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2023 Season | Series #51 | Reds @ Guardians | Sep. 26-27, 2023

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Wham with the Right Hand

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Seems like a waste to put out a series preview when it's only two games and the Guardians have been eliminated, but here goes. The Reds are 80-77 and 2.5 games out of the last wild card spot with five to play. They are hanging by a thread and need to sweep the Guardians and get some help to have any chance.

The Reds arrived at the All-Star break eight games over .500 but have been five games under in the second half. With the wild card there for the taking they have lost four of five, including two of three at home to the Pirates. They really don't deserve to be in the playoffs, but they should have a winning season and they've had a ton of rookies get major playing time this year.

The Athletic gave the Reds an "A" and ranked them #1 in the majors for the impact of their rookie class this season.

Notable rookies: Matt McLain, SS/2B (3.6 WAR); Andrew Abbott, LHP (2.8 WAR); Spencer Steer, 1B/3B/LF (2.5 WAR); Brandon Williamson, LHP (1.3 WAR); Elly De La Cruz, SS/3B (0.8 WAR); Noelvi Marte, 3B (0.2 WAR); Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B/3B/OF (-0.2 WAR)

Bolstered by their talented bunch of rookies, the Reds went from losing 100 games last year to being in the middle of a pennant race this year. This rookie class ushered in an entirely new infield for the Reds, led by McLain, their best all-around player, and De La Cruz, who has the upside and athleticism to be a superstar when fully developed. Abbott and Williamson, both left-handed starters, should be solid middle-of-the-rotation arms for years to come, while Marte has serious power and is clearly the Reds’ long-term answer at third base. This rookie class completely changed the franchise’s outlook for the short term and long term.


They didn't mention Will Benson, who is almost a rookie. The Reds faltered down the stretch but overall made a big leap forward this year. The Athletic has the Guardians' rookie class ranked 3rd behind Cincy and Baltimore.

The Reds are five games under .500 at home and eight games over on the road. For the season they've been outscored by 48 runs while the Guardians have been outscored by 23. These teams split a two-game series in Cincinnati in August with the Reds losing to Allen and beating Syndergaard.

The Reds are 10th in scoring on the road at 4.8 runs per game for the season, but in the second half they are hitting .234/.715 and averaging 4.3 runs per game overall. They average 1.0 home runs per game on the road, which ranks 25th. They're somewhat like the Guardians with regard to lack of power; on the road they rank 10th in on-base percentage, 18th in slugging percentage, and 25th in home runs. They lead the majors in stolen base attempts and steals, so they are more of a small ball team that gets on base and runs.

The pitching staff ranks 20th in ERA on the road and 25th in WHIP.

Hunter Greene, a 24-year-old right-hander, starts tonight. Greene is 4-6, 4.24 ERA on the season, but has come on very strong recently, allowing just four earned runs in his last four starts covering 24 innings. Opponents are hitting .132 against him in those last four starts. The third time through the order opponents are hitting .267/.957 against him, so you may have to be patient and try to get a couple of runs in the 5th or 6th inning.

Lucas Giolito goes for the Guardians. Gio has a 2.33 ERA in his last three starts so both starters tonight have been very good this month. Gio went six innings against the Reds five weeks ago when pitching for the Angels. He allowed one run and struck out nine. This could be a low scoring game.

On Wednesday Shane Bieber gives it another shot against LHP Andrew Abbott (8-5, 3.70).

Rookie SS Matt McLain is having a great season, hitting .290/.864. Will Benson is hitting .266/.851, but against lefties it's .154/.419. Benson is hitting .163 with RISP and .115 with RISP and two out which explains why he has just 30 RBI's in 271 at-bats. He's struck out 100 times in those 271 AB's for a 37% K rate. He is 15-for-17 in stolen bases and obviously has a lot of range in the outfield, but not being able to hit lefties, hit with runners in scoring position, and his high K rate will limit his value unless he improves in those areas.

Elly De La Cruz also hit the majors with a big splash, but like Abbott, it hasn't lasted. EDLC had an OPS of .881 in June, .686 in July, .663 in August, and .464 in September. In his last 30 games he's hitting .157. Have the pitchers found the holes in his swing or is it fatigue?

Spencer Steer, a rookie, is hitting .280/.813 with 22 homers and 83 RBI's. The Reds have some hot hitters in September; Noelvi Marte (.368), Nick Senzel (.361), TJ Friedl (.354), and Christion Encarnacion-Strand (.339).

Joey Votto, who just turned 40, is probably playing his last week of professional baseball. He's hitting .205 this season.

For Guardians' fans the main interest will be Bieber's performance, obviously.
 
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Must win series. Wait til next year I guess.
 
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i'll be relieved when we get a hit off greene tonight

de la cruz may or may not be tired - but he hasnt hit since mid-june
 
Seems like a waste to put out a series preview when it's only two games and the Guardians have been eliminated, but here goes. The Reds are 80-77 and 2.5 games out of the last wild card spot with five to play. They are hanging by a thread and need to sweep the Guardians and get some help to have any chance.

