- Joined
- Oct 3, 2019
- Messages
- 10,125
- Reaction score
- 29,002
- Points
- 135
The Guardians return home to take on the mighty Atlanta Braves, owners of baseball’s best record at 56-27. The Braves are 26-12 on the road and 43-22 against right-handed starters. The Braves are on a serious roll having won 16 of their last 17, with the only loss by an 11-10 score to the surging Cincinnati Reds. The Braves have been nothing short of unbeatable over the last three weeks. But they've been just OK against the American League with a 16-13 record.
A week ago they swept the Twins by a combined score of 13-3. Their next series they beat the 48-37 Marlins by a combined score of 29-7. The last Power Poll I saw had them ranked 1st. They just had seven players named to the All-Star team, including three starters.
The Braves strong suit is offense as they are 2nd in runs per game only to Texas. The Braves are the highest scoring team in the majors on the road at 5.6 runs per game. They rank 1st in slugging, ISO, and home runs per game. In addition to being the game’s premier power hitting team they are 2nd in on-base percentage. They are an offensive juggernaut no matter where they play. Expect fireworks, and I don’t mean the exploding kind.
The Braves can also pitch a little, ranking 5th in team ERA and 2nd in strikeouts per 9 innings. They allow some base runners, ranking 14th in WHIP and 16th in walks, but they get out of trouble with runners on. Their bullpen ranks 4th in both ERA and WAR.
Defensively, Fangraphs has them 16th overall and (their only weakness) 29th in UZR. Those big boys hit lots of balls over fences but they don’t cover much ground. This may be a glimmer of hope for a team like the Guardians who put a lot of balls in play. The Braves’ staff ranks 2nd in strikeouts while the Guardians strike out at the 2nd lowest rate, so it will be strength against strength. The more balls the Guardians can put in play against a slow defensive team the more likely they are to be competitive.
Their superstar is 25-year-old RF Ronald Alcuna Jr, who sports a line of .333/1.011 with 21 HR’s, 54 RBI’s, and 37 stolen bases. This guy is Roberto Clemente on steroids (for you older fans). Alcuna is hitting .352/1.079 on the road, so he’s not padding his stats at home. The Braves bat him leadoff, probably in order to get their best hitter the most at-bats, which to me is a no-brainer. Maybe the Guardians should consider that - it seems to be working out for Atlanta.
Leading off an inning Alcuna is hitting .382 with an OBP of .458. Even without the home runs and stolen bases he would be one hell of a leadoff hitter.
The Braves traded prospects for a couple of Oakland A’s that are kicking butt. C Sean Murphy is hitting .295/.949 while 1B Matt Olson is at .249/.928 with 28 home runs at the halfway point. Maybe the Guardians should try trading prospects for guys like this, except they probably couldn’t pay either of them. They are both on the All-Star team.
The Braves have five more players with OPS’ in the .800-.826 range and several more in the high .700’s. Just a bear of a batting order from top to bottom. Their backup catcher, Travis d’Arnaud, is hitting .277/.824. Must be nice.
So Gavin Williams, Shane Bieber, and Cal Quantrill are going to be seriously challenged in this series.
If the Braves have one weakness (other than range on defense) it’s starting pitching depth. Max Fried, who went 14-7 each of the last two seasons, is out. The Braves have three starters who have each made 16 starts, and one of them is 39-year-old Charlie Morton. The rest of their starts have been split among ten pitchers, so they’ve been auditioning guys en masse for the 4 and 5 spots. Once Fried is back they should be fine, but I can’t help but wonder if they would be interested in Shane Bieber, especially if he pitches well on Tuesday.
The opener should be really interesting as it involves a matchup of two very talented young right-handers. Bryce Elder, a 24-year-old, goes for the Braves. Elder is 6-1 with a 2.44 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP and was just named to the All-Star team. With RISP batters are hitting .136 and with RISP and two out they're 3-for-29.
Between Steele and Stroman of the Cubs and Elder tonight the Guardians will face three All-Star starters in four days. The Guardians managed to get some runs off Stroman, a right-hander with almost an identical ERA, so we’ll see if they can get anything off Elder.
One glimmer of hope is that Elder has only 79 K’s in 96 innings - he allows a lot balls in play, especially on the ground (153/120 ground/fly ratio). The Guardians strike out less than all but one team, so they should have no trouble putting the ball in play against Elder. With the Braves ranking 29th in range factor, there’s a chance for balls to fall in.
Gavin Williams will make his third start. The first two were against the A’s and Royals - the two worst teams in the majors by far. Tonight he’s going from worst to first so he better be ready to rock. He’s coming off a 7-inning, 1-hit, 0 run performance against the Royals, but we’re not in Kansas anymore, Toto. These are the Braves so it will be really interesting to see if a) Williams is intimidated and walks a lot of hitters, and b) how well that fastball plays, and his breaking stuff as well. This could be his "Welcome to the NFL" moment. Or he could announce his presence with authority.
Striking out Alcuna to start the game would be a great start and boost his confidence. Williams had better be ready to go from the first hitter.
The second and third games will give the Guardians a chance to take advantage of the Braves lack of depth in their rotation. On Tuesday Bieber goes against LHP Kolby Allard, a 25-year-old with a career mark of 9-23, 5.95. Allard pitched just 21 big league innings last year (although there was an oblique injury involved) and 4.1 innings this year, so he has been bouncing between AAA and the majors the last couple of years, but mostly AAA.
Wednesday Quantrill will try to bounce back against Michael Soroka, 1-1, 6.89. Soroka is a 25-year-old right-hander who was 13-4 in 29 starts with a 2.68 ERA in his breakout season as a 21/22-year-old in 2019. He finished 6th in the Cy Young balloting that year. But he pitched just 13 major league innings over the next three seasons after tearing his Achilles and then re-tearing it. In three starts this year his ERA is 6.89.
So the Guardians will face an All-Star tonight but the next two games will be against a minor league fill-in and a guy trying to make a comeback after three years off.
This could actually be a rather high scoring series for a change. It will be interesting to see how Williams and Bieber hold up against this offensive machine that is averaging close to six runs per game on the road. I figure Cal will get lit up on Wednesday.
A week ago they swept the Twins by a combined score of 13-3. Their next series they beat the 48-37 Marlins by a combined score of 29-7. The last Power Poll I saw had them ranked 1st. They just had seven players named to the All-Star team, including three starters.
The Braves strong suit is offense as they are 2nd in runs per game only to Texas. The Braves are the highest scoring team in the majors on the road at 5.6 runs per game. They rank 1st in slugging, ISO, and home runs per game. In addition to being the game’s premier power hitting team they are 2nd in on-base percentage. They are an offensive juggernaut no matter where they play. Expect fireworks, and I don’t mean the exploding kind.
The Braves can also pitch a little, ranking 5th in team ERA and 2nd in strikeouts per 9 innings. They allow some base runners, ranking 14th in WHIP and 16th in walks, but they get out of trouble with runners on. Their bullpen ranks 4th in both ERA and WAR.
Defensively, Fangraphs has them 16th overall and (their only weakness) 29th in UZR. Those big boys hit lots of balls over fences but they don’t cover much ground. This may be a glimmer of hope for a team like the Guardians who put a lot of balls in play. The Braves’ staff ranks 2nd in strikeouts while the Guardians strike out at the 2nd lowest rate, so it will be strength against strength. The more balls the Guardians can put in play against a slow defensive team the more likely they are to be competitive.
Their superstar is 25-year-old RF Ronald Alcuna Jr, who sports a line of .333/1.011 with 21 HR’s, 54 RBI’s, and 37 stolen bases. This guy is Roberto Clemente on steroids (for you older fans). Alcuna is hitting .352/1.079 on the road, so he’s not padding his stats at home. The Braves bat him leadoff, probably in order to get their best hitter the most at-bats, which to me is a no-brainer. Maybe the Guardians should consider that - it seems to be working out for Atlanta.
Leading off an inning Alcuna is hitting .382 with an OBP of .458. Even without the home runs and stolen bases he would be one hell of a leadoff hitter.
The Braves traded prospects for a couple of Oakland A’s that are kicking butt. C Sean Murphy is hitting .295/.949 while 1B Matt Olson is at .249/.928 with 28 home runs at the halfway point. Maybe the Guardians should try trading prospects for guys like this, except they probably couldn’t pay either of them. They are both on the All-Star team.
The Braves have five more players with OPS’ in the .800-.826 range and several more in the high .700’s. Just a bear of a batting order from top to bottom. Their backup catcher, Travis d’Arnaud, is hitting .277/.824. Must be nice.
So Gavin Williams, Shane Bieber, and Cal Quantrill are going to be seriously challenged in this series.
If the Braves have one weakness (other than range on defense) it’s starting pitching depth. Max Fried, who went 14-7 each of the last two seasons, is out. The Braves have three starters who have each made 16 starts, and one of them is 39-year-old Charlie Morton. The rest of their starts have been split among ten pitchers, so they’ve been auditioning guys en masse for the 4 and 5 spots. Once Fried is back they should be fine, but I can’t help but wonder if they would be interested in Shane Bieber, especially if he pitches well on Tuesday.
The opener should be really interesting as it involves a matchup of two very talented young right-handers. Bryce Elder, a 24-year-old, goes for the Braves. Elder is 6-1 with a 2.44 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP and was just named to the All-Star team. With RISP batters are hitting .136 and with RISP and two out they're 3-for-29.
Between Steele and Stroman of the Cubs and Elder tonight the Guardians will face three All-Star starters in four days. The Guardians managed to get some runs off Stroman, a right-hander with almost an identical ERA, so we’ll see if they can get anything off Elder.
One glimmer of hope is that Elder has only 79 K’s in 96 innings - he allows a lot balls in play, especially on the ground (153/120 ground/fly ratio). The Guardians strike out less than all but one team, so they should have no trouble putting the ball in play against Elder. With the Braves ranking 29th in range factor, there’s a chance for balls to fall in.
Gavin Williams will make his third start. The first two were against the A’s and Royals - the two worst teams in the majors by far. Tonight he’s going from worst to first so he better be ready to rock. He’s coming off a 7-inning, 1-hit, 0 run performance against the Royals, but we’re not in Kansas anymore, Toto. These are the Braves so it will be really interesting to see if a) Williams is intimidated and walks a lot of hitters, and b) how well that fastball plays, and his breaking stuff as well. This could be his "Welcome to the NFL" moment. Or he could announce his presence with authority.
Striking out Alcuna to start the game would be a great start and boost his confidence. Williams had better be ready to go from the first hitter.
The second and third games will give the Guardians a chance to take advantage of the Braves lack of depth in their rotation. On Tuesday Bieber goes against LHP Kolby Allard, a 25-year-old with a career mark of 9-23, 5.95. Allard pitched just 21 big league innings last year (although there was an oblique injury involved) and 4.1 innings this year, so he has been bouncing between AAA and the majors the last couple of years, but mostly AAA.
Wednesday Quantrill will try to bounce back against Michael Soroka, 1-1, 6.89. Soroka is a 25-year-old right-hander who was 13-4 in 29 starts with a 2.68 ERA in his breakout season as a 21/22-year-old in 2019. He finished 6th in the Cy Young balloting that year. But he pitched just 13 major league innings over the next three seasons after tearing his Achilles and then re-tearing it. In three starts this year his ERA is 6.89.
So the Guardians will face an All-Star tonight but the next two games will be against a minor league fill-in and a guy trying to make a comeback after three years off.
This could actually be a rather high scoring series for a change. It will be interesting to see how Williams and Bieber hold up against this offensive machine that is averaging close to six runs per game on the road. I figure Cal will get lit up on Wednesday.
