Game 3 preview:
The Red Sox and Guardians wrap up their season series with a matinee so we can all watch the Cavaliers tonight and maybe check in on the NFL Draft even though the Browns don’t have a pick until tomorrow.
It also gives the Guardians a chance to fly to Atlanta after the game and get in at a decent hour.
The Red Sox rudely ended the Guardians’ five-game winning streak with an 8-0 win last night. It looks like some of their bats are finally starting to wake up.
Triston McKenzie will make his fifth start for the Guardians. Triston is 2-2 with a 5.00 ERA. Triston has been a yo-yo in terms of performance. In his first and third starts he went 7.1 innings allowing 9 earned runs. In his second and fourth starts he went 10.1 innings allowing one run. So it appears he is due for a bad start today.
In his last start he went 5 innings giving up 3 hits and one run to the A’s, walking only three. In his first three starts he walked 12 in 13 innings. Against the A’s his command looked a lot better.
Walks have been most of his problem as opponents are hitting .206 against him. In his three starts at the Prog his ERA is 3.68 with a BAA of .189.
Current Red Sox are 2-for-14 against McKenzie, with the only damage being a solo home run by Refsnyder. Triston has not faced Devers, Wong, or Abreu. That should be to his advantage. I think part of Cookie’s problem yesterday was he was facing the same team for the second time in five days and they were more prepared for what he throws.
Connor Wong went 4-for-4 last night with two more home runs. He now has four in five games this year against the Guardians. Lifetime he is 15-for-32 against them. You know how they just wave the batter to first on intentional walks? They should just wave Wong around the bases to deprive him of the satisfaction of watching his home runs fly over the wall. Wong is now hitting .370 on the season.
Wilyer Abreu also had four hits and is 13-for-24 in his last six games, including five doubles and two home runs. He is on fire, to say the least. McKenzie needs to throw him fastballs up. The Bally guys were amazed that the Guardians kept throwing him low breaking stuff because that is what he feasts on. I think Cookie was just afraid to throw his (cough, cough) fastball high in the zone to anybody. Can’t say I blame him.
Rafael Devers is back after dealing with a knee issue and went 3-for-4 last night with a double and a home run. He had 33 homers and 100 RBI’s last year. He's had better years than that.
So McKenzie is really going to be challenged by Wong, Abreu, and Devers, not to mention Tyler O’Neill who is hitting .298/1.095. Those four are going to be very tough, and they might put in Refsnyder, who is 7-for-16 this year.
Today is going to be a big test for Tristan.
The Red Sox are going with a bullpen day with the announcement that their scheduled starter, Brayan Bello, is going on IR. Bello in five starts has a 3.04 ERA. Normally this would be good news for the Guardians, but I’ve found they often lose on bullpen days. The other manager can match up his relievers against who is due up for the Guardians that inning and constantly get favorable matchups.
First out of the blocks today is Chase Anderson, a 36-year-old right-hander with 5 career wins and a 4.33 ERA. So far this year he has a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings. His longest outing has been three innings. He pitched an inning against the Guardians in Boston and gave up 3 hits and 2 runs. I'm sure we'll also see their lefty, Bernardino, at some point.
Andres Gimenez is 4-for-21 against the Sox this year and 6 for his last 36 at-bats. He is looking very bad right now and is chasing a ton of pitchers. I would drop him in the order and maybe bat Fry second again like they did the other day. Fry has an insane OBP of .457.
I would also consider giving Andres a day off and getting Arias’ bat into the lineup. In his last eight games Arias is hitting .387 with five RBI’s. Rocchio is hitting .186 in April so he’s another candidate to take a seat.
The Guardians have three games on the road this weekend against possibly the best team in baseball, so a win today would at least assure them of doing no worse than 2-4 in these two series.