- Joined
- Oct 3, 2019
- Messages
- 10,126
- Reaction score
- 29,002
- Points
- 135
The rapidly reviving Guardians head west to take on the San Diego Padres, who are in 4th place in the N.L. West despite a $200 million payroll. Both teams are 31-34, but are going in opposite directions. The Padres peaked at 18-15 but have since gone 13-19. The Guardians have won 8 of their last 13, all against teams .500 or better.
The Padres are 15-18 at home, 5-9 against the American League, and 19-24 against right-handed starters. That describes the Guardians in two of the three games. They Pads are 12-10 against lefties so the Thursday game that Logan Allen will start might be the most challenging.
The Padres are hitting just .216/.682 against RHP’s versus .253/.767 against lefties. They average just 4.0 runs per game at home against 4.4 on the road, so they are most vulnerable against RHP’s at home. I don’t expect a big scoring outburst, at least against Bibee and Civale.
Petco Park ranks 29th of 30 in park factor, meaning it’s the second most pitcher friendly park in baseball over the last three years. This year it’s the toughest park to score runs in - the run factor is 83 with 100 being average.
Petco is the most extreme pitcher's park in baseball today, an arrangement that favors San Diego pitchers and frustrates visiting power hitters. While center field is only 396 feet from home plate, the 'power alleys' of left-center and right-center are even further at 402 feet, while the left and right field lines are 334 and 322 feet, respectively. - parkfactors.com
This has all the earmarks of a low scoring series. However, the Guardians hit better on the road (4.3 runs per game against 3.4 at home), so they may be able to scratch some runs together. They are averaging 5.0 runs over their last 10 games.
As a team the Padres are below average in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. They are 28th in batting average but 2nd in walks per game at just over four. Despite a team batting average of .228 opposing pitchers fear them. They have six hitters who are 6'2", 215 pounds or larger. This is not a team you want to get in a fight with.
It seems odd that they spent so much money on right-handed power hitters when they play in one of the toughest parks to homer in. The Guardians have a pretty fast group of outfielders and that could be to their advantage in a park with a ton of space in the outfield. I would advise them to play deep and not let anything get over their heads. If they give up a bloop, fine. Those big boys don't run very well on the bases.
I'm counting on Amed for at least one triple in this park.
The Pads are 28th in BABIP, suggesting they make a lot of weak contact and don’t get many infield hits. Fangraphs ranks them 23rd in team speed. They have some big, right-handed power hitters like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr, and Nelson Cruz that don’t leg out many hits. The key is to avoid walks and home runs. They don’t hit for a high average and they don’t have a lot of speed (50 SB in 65 games). They depend on walks and power hitting to score.
The Padres have some big money sluggers on their roster, including Tatis, Soto, Machado, Bogaerts, and 42-year-old Nelson Cruz. Despite the big names they rank 22nd in runs per game, but a big part of that is their ball park. They are 10th in runs per game on the road but 28th at home, which shows how big the park factor is at Petco.
The Padres’ pitching staff ranks 8th in ERA, 6th in WHIP, but 15th in FIP, suggesting they get a lot of help from their defense. In fact, Fangraphs ranks them 8th defensively. Their home ERA is 3.48 against 4.09 on the road.
Their best hitter at Petco this year has been Tatis (.295/.910), followed by Soto (.246/.824) and Bogaerts (.274/.775). Tatis has 7 home runs in 20 games at home; nobody else has more than four, and they've played 33 home games.
The Padres will send three veteran right-handers against the Guardians, starting with 30-year-old Joe Musgrove (3-2, 4.35). In four starts at Petco Musgrove has an ERA of 5.89. However, in his last three starts he has only allowed two earned runs over 17.1 innings. Batters hit .351 against him in April, .247 in May, and .184 so far in June. Musgrove has an extreme reverse split as lefties are hitting just .211/.624 off him against .311/.863 for righties. That’s a difference of almost 340 points of OPS.
Josh Bell is 5-for-8 against Musgrove.
Tanner Bibee leads it off for the Guardians. Bibee has been outstanding, allowing two runs or fewer in six of his eight starts. His ERA is 3.05 and batters are hitting .230/.620 off him. He has allowed just three home runs in eight starts - all solo shots. Opponents are 1-for-14 against him with RISP and two out.
Bibee’s only significant vulnerability has been facing batters for the third time. They’re hitting .303/.818 the third time through the order.
Game 2 will be Civale against Michael Wacha (6-2, 3.18), who has allowed five runs in his last seven starts. Game 3 will be Logan Allen against Yu Darvish, who has a home ERA of 2.68.
Everything points to a low scoring series. Both teams have great starting pitching and they’re playing in the most difficult park in the majors to score. The Guardians have been winning lately while the Padres are 13-19 in their last 32 games, so the Guardians are playing better at the moment. It could come down to who can hit a home run or who makes an error at a critical time.
This is probably a pivotal series between two disappointing teams. The Guardians are coming off a 92-win season in which they were the youngest team in the majors. After 65 games they're still below water. The Padres are the opposite of the Guardians; old and expensive. Their starting pitchers are 36 (Darvish), 32, 31, 30, and 30. Their catchers are 33 and 30. Bogaerts and Machado are 30 and DH Matt Carpenter is 37. The Padres have four players making $20-25 million and three more making $14-17 million. They were funded to compete with the Dodgers but are 9.5 games back and are sinking in the West.
