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2024 Guardians Regular Season Thread
- Thread starter AZ_
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Pretty tough 9 game stretch here
Boston is a solid team and always plays us well. One random stat is that they are 10-3 on the road and just 3-7 at home.
Then we go to Atlanta and not much needs to be said about how good they are.
And then we have Houston whose pitching staff has been badly hurt by injuries and their record is awful. But still one of the more dangerous lineups in the league and always tough to play in Houston.
Will be a good test.
Boston is a solid team and always plays us well. One random stat is that they are 10-3 on the road and just 3-7 at home.
Then we go to Atlanta and not much needs to be said about how good they are.
And then we have Houston whose pitching staff has been badly hurt by injuries and their record is awful. But still one of the more dangerous lineups in the league and always tough to play in Houston.
Will be a good test.
bushwick_bill
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Dumb question but I’ve been pretty disconnected from baseball for a couple years:
Got the company tickets for the game tonight to take the family. With a forecast like tonight’s with certain rain all evening, how often do they make a postponement call ahead of game time and how early does it usually get announced?
Not trying to rush out of work and haul a 1.5 year old downtown for nothing if I can help it.
Got the company tickets for the game tonight to take the family. With a forecast like tonight’s with certain rain all evening, how often do they make a postponement call ahead of game time and how early does it usually get announced?
Not trying to rush out of work and haul a 1.5 year old downtown for nothing if I can help it.
Anglefan
Getting a lot of that weak stuff outta here!
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Yes this does happen when the forecast shows no hope. It should be at least 2-3 hours before first pitchDumb question but I’ve been pretty disconnected from baseball for a couple years:
Got the company tickets for the game tonight to take the family. With a forecast like tonight’s with certain rain all evening, how often do they make a postponement call ahead of game time and how early does it usually get announced?
Not trying to rush out of work and haul a 1.5 year old downtown for nothing if I can help it.
Lee
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I am not saying 1948 was a good year for Boudreau, but he did go on to win MVP that year.
LL3
Take comfort in your friends...
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I will continue to not fret much about the strength of schedule at this point of the season...rosters for all squads are likely to change a good bit between now and late July, the Guardians included. It would seem some tougher series await us in the next week or so, but win or lose I am not sure they will tell us too much about what this team eventually becomes and how competitive they might be as we head into late summer/fall.
That said, all this winning great fun...hoping for more!
That said, all this winning great fun...hoping for more!
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Fangraphs has a stat called "Win Probability Added", which is defined as how much a batter increases his team's chances of winning in a given plate appearance. It accounts for the fact that some hits are more important than others.
WPA is the ultimate context dependent statistic. You get credit based on how much your action contributes to the odds of winning, meaning a home run in a 1-1 game in the 9th is dramatically more valuable than one in a 10-1 game in the 9th. For this reason, WPA is terrific at telling the story of the game and the players who delivered in big situations. When did the winning team pull away? Who had the decisive hit? These are questions WPA can answer.
It doesn’t tell you how well a player performed, it tells you how important their performance was.
As a team the Guardians lead the majors in WPA at 2.90. Only 10 of the 30 teams have a positive number. This tells me that the hits the Guardians have been getting were more likely to come in situations that contribute significantly to winning than any other team.
Another stat is "Clutch", defined as "How much better a player does in high leverage situations than...in a neutral environment". The Guardians lead the majors in that category, which makes sense if they lead in WPA. The two stats appear to be directly related.
In other words, the Guardians have been the best hitting team in baseball in the most important situations. Since the Guardians have played a lot of close games and are hitting .327 with RISP, this is not surprising.
Five of the six Guardians' losses have been by 1 or 2 runs, but only 6 of their 16 wins have been by 1-2 runs.
I don't think a .327 BA with RISP is sustainable and I don't expect the Guardians to continue to rank 3rd in runs per game. But we're getting a lot more production from the 7-9 spots in the order this year and we have five players who are hitting below their norms.
The last thing I noticed was that the Guardians rank last in hard hit percentage, which is kind of shocking since they are 3rd in runs per game. How can that be? They also are 27th in walk percentage, so they are not hitting the ball hard nor are they drawing walks. They're about average in on-base percentage and home runs per game.
The key seems to be that they hit a lot of line drives, ranking 2nd in line drive percentage. They rank 29th in ground ball percentage so they are doing a great job of getting the ball off the ground. Even softly hit line drives tend to drop in. Steven Kwan is the king of the soft or medium line drive base hit.
They're 6th lowest in strikout percentage, so they are putting a lot of balls in play. They rank 2nd in medium hit balls and when you combine that with ranking 2nd in line drives and low strikeout and ground ball percentages you end up with a LOT of soft and medium hit line drives.
I think they will continue to hit a lot of line drives and their BABIP ranking of 9th is sustainable for that reason. They also rank 4th in speed and 7th in infield hit percentage. Their speed helps them beat out infield hits and run out of double plays as well as score from second base on singles, especially softly hit singles.
WPA is the ultimate context dependent statistic. You get credit based on how much your action contributes to the odds of winning, meaning a home run in a 1-1 game in the 9th is dramatically more valuable than one in a 10-1 game in the 9th. For this reason, WPA is terrific at telling the story of the game and the players who delivered in big situations. When did the winning team pull away? Who had the decisive hit? These are questions WPA can answer.
