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The Guardians’ western road trip continues with a weekend series against the first place Diamondbacks, who lead the Dodgers by two games in the N.L. West at 41-28. They are just a bit over .500 at home, however, at 21-17.
Looking just at their home statistics, the D-Backs are above average offensively and below average in pitching. Fangraphs has them 4th in base running and 10th in team defense.
The D-Backs have been playing very well lately, having won 12 of 17. They are 28-17 against right-handed pitching and 13-11 against lefties. They average a run every 6.2 at-bats against RHP’s. They will face three Guardian right-handers this series.
At home the Snakes rank 9th in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They are more of a station-to-station team, ranking 22nd in home runs per game at 1.0. They are 10th in OBP, 5th in batting average, and 9th in slugging. They are just 23rd in walks per game at home, so they are not a three true outcome team that depends on walks and home runs while striking out a lot. They string together hits and are excellent on the bases. They are tough to strike out, ranking 5th lowest in that category. With relatively few walks, strikeouts, and home runs they put a ton of balls in play. Defense will be huge for the Guardians.
The D-Backs rank 8th in fly ball percentage but just 18th in home runs per fly ball, so there should be a lot of fly balls in play. With the Guardians’ speed in the outfield that should be to their advantage.
Fangraphs ranks the D-Backs a close 2nd in team speed, so it will be crucial for the G’s outfielders to get to those fly balls in the gaps and to the warning track and turn potential doubles and triples into outs. This is one team that you want Straw on the field against.
At home the D-Backs are hitting a robust .268/.771. Five players have between 5-7 home runs so there are a number of guys who can go deep. Lourdes Gurriel Jr is hitting .291/.893 at home, followed by 22-year-old phenom Corbin Carroll (.271/.876), Ketel Marte (.280/.839), Christian Walker (.254/.804), Alek Thomas (.279/.787), and Emmanuel Rivera (.311/.716). They have 11 players with a home OPS of over .700 with 50 or more at-bats. Five of them are over .800.
The D-Backs may not have an Aaron Judge or Mike Trout, but they have a lot of guys who can hit. Even their catcher, Gabriel Moreno, is hitting .319 at home.
The D-Backs have the kind of offense the Guardians are trying to assemble; no 40-homer guys but 8-9 players who can all produce at an above-average level for their position. The kind of batting order where the pitcher never gets a breather.
In June the D-Backs are hitting .267/.794 and averaging 5.6 runs per game. Like the Guardians they are hitting better now that the chilly weather is mostly over.
Corbin Carroll, their 5’10”, 165-pound outfielder who is still technically a rookie, is hitting .367/1.283 in June. On the season he has 12 home runs in just 164 AB’s against RHP’s. He’s hitting .306/.977 and has the sixth highest wRC+ in baseball. Fangraphs raved about him in this column:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/corbin-carroll-is-really-doing-it/
Dominic Fletcher, a rookie outfielder listed at 5’6”, 185, is hitting .370/.979 against RHP’s so I expect to see him this series.
The Guardians will be starting McKenzie, Bieber, and Bibee in that order, so they will be tested against a deep and talented batting order that is killing it so far in June and hits better against RHP’s. The D-Backs are 4th in the majors in runs per game this month.
Fortunately, the D-Backs’ pitchers are not keeping up with their hitters. They rank 19th in home ERA at 4.43, 22nd in WHIP, and 22nd in walks per game. They don’t allow a lot of home runs (10th), but they allow baserunners. More recently they have not been good. Their June ERA is 4.96 against 4.33 for the first two months. Their WHIP in June is 1.52, ranking 27th. We could actually see quite a few runs this series. Neither team strikes out or walks much so there will be a lot of action with tons of balls in play.
The Diamondbacks might be a possible trade partner for the Guardians since they need starting pitching. The Guardians will not see their leading winner this series, Merrill Kelly (8-3, 3.04 ERA). Their other excellent starter, Zac Gallen (7-2, 3.09), goes tonight. After those two their starters are Ryne Nelson (3-4, 5.30), who we won’t see, Tommy Henry (3-1, 4.86), and Zach Davies (1-2, 5.46). Two other starters who got five and four starts have ERA’s over 8.00.
They appear to be desperate for starting pitching after Kelley and Gallen. They are in first place thanks to hitting, defense, and base running, but can they keep ahead of the Dodgers with just two good starters? According to powerrankingsguru.com they’ve played the 4th easiest schedule and have the 5th hardest remaining schedule, so they need at least one more decent starter and more likely two. How aggressive are they willing to be?