The Reds arrived at the All-Star break eight games over .500 but have been five games under in the second half. With the wild card there for the taking they have lost four of five, including two of three at home to the Pirates. They really don't deserve to be in the playoffs, but they should have a winning season and they've had a ton of rookies get major playing time this year.

The Athletic gave the Reds an "A" and ranked them #1 in the majors for the impact of their rookie class this season.

Notable rookies: Matt McLain, SS/2B (3.6 WAR); Andrew Abbott, LHP (2.8 WAR); Spencer Steer, 1B/3B/LF (2.5 WAR); Brandon Williamson, LHP (1.3 WAR); Elly De La Cruz, SS/3B (0.8 WAR); Noelvi Marte, 3B (0.2 WAR); Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B/3B/OF (-0.2 WAR)

Bolstered by their talented bunch of rookies, the Reds went from losing 100 games last year to being in the middle of a pennant race this year. This rookie class ushered in an entirely new infield for the Reds, led by McLain, their best all-around player, and De La Cruz, who has the upside and athleticism to be a superstar when fully developed. Abbott and Williamson, both left-handed starters, should be solid middle-of-the-rotation arms for years to come, while Marte has serious power and is clearly the Reds’ long-term answer at third base. This rookie class completely changed the franchise’s outlook for the short term and long term.


They didn't mention Will Benson, who is almost a rookie. The Reds faltered down the stretch but overall made a big leap forward this year. The Athletic has the Guardians' rookie class ranked 3rd behind Cincy and Baltimore.

The Reds are five games under .500 at home and eight games over on the road. For the season they've been outscored by 48 runs while the Guardians have been outscored by 23. These teams split a two-game series in Cincinnati in August with the Reds losing to Allen and beating Syndergaard.

The Reds are 10th in scoring on the road at 4.8 runs per game for the season, but in the second half they are hitting .234/.715 and averaging 4.3 runs per game overall. They average 1.0 home runs per game on the road, which ranks 25th. They're somewhat like the Guardians with regard to lack of power; on the road they rank 10th in on-base percentage, 18th in slugging percentage, and 25th in home runs. They lead the majors in stolen base attempts and steals, so they are more of a small ball team that gets on base and runs.

The pitching staff ranks 20th in ERA on the road and 25th in WHIP.

Hunter Greene, a 24-year-old right-hander, starts tonight. Greene is 4-6, 4.24 ERA on the season, but has come on very strong recently, allowing just four earned runs in his last four starts covering 24 innings. Opponents are hitting .132 against him in those last four starts. The third time through the order opponents are hitting .267/.957 against him, so you may have to be patient and try to get a couple of runs in the 5th or 6th inning.

Lucas Giolito goes for the Guardians. Gio has a 2.33 ERA in his last three starts so both starters tonight have been very good this month. Gio went six innings against the Reds five weeks ago when pitching for the Angels. He allowed one run and struck out nine. This could be a low scoring game.

On Wednesday Shane Bieber gives it another shot against LHP Andrew Abbott (8-5, 3.70).

Rookie SS Matt McLain is having a great season, hitting .290/.864. Will Benson is hitting .266/.851, but against lefties it's .154/.419. Benson is hitting .163 with RISP and .115 with RISP and two out which explains why he has just 30 RBI's in 271 at-bats. He's struck out 100 times in those 271 AB's for a 37% K rate. He is 15-for-17 in stolen bases and obviously has a lot of range in the outfield, but not being able to hit lefties, hit with runners in scoring position, and his high K rate will limit his value unless he improves in those areas.

Elly De La Cruz also hit the majors with a big splash, but like Abbott, it hasn't lasted. EDLC had an OPS of .881 in June, .686 in July, .663 in August, and .464 in September. In his last 30 games he's hitting .157. Have the pitchers found the holes in his swing or is it fatigue?

Spencer Steer, a rookie, is hitting .280/.813 with 22 homers and 83 RBI's. The Reds have some hot hitters in September; Noelvi Marte (.368), Nick Senzel (.361), TJ Friedl (.354), and Christion Encarnacion-Strand (.339).

Joey Votto, who just turned 40, is probably playing his last week of professional baseball. He's hitting .205 this season.

For Guardians' fans the main interest will be Bieber's performance, obviously.
Thanks for doing the previews all season. Interesting stuff, and lots of work. :celb (4):
 
Seems like a waste to put out a series preview when it's only two games and the Guardians have been eliminated, but here goes. The Reds are 80-77 and 2.5 games out of the last wild card spot with five to play. They are hanging by a thread and need to sweep the Guardians and get some help to have any chance.

The Reds arrived at the All-Star break eight games over .500 but have been five games under in the second half. With the wild card there for the taking they have lost four of five, including two of three at home to the Pirates. They really don't deserve to be in the playoffs, but they should have a winning season and they've had a ton of rookies get major playing time this year.

The Athletic gave the Reds an "A" and ranked them #1 in the majors for the impact of their rookie class this season.