It doesn’t tell you how well a player performed, it tells you how important their performance was.
As a team the Guardians lead the majors in WPA at 2.90. Only 10 of the 30 teams have a positive number. This tells me that the hits the Guardians have been getting were more likely to come in situations that contribute significantly to winning than any other team.
Another stat is "Clutch", defined as "How much better a player does in high leverage situations than...in a neutral environment". The Guardians lead the majors in that category, which makes sense if they lead in WPA. The two stats appear to be directly related.
In other words, the Guardians have been the best hitting team in baseball in the most important situations. Since the Guardians have played a lot of close games and are hitting .327 with RISP, this is not surprising.
Five of the six Guardians' losses have been by 1 or 2 runs, but only 6 of their 16 wins have been by 1-2 runs.
I don't think a .327 BA with RISP is sustainable and I don't expect the Guardians to continue to rank 3rd in runs per game. But we're getting a lot more production from the 7-9 spots in the order this year and we have five players who are hitting below their norms.
The last thing I noticed was that the Guardians rank last in hard hit percentage, which is kind of shocking since they are 3rd in runs per game. How can that be? They also are 27th in walk percentage, so they are not hitting the ball hard nor are they drawing walks. They're about average in on-base percentage and home runs per game.
The key seems to be that they hit a lot of line drives, ranking 2nd in line drive percentage. They rank 29th in ground ball percentage so they are doing a great job of getting the ball off the ground. Even softly hit line drives tend to drop in. Steven Kwan is the king of the soft or medium line drive base hit.
They're 6th lowest in strikout percentage, so they are putting a lot of balls in play. They rank 2nd in medium hit balls and when you combine that with ranking 2nd in line drives and low strikeout and ground ball percentages you end up with a LOT of soft and medium hit line drives.
I think they will continue to hit a lot of line drives and their BABIP ranking of 9th is sustainable for that reason. They also rank 4th in speed and 7th in infield hit percentage. Their speed helps them beat out infield hits and run out of double plays as well as score from second base on singles, especially softly hit singles.
Dumb question but I’ve been pretty disconnected from baseball for a couple years:
Got the company tickets for the game tonight to take the family. With a forecast like tonight’s with certain rain all evening, how often do they make a postponement call ahead of game time and how early does it usually get announced?
Not trying to rush out of work and haul a 1.5 year old downtown for nothing if I can help it.
There is no fixed time they call things. Sometimes if it was heavy rain, it would be called by now.
But, you have 2-3 things going against you
1) Light rain means that field can be maintained and play through it (but not great for 1.5 year old)
2) They don't want it to be a double header tomorrow with 42 degree weather w wind and dropping ......
3) With it being Boston only in this one time and needing to get to Friday game, they rather play tonight than Thursday DH or make up (yet as they are going to Boston and we are going to Atlanta ... they can do a traditional DH w 1 pm start)
Even if they start game at 9 pm or 10 .... they rather do it tonight than wait (again not great for 1.5 year old ... sorry). And, they won't tell you how they are trying to get a game in ... just say a delay around 5:30 when tarp stays on. If it is a company box, just sit back and enjoy the free food and beer. If outside, nothing is more miserable than a wet 1.5 year old with wife trying to keep him/her calm.
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For those wondering about Kwan and walks .... (why down from 8% career to 3% this year)
The primary reason is that he is getting more pitches in the zone (5% more - 52.2% to 57.2%) and thus the # of times he gets to 2-0 is less and even less that the odds of a walk after getting to 2-0. is significantly less. Other stats also hurt as he is swinging 2% more than usual (but more in zone). And, the more pitches in the zone, the more contact he makes (as he makes contact 95% of time he swings vs 82% mlb average) whether foul or fair. Yet, if he can't get to 2-0 (hitter counts), the more of the balls he puts in play.
For example,
Last year he got to 2-0 about 1/6th (16%) of the time and walked or HBP - 22% of those times.
This year, he only got to 2-0 12% of time but only has walked 11% of those times (but again a young season with 12 times at 2-0 going into tonight)....
So this alone (4% of times he walked per PA last year to 1% this year for just this 2-0 scenario alone).....
The primary reason is that he is getting more pitches in the zone (5% more - 52.2% to 57.2%) and thus the # of times he gets to 2-0 is less and even less that the odds of a walk after getting to 2-0. is significantly less. Other stats also hurt as he is swinging 2% more than usual (but more in zone). And, the more pitches in the zone, the more contact he makes (as he makes contact 95% of time he swings vs 82% mlb average) whether foul or fair. Yet, if he can't get to 2-0 (hitter counts), the more of the balls he puts in play.
For example,
Last year he got to 2-0 about 1/6th (16%) of the time and walked or HBP - 22% of those times.
This year, he only got to 2-0 12% of time but only has walked 11% of those times (but again a young season with 12 times at 2-0 going into tonight)....
So this alone (4% of times he walked per PA last year to 1% this year for just this 2-0 scenario alone).....
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They count the same in April and in September. We will be in this thing all year now even with the eventual rough patches
bushwick_bill
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I said fuck it so we went, had a great time in the Home Run Club, the kid ran around the Kids Clubhouse, and we got a dub.
Go Guardos!
Go Guardos!