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The Guardians finish up June and head into July with a road series against the Cubs. Both teams have similar records but the Guardians are tied for the division lead while the Cubs are in fourth place, five games out. Both teams play in the weakest divisions in their respective leagues.
The Cubs are 37-42 but they have outscored their opponents by 23 runs, making them the only team in their division who has not been outscored. The Cubs should be well over .500 but obviously they have not done a good job of converting runs into wins. The Pirates, for example, are -32 yet are one-half game ahead of the Cubs even though the Cubs have been 55 runs better.
The Cubs are 20-20 at home. They have lost four straight, but before that they won 11 of 13. The good news for the Guardians is that the Cubs are 24-31 against right-handed starters and 13-11 against lefties. They hit lefties better than righties. With Logan Allen being sent down the Guardians will start three right-handers this series.
Statistically the Cubs check in as a slightly above average team in all three areas, ranking 12th in runs per game, 13th in team ERA, and 12th in defense per Fangraphs, which has them 12th in WAR despite being five games under .500.
Offensively the Cubs rank 9th in on-base percentage and slugging percentage, 16th in batting average, and 17th in home runs per game. They walk a lot, ranking 3rd in walk percentage. Guardians’ pitchers will have to attack the zone because these guys will take a walk. Fangraphs ranks them 7th in base running and 11th in team speed, so you don’t want them on base. I think limiting walks will be a key to this series.
Wrigley Field is a neutral park except when it comes to hitting doubles, where it is 10% harder than average.
Defensively the Cubs are 21st in zone rating but 12th in defense, suggesting they don’t get to as many balls as most teams but they handle the ones they get to very well.
Offensively the Cubs don’t have a superstar, but they have a lot of guys who can handle the bat. It looks like Chris Morel (.277/.934) and Cody Bellinger (.261/.775) platoon in center field. We’ll probably see more of Bellinger, who hits left-handed. LF Ian Happ hits .256/.791. Other than Morel the Cubs don’t have an every day player with an OPS over .800, but they have eight guys in the 700’s, including Yan Gomes (.266/.726), so there aren’t any holes in their batting order.
Nick Madrigal has reached safely in each of his last 13 games since June 11, hitting .361 with four doubles, six runs scored, five RBI and a .452 on-base percentage. - Hoynes
In June the Cubs rank 16th in scoring at 4.6 runs per game. The Guardians rank 11th at 4.8.
Cal Quantrill goes tonight against LHP Justin Steele. The 27-year-old lefty is having an All-Star season with a record of 8-2 and an ERA of 2.62. He’s not a big strikeout guy (70 in 79 innings), but he keeps batters from getting on base (1.06 WHIP). Morel was on fire in his first eight starts (1.82 ERA), but has tailed off a bit in his last five starts (3.94). He’s much better from the windup (.190/.540 with nobody on) than from the stretch (.289/.732).
Quantrill will be making his first start in a month after getting shut down with a sore shoulder. He’s having a rough season (2-4, 5.61). He said his shoulder has been bothering him since the middle of last season (but that didn’t stop him from pitching in the WBC this spring). After a cortisone shot he says he’s feeling great.
Tanner Bibee faces RHP Marcus Stroman (9-5, 2.47) tomorrow and Aaron Civale goes against Jameson Taillon (2-6, 6.90) on Sunday. Stroman and Steele are easily the Cubs’ two best starters and, unfortunately, we see both of them in this series.
The Cubs are 37-42 but they have outscored their opponents by 23 runs, making them the only team in their division who has not been outscored. The Cubs should be well over .500 but obviously they have not done a good job of converting runs into wins. The Pirates, for example, are -32 yet are one-half game ahead of the Cubs even though the Cubs have been 55 runs better.
The Cubs are 20-20 at home. They have lost four straight, but before that they won 11 of 13. The good news for the Guardians is that the Cubs are 24-31 against right-handed starters and 13-11 against lefties. They hit lefties better than righties. With Logan Allen being sent down the Guardians will start three right-handers this series.
Statistically the Cubs check in as a slightly above average team in all three areas, ranking 12th in runs per game, 13th in team ERA, and 12th in defense per Fangraphs, which has them 12th in WAR despite being five games under .500.
Offensively the Cubs rank 9th in on-base percentage and slugging percentage, 16th in batting average, and 17th in home runs per game. They walk a lot, ranking 3rd in walk percentage. Guardians’ pitchers will have to attack the zone because these guys will take a walk. Fangraphs ranks them 7th in base running and 11th in team speed, so you don’t want them on base. I think limiting walks will be a key to this series.
Wrigley Field is a neutral park except when it comes to hitting doubles, where it is 10% harder than average.
Defensively the Cubs are 21st in zone rating but 12th in defense, suggesting they don’t get to as many balls as most teams but they handle the ones they get to very well.
Offensively the Cubs don’t have a superstar, but they have a lot of guys who can handle the bat. It looks like Chris Morel (.277/.934) and Cody Bellinger (.261/.775) platoon in center field. We’ll probably see more of Bellinger, who hits left-handed. LF Ian Happ hits .256/.791. Other than Morel the Cubs don’t have an every day player with an OPS over .800, but they have eight guys in the 700’s, including Yan Gomes (.266/.726), so there aren’t any holes in their batting order.
Nick Madrigal has reached safely in each of his last 13 games since June 11, hitting .361 with four doubles, six runs scored, five RBI and a .452 on-base percentage. - Hoynes
In June the Cubs rank 16th in scoring at 4.6 runs per game. The Guardians rank 11th at 4.8.
Cal Quantrill goes tonight against LHP Justin Steele. The 27-year-old lefty is having an All-Star season with a record of 8-2 and an ERA of 2.62. He’s not a big strikeout guy (70 in 79 innings), but he keeps batters from getting on base (1.06 WHIP). Morel was on fire in his first eight starts (1.82 ERA), but has tailed off a bit in his last five starts (3.94). He’s much better from the windup (.190/.540 with nobody on) than from the stretch (.289/.732).
Quantrill will be making his first start in a month after getting shut down with a sore shoulder. He’s having a rough season (2-4, 5.61). He said his shoulder has been bothering him since the middle of last season (but that didn’t stop him from pitching in the WBC this spring). After a cortisone shot he says he’s feeling great.
Tanner Bibee faces RHP Marcus Stroman (9-5, 2.47) tomorrow and Aaron Civale goes against Jameson Taillon (2-6, 6.90) on Sunday. Stroman and Steele are easily the Cubs’ two best starters and, unfortunately, we see both of them in this series.