The Guardians are trying to build on the little bit of momentum they've established while the Padres are trying to turn it around before it's too late.
The Padres are 15-18 at home, 5-9 against the American League, and 19-24 against right-handed starters. That describes the Guardians in two of the three games. They Pads are 12-10 against lefties so the Thursday game that Logan Allen will start might be the most challenging.
The Padres are hitting just .216/.682 against RHP’s versus .253/.767 against lefties. They average just 4.0 runs per game at home against 4.4 on the road, so they are most vulnerable against RHP’s at home. I don’t expect a big scoring outburst, at least against Bibee and Civale.
Petco Park ranks 29th of 30 in park factor, meaning it’s the second most pitcher friendly park in baseball over the last three years. This year it’s the toughest park to score runs in - the run factor is 83 with 100 being average.
Petco is the most extreme pitcher's park in baseball today, an arrangement that favors San Diego pitchers and frustrates visiting power hitters. While center field is only 396 feet from home plate, the 'power alleys' of left-center and right-center are even further at 402 feet, while the left and right field lines are 334 and 322 feet, respectively. - parkfactors.com
This has all the earmarks of a low scoring series. However, the Guardians hit better on the road (4.3 runs per game against 3.4 at home), so they may be able to scratch some runs together. They are averaging 5.0 runs over their last 10 games.
As a team the Padres are below average in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. They are 28th in batting average but 2nd in walks per game at just over four. Despite a team batting average of .228 opposing pitchers fear them. They have six hitters who are 6'2", 215 pounds or larger. This is not a team you want to get in a fight with.
It seems odd that they spent so much money on right-handed power hitters when they play in one of the toughest parks to homer in. The Guardians have a pretty fast group of outfielders and that could be to their advantage in a park with a ton of space in the outfield. I would advise them to play deep and not let anything get over their heads. If they give up a bloop, fine. Those big boys don't run very well on the bases.
I'm counting on Amed for at least one triple in this park.
The Pads are 28th in BABIP, suggesting they make a lot of weak contact and don’t get many infield hits. Fangraphs ranks them 23rd in team speed. They have some big, right-handed power hitters like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr, and Nelson Cruz that don’t leg out many hits. The key is to avoid walks and home runs. They don’t hit for a high average and they don’t have a lot of speed (50 SB in 65 games). They depend on walks and power hitting to score.
The Padres have some big money sluggers on their roster, including Tatis, Soto, Machado, Bogaerts, and 42-year-old Nelson Cruz. Despite the big names they rank 22nd in runs per game, but a big part of that is their ball park. They are 10th in runs per game on the road but 28th at home, which shows how big the park factor is at Petco.
The Padres’ pitching staff ranks 8th in ERA, 6th in WHIP, but 15th in FIP, suggesting they get a lot of help from their defense. In fact, Fangraphs ranks them 8th defensively. Their home ERA is 3.48 against 4.09 on the road.
Their best hitter at Petco this year has been Tatis (.295/.910), followed by Soto (.246/.824) and Bogaerts (.274/.775). Tatis has 7 home runs in 20 games at home; nobody else has more than four, and they've played 33 home games.
The Padres will send three veteran right-handers against the Guardians, starting with 30-year-old Joe Musgrove (3-2, 4.35). In four starts at Petco Musgrove has an ERA of 5.89. However, in his last three starts he has only allowed two earned runs over 17.1 innings. Batters hit .351 against him in April, .247 in May, and .184 so far in June. Musgrove has an extreme reverse split as lefties are hitting just .211/.624 off him against .311/.863 for righties. That’s a difference of almost 340 points of OPS.
Josh Bell is 5-for-8 against Musgrove.
Tanner Bibee leads it off for the Guardians. Bibee has been outstanding, allowing two runs or fewer in six of his eight starts. His ERA is 3.05 and batters are hitting .230/.620 off him. He has allowed just three home runs in eight starts - all solo shots. Opponents are 1-for-14 against him with RISP and two out.
Bibee’s only significant vulnerability has been facing batters for the third time. They’re hitting .303/.818 the third time through the order.
Game 2 will be Civale against Michael Wacha (6-2, 3.18), who has allowed five runs in his last seven starts. Game 3 will be Logan Allen against Yu Darvish, who has a home ERA of 2.68.
Everything points to a low scoring series. Both teams have great starting pitching and they’re playing in the most difficult park in the majors to score. The Guardians have been winning lately while the Padres are 13-19 in their last 32 games, so the Guardians are playing better at the moment. It could come down to who can hit a home run or who makes an error at a critical time.
This is probably a pivotal series between two disappointing teams. The Guardians are coming off a 92-win season in which they were the youngest team in the majors. After 65 games they're still below water. The Padres are the opposite of the Guardians; old and expensive. Their starting pitchers are 36 (Darvish), 32, 31, 30, and 30. Their catchers are 33 and 30. Bogaerts and Machado are 30 and DH Matt Carpenter is 37. The Padres have four players making $20-25 million and three more making $14-17 million. They were funded to compete with the Dodgers but are 9.5 games back and are sinking in the West.
The Guardians are trying to build on the little bit of momentum they've established while the Padres are trying to turn it around before it's too late.
Last edited:
