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After starting the second half 2-4 on the road (with three blown saves) the Guardians return home to take on the Phillies for the first time this season. The Guardians’ bullpen has an ERA of 8.71 in the six games since the break.
The defending National League Champions are 52-44 and trailing Atlanta by 10.5 games in the East. They are tied for third in the wild card race, so every game counts. The Phillies have a run differential of only +7 after 96 games so they have been an average team that has squeezed out a few extra wins. They are an average road team (26-25).
The Guardians run differential is 0 (400 runs scored, 400 allowed) and they are two games under .500, so they have not been nearly as good as the Phillies at turning runs into wins.
This has been a tale of two seasons for the Phillies. They stumbled out to a 25-32 start as of June 2 but have since gone 27-12 - the second best record in baseball over that period. They appear to have found their stride. Too bad we couldn’t have played them in May, but we sucked then, too.
The Guardians were also 25-32 on June 2 and have since gone 22-17 - a definite improvement, but not as good as the Phillies.
From the start of the season until June 2 the Phillies ranked 23rd in scoring. Since June 3 the Phillies rank 8th. The offense has really picked up. But the bigger difference has been pitching. Since June 3 the Phillies lead the majors in pitching WAR at 6.9. They are also first in ERA (3.15) during that period. Their pitching has simply been lights out the last 39 games and easily the best in baseball. Their starters rank 2nd in WAR over that time period and their bullpen is 7th.
The Phillies don’t have a superstar but they have a number of players who can hit. CF Brandon Marsh has a line of .284/.821, Bryce Harper is at .300/.816, Nick Castellanos .290/.810, and Byron Scott .305/.773. Kyle Schwarber is hitting just .190 but has 26 home runs. They're like a team of Michael Brantleys (.298/.794 career line).
The Phillies don’t walk much (24th) and they strike out a lot (24th), but they are 7th in batting average. They’re free swingers but they get a lot of hits. Statcast ranks them 28th in out-of-zone wing percentage, just a tick ahead of the undisciplined Guardians, who are 29th. We should see a lot of bad swings from both teams this weekend. Too bad Bieber is out; he feasts on aggressive teams like this.
Gavin Williams gets the ball tonight for his sixth major league start. Williams is 1-2 with a 3.94 ERA. The just turned 23-year-old has been impressive, but he is having trouble against left-handed hitters, who have an OPS of .840 versus .545 for right-handers. It’s a small sample, of course, but bears watching.
Also notable is Williams’ .187 BAA with nobody on base which jumps to .323 with runners on. He needs to get better at pitching from the stretch. So far, however, he has found a way to turn it on with two out and RISP as opposing batters are 0-for-9 in those situations. It could be that with runners on second or third (or both) Williams doesn’t have to worry about a steal of second and he can focus totally on the hitter.
Williams needs to bear down more against #9 hitters, who are 5-for-9 off him. Opponents’ cleanup hitters are 1-for-14 so I wonder if he just needs to take the #9 hitters more seriously.
Williams will be opposed by lefty Ranger Suarez, a 27-year-old who was converted to a starter last year. Suarez is 2-4 with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Last year he was 10-7, 3.65. The ERA’s prove he is a good lefty - bad news for the Guardians.
Breaking it down, batters are hitting .307 off Suarez with nobody on base, but once he gets into the stretch he really competes. His BAA with runners on is .194 and with RISP it’s .208. With a 1.35 WHIP he’s not too hard to get on against, but it’s tough to get the runners in.
Suarez has struggled a bit in his three July starts, allowing 21 hits and 10 walks in 17 innings and a 5.82 ERA. He also has some trouble against right-handed hitters (.276/.770). The Guardians have been swinging the bats well lately (2nd in the majors in batting average since June 3) so I could see them getting some hits off Suarez, but whether they can drive in the runners is the question.
The Guardians are 16-20 against lefty starters this year and Suarez is a good one, although not so much in his last three starts. I would definitely start Fry and Freeman against this guy.
Both teams started 25-32 and have gotten better, but the Phillies even more so and they appear to have no significant injuries at the moment while the Guardians are missing Bieber, McKenzie, and Quantrill. They don’t have a starter for Sunday yet. Tanner Bibee pitches Saturday against RHP Zack Wheeler (7-4, 4.04). RHP Aaron Nola (9-6, 4.27) goes Sunday. At least we get right-handers for the last two games.
