2024 Guardians Regular Season Thread

[Alabuckeye]

Not sold on his justification, but I have no issue with having us at #5. In fact, that's a bit of a shock.

I haven't looked The Athletic but I'd imagine they got us in the #12-15 range.

I don't mind writers having a take going into the season, and slowly adjusting to reality. I actually appreciate them standing by their take and not just ping-ponging teams based on their record because of well.. their record. Otherwise, why bother with a power ranking? Just look at the standings!

I don’t have a problem with the ranking, 5 is about as high as I’d expect at this point. It was more a lack of knowledge about our players and the conclusions he made based on flawed understanding that got me.

 

[bushwick_bill]

 

[33Y0]

 

[33Y0]

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Yeah, powerrankingsguru agrees that we have the 4th easiest remaining schedule. They also say we played the 9th easiest schedule so far, which doesn't make sense unless you assume the other Central teams all suck.

We've played 5 games against the Central with 47 to play, so maybe that's why our remaining schedule is so easy. They have the Twins and Royals right there with us with easy remaining schedules and the White Sox and Tigers have easier than average remaining schedules.

The Royals and Tigers have some good young talent. I don't think our schedule is as easy as these sites think. We haven't played Baltimore, Atlanta, or any of the best teams except the Yankees and Red Sox. The Red Sox are 12-7 against teams other than the Guardians and have the best ERA in baseball, so I'm including them as a strong team.

 

[Alabuckeye]

is there any bias built into these models or are they built on a “point in time“ premise of everyone’s record as of today?

i.e. are the Astros reflected as a 7-16 team or as a team predicted to win their division?

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Fangraphs has the Guardians ranked 6th behind the Braves, O's, Yankees, Dodgers, and Brewers. They have the Guardians playing the 4th easiest schedule so far, tied with the Royals. The Tigers have played the 3rd easiest. The Twins have played the 5th toughest, so don't write them off just yet.

I think 6th is pretty accurate, especially after they beat Boston 3-1 in Boston. The Red Sox are 12-7 against all their other opponents.

 

[33Y0]

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

is there any bias built into these models or are they built on a “point in time“ premise of everyone’s record as of today?

i.e. are the Astros reflected as a 7-16 team or as a team predicted to win their division?

Both. At this early point in the season they put a little more weight on how they ranked the rosters coming into the season and less on how hot teams are the first few weeks. As the season goes along it shifts more toward current performance.

 

[thestatman]

I think Jose is as much bad luck as anything. He really has some hard hit balls get caught. I have 99 problems, but Jose is not one of them.

Agreed. A foot here or a foot there and Jose is sitting 6 home runs right now. He's on pace for 135 RBI.

 

[thestatman]

Fangraphs has the Guardians ranked 6th behind the Braves, O's, Yankees, Dodgers, and Brewers. They have the Guardians playing the 4th easiest schedule so far, tied with the Royals. The Tigers have played the 3rd easiest. The Twins have played the 5th toughest, so don't write them off just yet.

I think 6th is pretty accurate, especially after they beat Boston 3-1 in Boston. The Red Sox are 12-7 against all their other opponents.

Still a concern that the starting pitching might implode. I hope Gavin comes back smoking.

 

[Lee]

Agreed. A foot here or a foot there and Jose is sitting 6 home runs right now. He's on pace for 135 RBI.

Its all about track record with him. He wont get better, but he is not at a decline age either. Almost 5k at bats, he is who he is, which is an all star every year and always top 5 or 10 for MVP. I mean he only has been a regular starter for now 9 years, OPS is always 800 and occasionally 900.

9th year as regular starter and still only 31? almost 5,000 at bats. No track record there? lol (not that anyone was doubting Jose to come back around, just funny as he has been the model of consistency.)

 

[33Y0]

Fangraphs updated projections:
Guardians 83-79
Twins 80-82
Royals 80-82
Tigers 80-82
White Sox 59-103

 

[thestatman]

Fangraphs updated projections:
Guardians 83-79
Twins 80-82
Royals 80-82
Tigers 80-82
White Sox 59-103

I would love to bet over 83 wins for the season.

 

[Benway]

A more positive spin:

Cleveland Guardians are off to a blazing start with MLB's best record under rookie manager

The Guardians rarely have started a season like this. With a series sweep over Oakland this weekend, Cleveland improved the best record in the majors to 16-6, the club's hottest start through 22 games since 1999.

apnews.com