Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

[MD13]

A lot of generalities thrown out like "Aaron Rodgers has bad games too"....which is more of a half truth to me in the context of Baker.

Baker Mayfield under Stefanski (year 3 + as starter, 22 game sample):
7 QBR games above pro bowl average
7 QBR games above league average to pro bowl
8 QBR games under league average

Aaron Rodgers (year 3 + as starter, 22 game sample):
14 QBR games above pro bowl average
3 QBR games above league average to pro bowl
5 QBR games under league average

That is the more alarming thing to me. Baker is in an absolute IDEAL situation both system and personnel wise and he just does not play at a high level often enough IMO. More than 1/3 of the time, he is playing below league average, including 2 of his last 4 games this season. He's only reached a "pro bowl" QBR level 1 time in his last 7 games.

There are just a lot of trend lines for him that aren't great and there seems to be a good amount of our fanbase that thinks he's fine, which is strange to me. I'm not here to say get rid of him now but that seems like a very realistic conversation at years end, relative to where we stand today. We are at a 22 game sample size, one where we have gone 15-7 (.680) and we might be something like a 19 to 20 win team over that stretch if we just have better QB play. The pieces are there to win a super bowl and our QB is holding us back at this point IMO. He has a chance to play his way out of that but if nothing changes, I don't understand how you don't explore something at years end. Not going for a hot take here, there is just a lot of bad data starting to simmer on him, in a year that seems more make or break to me.

Where I stand is, when he's on a hot streak he's absolutely good enough to not just win with but even drag us to some big wins here and there. The problem is that it seems he needs everything around him to be great to hit those highs (if protection isn't perfect then he starts to panic) and even then, he has way too many lows.

I think the front office is always aggressive in situations like this, and I could see them absolutely moving on from Baker for a good deal while trading up to draft a rookie high. It really is up to Baker, this season there are no excuses for him not to play at a top level.

 

[Los216]

An injury to his non throwing shoulder is not an acceptable excuse for his play. So he was praised for popping his shoulder back in and coming back and being tough but now the injury is limiting him?

Throw away all of the stats sheets and advanced stats for just a minute. When you watch Baker Mayfield play what do you see?

 

[Los216]

Where I stand is, when he's on a hot streak he's absolutely good enough to not just win with but even drag us to some big wins here and there. The problem is that it seems he needs everything around him to be great to hit those highs (if protection isn't perfect then he starts to panic) and even then, he has way too many lows.

I think the front office is always aggressive in situations like this, and I could see them absolutely moving on from Baker for a good deal while trading up to draft a rookie high. It really is up to Baker, this season there are no excuses for him not to play at a top level.

Sounds like a frontrunner............

I don't know about locking him up long term right now. At this point I'm willing to ride out the season and let him play on the tag next year and see where we're at.

But if we get to the point where we're tagging him at the end of the season then that means that he's probably not the long term guy anyway.

 

[chrisrich91]

Throw away all of the stats sheets and advanced stats for just a minute. When you watch Baker Mayfield play what do you see?

Depends on the game.

When I watched Baker Mayfield play against the Chiefs in week 1 he looked incredible. MVP potential.

When I watched Baker Mayfield play against the Vikings in week 4 he looked atrocious. Bench potential.

Herein lies the dilemma. Very inconsistent play with a multitude of potential reasons.

 

[Los216]

I know I'm going in on Baker this morning but if Case Keenum plays yesterday instead of Baker we easily score 30 points. Odell has 150+ yards and 3 TD's. The game isn't close

 

[Los216]

Herein lies the dilemma. Very inconsistent play with a multitude of potential reasons.

We say this too much for my liking.

 

[Vee-Rex]

A lot of generalities thrown out like "Aaron Rodgers has bad games too"....which is more of a half truth to me in the context of Baker.

Baker Mayfield under Stefanski (year 3 + as starter 22 game sample):
7 QBR games above pro bowl average
7 QBR games above league average to pro bowl
8 QBR games under league average

Aaron Rodgers (year 3 + as starter 22 game sample):
14 QBR games above pro bowl average
3 QBR games above league average to pro bowl
5 QBR games under league average

That is the more alarming thing to me. Baker is in an absolute IDEAL situation both system and personnel wise and he just does not play at a high level often enough IMO. More than 1/3 of the time, he is playing below league average, including 2 of his last 4 games this season. He's only reached a "pro bowl" QBR level 1 time in his last 7 games.