Would they trade 19-year-old centerfielder Druw Jones, the #2 pick in last year's draft, in a package for Bieber?
Henry and Davies will start Saturday and Sunday. Henry has allowed 10 runs in his last 9 innings. Davies, age 30, has ERA’s of 5.78, 4.09, and 5.46 over the last three years.
Zach Gallen goes against McKenzie tonight. Gallen is 7-2, 3.09. He’s struggled a bit in his last two starts, allowing 7 earned runs in 11 innings. The Tigers roughed him up for 10 hits and five runs in his last start (in Detroit). In his previous start he threw 110 pitches so he may have been a little fatigued against the Tigers.
Gallen has been somewhat vulnerable the third time through the batting order (.304/.796). He’s allowed only one home run in 47 innings at home so he’s almost impossible to take deep. Current Guardians are 4-for-28 against him. On top of that, Gallen has a home ERA this year of 0.96 (5.79 on the road). The numbers say it will be very tough to score on this guy in his home ballpark.
Triston McKenzie will make his third start after returning from injury. The Astros roughed him up for five runs in five innings in his last start. They jumped him for three runs in the first inning on two hits and a Jose Abreu three-run homer, so Triston needs to be ready from the first pitch.
We saw what happened in San Diego when the Guardians’ starters were not sharp in the first inning. The Padres scored eight runs in the first innings of that series. It seems like teams are now stacking their best hitters at the top of the lineup to get them more at-bats and to try and jump the opposing starter before he “settles in”. The Padres had Juan Soto batting 2nd. The Astros had Jose Altuve. The Red Sox had Yoshida. The Angels bat Mike Trout 2nd.
Quick digression: I don’t think Guardians’ starters have the luxury of using the first inning to “establish the fastball” and “find their rhythm”. The hitters are sitting on fastballs and are swinging early in the count. The starters need to be ready to mix in all their pitchers right off the bat or they might find themselves down 3-0 before they break a sweat. Look at how McKenzie, Bibee, and Allen got hammered in the first innings of their last starts.
The D-Backs are on a roll offensively and McKenzie can’t start the game throwing fastballs down the middle like he did against the Astros when 11 of his first 15 pitches were fastballs, mostly up, and three of them resulted in hits, including the three-run homer that was the difference in a 6-4 loss.
Looking just at their home statistics, the D-Backs are above average offensively and below average in pitching. Fangraphs has them 4th in base running and 10th in team defense.
The D-Backs have been playing very well lately, having won 12 of 17. They are 28-17 against right-handed pitching and 13-11 against lefties. They average a run every 6.2 at-bats against RHP’s. They will face three Guardian right-handers this series.
At home the Snakes rank 9th in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They are more of a station-to-station team, ranking 22nd in home runs per game at 1.0. They are 10th in OBP, 5th in batting average, and 9th in slugging. They are just 23rd in walks per game at home, so they are not a three true outcome team that depends on walks and home runs while striking out a lot. They string together hits and are excellent on the bases. They are tough to strike out, ranking 5th lowest in that category. With relatively few walks, strikeouts, and home runs they put a ton of balls in play. Defense will be huge for the Guardians.
The D-Backs rank 8th in fly ball percentage but just 18th in home runs per fly ball, so there should be a lot of fly balls in play. With the Guardians’ speed in the outfield that should be to their advantage.
Fangraphs ranks the D-Backs a close 2nd in team speed, so it will be crucial for the G’s outfielders to get to those fly balls in the gaps and to the warning track and turn potential doubles and triples into outs. This is one team that you want Straw on the field against.
At home the D-Backs are hitting a robust .268/.771. Five players have between 5-7 home runs so there are a number of guys who can go deep. Lourdes Gurriel Jr is hitting .291/.893 at home, followed by 22-year-old phenom Corbin Carroll (.271/.876), Ketel Marte (.280/.839), Christian Walker (.254/.804), Alek Thomas (.279/.787), and Emmanuel Rivera (.311/.716). They have 11 players with a home OPS of over .700 with 50 or more at-bats. Five of them are over .800.
The D-Backs may not have an Aaron Judge or Mike Trout, but they have a lot of guys who can hit. Even their catcher, Gabriel Moreno, is hitting .319 at home.
The D-Backs have the kind of offense the Guardians are trying to assemble; no 40-homer guys but 8-9 players who can all produce at an above-average level for their position. The kind of batting order where the pitcher never gets a breather.
