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The Guardians return home after a successful 4-3 road trip to New York and Boston to face the Oakland A’s, who they beat 3 games to 1 in the opening series on the west coast. The Guardians hammered the A’s by a cumulative score of 29-11.
Since that series the A’s have regained some respectability with a record of 7-8, including a 4-2 mark on the road. The A’s are 1-6 against Boston and Cleveland, who rank 1st and 4th in ERA. The A’s are very weak offensively and they don’t do well against strong pitching.
The A’s have been two teams this year. When Paul Blackburn starts they are 4-0. When anybody else starts they are 4-11. The Guardians catch a break this series because Blackburn pitched Wednesday and will not face them. Blackburn has a 1.08 ERA and shut out the Guardians for seven innings in the only game the A’s won in their opening series.
The Guardians will also miss JP Sears, who has the second best ERA in their rotation at 4.35. The Guardians will face the three worst ERA’s in Boyle, Wood, and Stripling, who are all between 5.32 and 8.10. The chances of this happening are 1 in 9, if I’m not mistaken. Lucky us.
These will be the final games of the season between these teams. Too bad. The weather report looks good with little chance of rain.
The A’s are awful at the dish, ranking 29th in runs per game at 2.95. Four of their wins have been by one run. They rank from 24th to 29th in every significant offensive category. They’re 29th in on-base percentage, 25th in ISO, 25th in extra-base hit percentage, etc. They do nothing well offensively. Their team batting average is .209 and OBP is .276.
Tyler Nevin is their best hitter so far at .303/.712, but 9 of his 10 hits are singles. He has 3 RBIs in 12 games. Shea Langeliers leads in home runs with 4 and RBIs with 9.
J.D. Davis was their best hitter against us in Oakland, going 5-for-13 with two home runs. He is out and will miss this series. Lucky us.
The A’s are much better in the pitching department, ranking 9th in the majors in ERA at 3.72. However, if you remove the numbers of Blackburn and Sears, who will both miss this series, the team ERA is 4.59, which would rank 24th.
The A’s rank 23rd in WHIP but 9th in ERA which shows they are doing a great job of stranding runners. In fact, they lead the majors in stranding runners in scoring position at 4.4 per game. They also lead the majors in opponents’ home run percentage, although that’s partly because they’ve played 13 of 19 games at home. Their ballpark has been the 3rd hardest to homer in over the last three years and it’s even tougher in March/April.
A better number is the fact that the A’s rank 27th in opponents’ extra base hit percentage, and that’s including Blackburn’s numbers.
In summary, the A’s allow a lot of baserunners but have been very good at stranding them and not allowing home runs, so their ERA is pretty good.
In the first series the Guardians hit .290/.832 as a team. Fry, Gimenez, Josh Naylor, Kwan, and Rocchio all had an OPS over .930. The Guardians scored 29 runs in 4 games despite hitting only two home runs. Their OBP was .376 and they stole 8 bases. Their batting average with RISP was .357 in the games they won. They were 1-for-7 in the game Blackburn started.
The Guardians have hit one home run every 53 at-bats on the road and one every 20 at-bats at home, so maybe we’ll see a few dingers this weekend.
McKenzie, Allen, and Bibee will go for the Guardians, in that order.
Triston is off to a rocky start with a 6.23 ERA. His three starts have been very bad, very good, and very bad, so hopefully he’s due for a very good start. He has not faced the A’s this year. His biggest problem has been issuing 12 walks in 13 innings. He’s allowed more walks than hits.
In his last start against the Yankees, Triston walked the first two batters of the game and they both scored. The next two innings he didn’t walk anybody and allowed no runs. In the 4th he once again walked the first two hitters and they both scored. Four of the six runs he allowed were on base due to walks.
The A’s swing and miss at a higher percentage than any team in baseball. They are 10th highest in chase rate. This looks like the perfect team for McKenzie to pitch against and help him get back on track, but he needs to start throwing more strikes and be ready to go in the first inning.
A report came out by Jason Lloyd and Zack Meisel that Triston tore a ligament in his right elbow last June. He opted for rest and rehab rather than surgery and he says he has not felt any pain. But his command and his fastball velocity are down, raising the question of whether the ligament is OK and whether he can get back to pitching effectively without getting surgery. This start might go a long way to answering that question since the A’s are an awful team at the plate. If he can’t dominate this team…
There are three factors that can signal an issue with the UCL: a loss in velocity, loss of location and discomfort.
We’ve definitely seen a loss in velocity and location. Maybe he’s just rusty and the velo and location will come back with more work. Or maybe this is as good as he can pitch without surgery. We need to find out soon.
Joe Boyle goes for the A’s. Boyle is a 24-year-old right-hander with six career starts; three coming last year. He’s 6’7”, 240 pounds. This season he was blown up in his first start but in his next two he was great, allowing one earned run in 10 innings. He has not yet gone beyond 5 innings and 87 pitches. He has not faced any Guardian hitters.