The defending National League Champions are 52-44 and trailing Atlanta by 10.5 games in the East. They are tied for third in the wild card race, so every game counts. The Phillies have a run differential of only +7 after 96 games so they have been an average team that has squeezed out a few extra wins. They are an average road team (26-25).
The Guardians run differential is 0 (400 runs scored, 400 allowed) and they are two games under .500, so they have not been nearly as good as the Phillies at turning runs into wins.
This has been a tale of two seasons for the Phillies. They stumbled out to a 25-32 start as of June 2 but have since gone 27-12 - the second best record in baseball over that period. They appear to have found their stride. Too bad we couldn’t have played them in May, but we sucked then, too.
The Guardians were also 25-32 on June 2 and have since gone 22-17 - a definite improvement, but not as good as the Phillies.
From the start of the season until June 2 the Phillies ranked 23rd in scoring. Since June 3 the Phillies rank 8th. The offense has really picked up. But the bigger difference has been pitching. Since June 3 the Phillies lead the majors in pitching WAR at 6.9. They are also first in ERA (3.15) during that period. Their pitching has simply been lights out the last 39 games and easily the best in baseball. Their starters rank 2nd in WAR over that time period and their bullpen is 7th.
The Phillies don’t have a superstar but they have a number of players who can hit. CF Brandon Marsh has a line of .284/.821, Bryce Harper is at .300/.816, Nick Castellanos .290/.810, and Byron Scott .305/.773. Kyle Schwarber is hitting just .190 but has 26 home runs. They're like a team of Michael Brantleys (.298/.794 career line).
The Phillies don’t walk much (24th) and they strike out a lot (24th), but they are 7th in batting average. They’re free swingers but they get a lot of hits. Statcast ranks them 28th in out-of-zone wing percentage, just a tick ahead of the undisciplined Guardians, who are 29th. We should see a lot of bad swings from both teams this weekend. Too bad Bieber is out; he feasts on aggressive teams like this.
Gavin Williams gets the ball tonight for his sixth major league start. Williams is 1-2 with a 3.94 ERA. The just turned 23-year-old has been impressive, but he is having trouble against left-handed hitters, who have an OPS of .840 versus .545 for right-handers. It’s a small sample, of course, but bears watching.
Also notable is Williams’ .187 BAA with nobody on base which jumps to .323 with runners on. He needs to get better at pitching from the stretch. So far, however, he has found a way to turn it on with two out and RISP as opposing batters are 0-for-9 in those situations. It could be that with runners on second or third (or both) Williams doesn’t have to worry about a steal of second and he can focus totally on the hitter.
Williams needs to bear down more against #9 hitters, who are 5-for-9 off him. Opponents’ cleanup hitters are 1-for-14 so I wonder if he just needs to take the #9 hitters more seriously.
Williams will be opposed by lefty Ranger Suarez, a 27-year-old who was converted to a starter last year. Suarez is 2-4 with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Last year he was 10-7, 3.65. The ERA’s prove he is a good lefty - bad news for the Guardians.
Breaking it down, batters are hitting .307 off Suarez with nobody on base, but once he gets into the stretch he really competes. His BAA with runners on is .194 and with RISP it’s .208. With a 1.35 WHIP he’s not too hard to get on against, but it’s tough to get the runners in.
Suarez has struggled a bit in his three July starts, allowing 21 hits and 10 walks in 17 innings and a 5.82 ERA. He also has some trouble against right-handed hitters (.276/.770). The Guardians have been swinging the bats well lately (2nd in the majors in batting average since June 3) so I could see them getting some hits off Suarez, but whether they can drive in the runners is the question.
The Guardians are 16-20 against lefty starters this year and Suarez is a good one, although not so much in his last three starts. I would definitely start Fry and Freeman against this guy.
Both teams started 25-32 and have gotten better, but the Phillies even more so and they appear to have no significant injuries at the moment while the Guardians are missing Bieber, McKenzie, and Quantrill. They don’t have a starter for Sunday yet. Tanner Bibee pitches Saturday against RHP Zack Wheeler (7-4, 4.04). RHP Aaron Nola (9-6, 4.27) goes Sunday. At least we get right-handers for the last two games.
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