going to be tough.

Gotta think if we can make a move for a power bat or SP, some of these guys would be on the move. Prob not Arias or Naylor

 

[KluberSociety]

I think you'll see De La Santos DFA'd before Palacios but wouldn't bet on it.

IMO, absolute insanity