Since that series the A’s have regained some respectability with a record of 7-8, including a 4-2 mark on the road. The A’s are 1-6 against Boston and Cleveland, who rank 1st and 4th in ERA. The A’s are very weak offensively and they don’t do well against strong pitching.
The A’s have been two teams this year. When Paul Blackburn starts they are 4-0. When anybody else starts they are 4-11. The Guardians catch a break this series because Blackburn pitched Wednesday and will not face them. Blackburn has a 1.08 ERA and shut out the Guardians for seven innings in the only game the A’s won in their opening series.
The Guardians will also miss JP Sears, who has the second best ERA in their rotation at 4.35. The Guardians will face the three worst ERA’s in Boyle, Wood, and Stripling, who are all between 5.32 and 8.10. The chances of this happening are 1 in 9, if I’m not mistaken. Lucky us.
These will be the final games of the season between these teams. Too bad. The weather report looks good with little chance of rain.
The A’s are awful at the dish, ranking 29th in runs per game at 2.95. Four of their wins have been by one run. They rank from 24th to 29th in every significant offensive category. They’re 29th in on-base percentage, 25th in ISO, 25th in extra-base hit percentage, etc. They do nothing well offensively. Their team batting average is .209 and OBP is .276.
Tyler Nevin is their best hitter so far at .303/.712, but 9 of his 10 hits are singles. He has 3 RBIs in 12 games. Shea Langeliers leads in home runs with 4 and RBIs with 9.
J.D. Davis was their best hitter against us in Oakland, going 5-for-13 with two home runs. He is out and will miss this series. Lucky us.
The A’s are much better in the pitching department, ranking 9th in the majors in ERA at 3.72. However, if you remove the numbers of Blackburn and Sears, who will both miss this series, the team ERA is 4.59, which would rank 24th.
The A’s rank 23rd in WHIP but 9th in ERA which shows they are doing a great job of stranding runners. In fact, they lead the majors in stranding runners in scoring position at 4.4 per game. They also lead the majors in opponents’ home run percentage, although that’s partly because they’ve played 13 of 19 games at home. Their ballpark has been the 3rd hardest to homer in over the last three years and it’s even tougher in March/April.
A better number is the fact that the A’s rank 27th in opponents’ extra base hit percentage, and that’s including Blackburn’s numbers.
In summary, the A’s allow a lot of baserunners but have been very good at stranding them and not allowing home runs, so their ERA is pretty good.
In the first series the Guardians hit .290/.832 as a team. Fry, Gimenez, Josh Naylor, Kwan, and Rocchio all had an OPS over .930. The Guardians scored 29 runs in 4 games despite hitting only two home runs. Their OBP was .376 and they stole 8 bases. Their batting average with RISP was .357 in the games they won. They were 1-for-7 in the game Blackburn started.
The Guardians have hit one home run every 53 at-bats on the road and one every 20 at-bats at home, so maybe we’ll see a few dingers this weekend.
McKenzie, Allen, and Bibee will go for the Guardians, in that order.
Triston is off to a rocky start with a 6.23 ERA. His three starts have been very bad, very good, and very bad, so hopefully he’s due for a very good start. He has not faced the A’s this year. His biggest problem has been issuing 12 walks in 13 innings. He’s allowed more walks than hits.
In his last start against the Yankees, Triston walked the first two batters of the game and they both scored. The next two innings he didn’t walk anybody and allowed no runs. In the 4th he once again walked the first two hitters and they both scored. Four of the six runs he allowed were on base due to walks.
The A’s swing and miss at a higher percentage than any team in baseball. They are 10th highest in chase rate. This looks like the perfect team for McKenzie to pitch against and help him get back on track, but he needs to start throwing more strikes and be ready to go in the first inning.
A report came out by Jason Lloyd and Zack Meisel that Triston tore a ligament in his right elbow last June. He opted for rest and rehab rather than surgery and he says he has not felt any pain. But his command and his fastball velocity are down, raising the question of whether the ligament is OK and whether he can get back to pitching effectively without getting surgery. This start might go a long way to answering that question since the A’s are an awful team at the plate. If he can’t dominate this team…
There are three factors that can signal an issue with the UCL: a loss in velocity, loss of location and discomfort.
We’ve definitely seen a loss in velocity and location. Maybe he’s just rusty and the velo and location will come back with more work. Or maybe this is as good as he can pitch without surgery. We need to find out soon.
Joe Boyle goes for the A’s. Boyle is a 24-year-old right-hander with six career starts; three coming last year. He’s 6’7”, 240 pounds. This season he was blown up in his first start but in his next two he was great, allowing one earned run in 10 innings. He has not yet gone beyond 5 innings and 87 pitches. He has not faced any Guardian hitters.
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