In June the D-Backs are hitting .267/.794 and averaging 5.6 runs per game. Like the Guardians they are hitting better now that the chilly weather is mostly over.
Corbin Carroll, their 5’10”, 165-pound outfielder who is still technically a rookie, is hitting .367/1.283 in June. On the season he has 12 home runs in just 164 AB’s against RHP’s. He’s hitting .306/.977 and has the sixth highest wRC+ in baseball. Fangraphs raved about him in this column:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/corbin-carroll-is-really-doing-it/
Dominic Fletcher, a rookie outfielder listed at 5’6”, 185, is hitting .370/.979 against RHP’s so I expect to see him this series.
The Guardians will be starting McKenzie, Bieber, and Bibee in that order, so they will be tested against a deep and talented batting order that is killing it so far in June and hits better against RHP’s. The D-Backs are 4th in the majors in runs per game this month.
Fortunately, the D-Backs’ pitchers are not keeping up with their hitters. They rank 19th in home ERA at 4.43, 22nd in WHIP, and 22nd in walks per game. They don’t allow a lot of home runs (10th), but they allow baserunners. More recently they have not been good. Their June ERA is 4.96 against 4.33 for the first two months. Their WHIP in June is 1.52, ranking 27th. We could actually see quite a few runs this series. Neither team strikes out or walks much so there will be a lot of action with tons of balls in play.
The Diamondbacks might be a possible trade partner for the Guardians since they need starting pitching. The Guardians will not see their leading winner this series, Merrill Kelly (8-3, 3.04 ERA). Their other excellent starter, Zac Gallen (7-2, 3.09), goes tonight. After those two their starters are Ryne Nelson (3-4, 5.30), who we won’t see, Tommy Henry (3-1, 4.86), and Zach Davies (1-2, 5.46). Two other starters who got five and four starts have ERA’s over 8.00.
They appear to be desperate for starting pitching after Kelley and Gallen. They are in first place thanks to hitting, defense, and base running, but can they keep ahead of the Dodgers with just two good starters? According to powerrankingsguru.com they’ve played the 4th easiest schedule and have the 5th hardest remaining schedule, so they need at least one more decent starter and more likely two. How aggressive are they willing to be?
Would they trade 19-year-old centerfielder Druw Jones, the #2 pick in last year's draft, in a package for Bieber?
Henry and Davies will start Saturday and Sunday. Henry has allowed 10 runs in his last 9 innings. Davies, age 30, has ERA’s of 5.78, 4.09, and 5.46 over the last three years.
Zach Gallen goes against McKenzie tonight. Gallen is 7-2, 3.09. He’s struggled a bit in his last two starts, allowing 7 earned runs in 11 innings. The Tigers roughed him up for 10 hits and five runs in his last start (in Detroit). In his previous start he threw 110 pitches so he may have been a little fatigued against the Tigers.
Gallen has been somewhat vulnerable the third time through the batting order (.304/.796). He’s allowed only one home run in 47 innings at home so he’s almost impossible to take deep. Current Guardians are 4-for-28 against him. On top of that, Gallen has a home ERA this year of 0.96 (5.79 on the road). The numbers say it will be very tough to score on this guy in his home ballpark.
Triston McKenzie will make his third start after returning from injury. The Astros roughed him up for five runs in five innings in his last start. They jumped him for three runs in the first inning on two hits and a Jose Abreu three-run homer, so Triston needs to be ready from the first pitch.
We saw what happened in San Diego when the Guardians’ starters were not sharp in the first inning. The Padres scored eight runs in the first innings of that series. It seems like teams are now stacking their best hitters at the top of the lineup to get them more at-bats and to try and jump the opposing starter before he “settles in”. The Padres had Juan Soto batting 2nd. The Astros had Jose Altuve. The Red Sox had Yoshida. The Angels bat Mike Trout 2nd.
Quick digression: I don’t think Guardians’ starters have the luxury of using the first inning to “establish the fastball” and “find their rhythm”. The hitters are sitting on fastballs and are swinging early in the count. The starters need to be ready to mix in all their pitchers right off the bat or they might find themselves down 3-0 before they break a sweat. Look at how McKenzie, Bibee, and Allen got hammered in the first innings of their last starts.
The D-Backs are on a roll offensively and McKenzie can’t start the game throwing fastballs down the middle like he did against the Astros when 11 of his first 15 pitches were fastballs, mostly up, and three of them resulted in hits, including the three-run homer that was the difference in a 6-4 loss.
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