There are just a lot of trend lines for him that aren't great and there seems to be a good amount of our fanbase that thinks he's fine, which is strange to me. I'm not here to say get rid of him now but that seems like a very realistic conversation at years end, relative to where we stand today. We are at a 22 game sample size, one where we have gone 15-7 (.680) and we might be something like a 19 to 20 win team over that stretch if we just have better QB play. The pieces are there to win a super bowl and our QB is holding us back at this point IMO. He has a chance to play his way out of that but if nothing changes, I don't understand how you don't explore something at years end. Not going for a hot take here, there is just a lot of bad data starting to simmer on him, in a year that seems more make or break to me.

For me... I don't have lofty expectations for Baker. He's never gonna be Aaron Rodgers. He'll likely never be a top 5 QB in the league. He CAN be a top 10 QB but only if he's more consistent. I view him in the 12-14'ish range in a league with a ton of good QB talent, though he can perform top 10 pretty often himself.

Do I wish he could be better and more consistent? Absolutely. But there are ramifications for swinging for a new QB every time you discover your guy isn't Aaron Rodgers. And I can bring up some serious warts for just about any QB not named Rodgers/Mahomes. You don't always have to strike a 21 to win. I'm cool with my 17 when I know it's enough to win. If people wanna hit on a 17 then that's on them. There isn't a single team in this league I don't think we can't beat, and if we get games 1-3 Baker with games 3 and 4 defense when it matters, I believe we'll win it all.

 

[Malacogary]

I know I'm going in on Baker this morning but if Case Keenum plays yesterday instead of Baker we easily score 30 points. Odell has 150+ yards and 3 TD's. The game isn't close

This is sustainable for like, one week. End of story.

 

[chrisrich91]

We say this too much for my liking.

Well, yeah. No one likes inconsistent play or excuses.

The good news is the lows were much lower on Baker at points last season and he turned it around in a big way. I anticipate that things will look much brighter going forward and this will be a blip (albeit a very ugly one).

But I think this is good perspective for everyone: fans, Browns organization, and Baker himself. The inconsistency and realization for all parties that he's probably not a put-the-team-on-his-back type elite/generational QB should and will play into contract negotiations.

Still, at the end of the day I'm good with having a Baker Mayfield on my team at the right price tag. Not everyone in the league gets to have a generational QB at the helm, and you don't necessarily need one to win Super Bowls.

 

[Los216]

This is sustainable for like, one week. End of story.

And? That's why Case Keenum is the backup. If Baker isn't healthy enough then go to Keenum.

Unless Baker's injury is not the issue............

 

[Malacogary]

Los is extremely vocal about Mayfield in a down week, yet completely silent whenever he has a good game (and he had a lot of good games in the second half of last season). As I said above that is an approach to a topic which is lacking in perspective.

 

[Vee-Rex]

I know I'm going in on Baker this morning but if Case Keenum plays yesterday instead of Baker we easily score 30 points. Odell has 150+ yards and 3 TD's. The game isn't close

Just curious... if you could push the restart button and play the game over with Case Keenum starting, would you do it? Assume everything else (such as defense, special teams, running game, etc...) remains equal and the only difference is the QBs.

 

[Los216]

Just curious... if you could push the restart button and play the game over with Case Keenum starting, would you do it? Assume everything else (such as defense, special teams, running game, etc...) remains equal and the only difference is the QBs.

Considering the opponent and the location yes I would've started Case Keenum is baker's shoulder was limiting him. That game was tailor made for Case Keenum to step in if Baker was too hurt to play. Case Keenum knows the offense and he played in Minnesota so I don't think that game yesterday would've rattled him at all.

 

[Los216]

Los is extremely vocal about Mayfield in a down week, yet completely silent whenever he has a good game (and he had a lot of good games in the second half of last season). As I said above that is an approach to a topic which is lacking in perspective.

I give baker his props in his good games. What you're starting to realize is that Baker has too many games where we're questioning him afterwards. A lot of people here do not want to admit it but Baker is not who they want him to be yet and I think now people are starting to question if he's ever going to hit that peak that a lot of us want him to reach.

 

[Vee-Rex]

Considering the opponent and the location yes I would've started Case Keenum is baker's shoulder was limiting him. That game was tailor made for Case Keenum to step in if Baker was too hurt to play. Case Keenum knows the offense and he played in Minnesota so I don't think that game yesterday would've rattled him at all.

No, I mean RIGHT NOW, would you restart the game? Everything else is equal - offense, defense, special teams, injuries, etc... the only difference is that Case Keenum is starting instead of Baker.

If you're sure Keenum would deliver big and give Baker a week's rest, then you would, right?