Notable rookies: Matt McLain, SS/2B (3.6 WAR); Andrew Abbott, LHP (2.8 WAR); Spencer Steer, 1B/3B/LF (2.5 WAR); Brandon Williamson, LHP (1.3 WAR); Elly De La Cruz, SS/3B (0.8 WAR); Noelvi Marte, 3B (0.2 WAR); Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B/3B/OF (-0.2 WAR)

Bolstered by their talented bunch of rookies, the Reds went from losing 100 games last year to being in the middle of a pennant race this year. This rookie class ushered in an entirely new infield for the Reds, led by McLain, their best all-around player, and De La Cruz, who has the upside and athleticism to be a superstar when fully developed. Abbott and Williamson, both left-handed starters, should be solid middle-of-the-rotation arms for years to come, while Marte has serious power and is clearly the Reds’ long-term answer at third base. This rookie class completely changed the franchise’s outlook for the short term and long term.


They didn't mention Will Benson, who is almost a rookie. The Reds faltered down the stretch but overall made a big leap forward this year. The Athletic has the Guardians' rookie class ranked 3rd behind Cincy and Baltimore.

The Reds are five games under .500 at home and eight games over on the road. For the season they've been outscored by 48 runs while the Guardians have been outscored by 23. These teams split a two-game series in Cincinnati in August with the Reds losing to Allen and beating Syndergaard.

The Reds are 10th in scoring on the road at 4.8 runs per game for the season, but in the second half they are hitting .234/.715 and averaging 4.3 runs per game overall. They average 1.0 home runs per game on the road, which ranks 25th. They're somewhat like the Guardians with regard to lack of power; on the road they rank 10th in on-base percentage, 18th in slugging percentage, and 25th in home runs. They lead the majors in stolen base attempts and steals, so they are more of a small ball team that gets on base and runs.

The pitching staff ranks 20th in ERA on the road and 25th in WHIP.

Hunter Greene, a 24-year-old right-hander, starts tonight. Greene is 4-6, 4.24 ERA on the season, but has come on very strong recently, allowing just four earned runs in his last four starts covering 24 innings. Opponents are hitting .132 against him in those last four starts. The third time through the order opponents are hitting .267/.957 against him, so you may have to be patient and try to get a couple of runs in the 5th or 6th inning.

Lucas Giolito goes for the Guardians. Gio has a 2.33 ERA in his last three starts so both starters tonight have been very good this month. Gio went six innings against the Reds five weeks ago when pitching for the Angels. He allowed one run and struck out nine. This could be a low scoring game.

On Wednesday Shane Bieber gives it another shot against LHP Andrew Abbott (8-5, 3.70).

Rookie SS Matt McLain is having a great season, hitting .290/.864. Will Benson is hitting .266/.851, but against lefties it's .154/.419. Benson is hitting .163 with RISP and .115 with RISP and two out which explains why he has just 30 RBI's in 271 at-bats. He's struck out 100 times in those 271 AB's for a 37% K rate. He is 15-for-17 in stolen bases and obviously has a lot of range in the outfield, but not being able to hit lefties, hit with runners in scoring position, and his high K rate will limit his value unless he improves in those areas.

Elly De La Cruz also hit the majors with a big splash, but like Abbott, it hasn't lasted. EDLC had an OPS of .881 in June, .686 in July, .663 in August, and .464 in September. In his last 30 games he's hitting .157. Have the pitchers found the holes in his swing or is it fatigue?

Spencer Steer, a rookie, is hitting .280/.813 with 22 homers and 83 RBI's. The Reds have some hot hitters in September; Noelvi Marte (.368), Nick Senzel (.361), TJ Friedl (.354), and Christion Encarnacion-Strand (.339).

Joey Votto, who just turned 40, is probably playing his last week of professional baseball. He's hitting .205 this season.

For Guardians' fans the main interest will be Bieber's performance, obviously.

I knew Elly fell off, but I didn't realize that it was this bad. Yikes.
 
I knew Elly fell off, but I didn't realize that it was this bad. Yikes.

Cincy should give up on him.

High K rates in the minors and MLB, high swing and miss rates in the minors and MLB, meh stats on a bloated BABIP that won't last and is just a mirage, getting worse as he gets more PAs and reaches 400 total at the MLB level, bad numbers vs LHP, chasing pitches out of the zone at a high rate.

His profile just looks nice on Baseball Savant right now but doesn't work in reality.

tenor.gif
 
Well, you can laugh all you want, but his 2023 is a glimpse of what a full season of Arias looks like next year if he's still stalling.

Enjoy that 77 wRc+ and 1.1 fWAR from defense.

I guess that's an overall upgrade from 2023 Amed, but much worse than 2022 Amed.
 
Also don't know what about his Statcast page looks nice. It's the fucking Antarctic
 
A sweep of the Reds would make Cubs fans eternally grateful.. .

I say.. screw the cub fans.. win or lose..
 
Guardians on pace to hit the fewest team home runs since the 1942 Boston Braves, who were manned by a bunch of minor leagues who were too old to be drafted/sign up for the war.
 
Guardians on pace to hit the fewest team home runs since the 1942 Boston Braves, who were manned by a bunch of minor leagues who were too old to be drafted/sign up for the war.
Wow. I knew we were low on power but this is record setting. I wonder what the lowest Indian's/Guardians record is?

Missing Bo Naylor due to injuries really hurt us this year in power and in wins.
 

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