Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

[DJTJ]

I did the digging for @Vee-Rex

FDB has Mayfield’s updated 4th Q passing as (38 ATT):

55% passer and a 75.9 passer rating

Last 2 minutes (37 ATT):

48.6% passer and a 67.2 passer rating

3rd Down (34 ATT):

50.0% passer and a 54.0 passer rating

It appears his only remotely league average passer rating situatial late or behind the chain stats is his 91.7 passer rating on 3rd and 3 or less (9 attempts).

Whats FDB?

 

[Vee-Rex]

I did the digging for @Vee-Rex

FDB has Mayfield’s updated 4th Q passing as (38 ATT):

55% passer and a 75.9 passer rating

Last 2 minutes (37 ATT):

48.6% passer and a 67.2 passer rating

3rd Down (34 ATT):

50.0% passer and a 54.0 passer rating

As I said before, passer rating doesn't measure the actual impact of the QB. It's an efficiency stat, not an ~effective~ stat.

I'd be willing to bet almost all QBs suffer a dip in their stats in the last 2 minutes of a game when they're forced to throw against defenses that are waiting specifically for that.

Lastly, are these career stats? I wonder how these numbers look under Stefanski. Care to post links?

 

[I'mWithDan]

Mayfield Leading (56 Attempts):

119.4 Passer Rating

Mayfield Trailing (48 Attempts)

81.7 Passer Rating

Mayfield Tied (41 Attempts):

84.0 Passer Rating

 

[Los216]

I love NGS. The charts are great.

You should see Kyler and Mahomes for week five.

Four total completed passes 20 yards plus. Both consistently threw short. Both entirely played within their scheme.

We’re acting like these 20 yard throws happen ALL the time for every playoff team. They just… don’t. And two of Kylers completed downfield throws were INSANE catches with extremely low probability of completion.

We're talking about Baker Mayfield right now. Not Pat Mahomes or Kyler Murray.

 

[CBBI]

The PI call lead to what potentially? 12 points and an additional 100 yards of offense? Couldn’t and shouldn’t the game have ended there?

Then the D is absolutely gassed, the offense has a chance to ice the game with the missed PAT and they go 3 and out and immediately give SD a short field.

Some of the deflecting on the defense here seems more convenient relative to the unique circumstances with which SD got the chance to score additional points.

But the crux of this discussion is who is going to give some specific instances where Baker has made big throws under Stefanski? In games that have mattered, when has Baker taken over a game and made plays when he was forced to throw? What game winning drive has be engineered over his last 6 or so close games? A single one?

Let’s have an actual discussion here instead of talking about other QB’s and defenses. What has Mayfield done, specific examples, that lead you to believe the group of us who think he’s a limited play from ahead QB is wrong?

This season he simply hasn't done it.

Mayfield by quarter in 2021
1st Q: 78.4%, 110.2 rating
2nd Q: 60.4%, 87.7 rating
3rd Q: 88.2%, 133.1 rating
4th Q: 55.3%, 75.9 rating

Mayfield by down in 2021
1st down: 43-55 for 594 yards, 78.2%, 10.9 YPA, 104.3 rating
2nd down: 35-52 for 409 yards, 67.3%, 7.9 YPA, 116.6 rating
3rd down: 17-34 for 184 yards, 50.0%, 5.4 YPA, 54.0 rating

He did come through last year at Cincinnati and at home on MNF against Baltimore in the clutch with touchdown drives while trailing, but it just hasn't really happened this year.

 

[Los216]

Baker has always been one of the top QBs in CAY/PA and consistently challenges the secondary with deeper throws. Under Stefanski his CPoE has been top 10.

If you're gonna bash Baker, you might want to avoid talking about yards after catch.

Yesterday he did not challenge the defense. It was largely short stuff.

 

[Malacogary]

Time may tell that trying to outduel Justin Herbert was a fool's errand.

 

[Malacogary]

Yesterday he did not challenge the defense. It was largely short stuff.

Which generated 500+ yards.

 

[Los216]

Which generated 500+ yards.

More than half of that was YAC. That's not challenging the defense no matter how you slice it.

 

[Vee-Rex]

Yesterday he did not challenge the defense. It was largely short stuff.

For every missed read you can show me, I can show you a pass he challenged the defense.

For people nitpicking a missed read here and there, I can link to a 1st down pass.

 

[Vee-Rex]

More than half of that was YAC. That's not challenging the defense no matter how you slice it.

So if you challenge the defense with a 20 yard pass and he breaks a tackle and gets 40 yards after the catch, that's not challenging the defense?

 

[I'mWithDan]

As I said before, passer rating doesn't measure the actual impact of the QB. It's an efficiency stat, not an ~effective~ stat.

I'd be willing to bet almost all QBs suffer a dip in their stats in the last 2 minutes of a game when they're forced to throw against defenses that are waiting specifically for that.

Lastly, are these career stats? I wonder how these numbers look under Stefanski. Care to post links?

His numbers this year are worse than last.

2020

Leading: 114.6

Trailing: 90.3

Tied: 69.3

He threw 73% of his TD’s with a lead last season.

In 2021, he has thrown all his TD passes while leading.

Certainly, QB stats trend downward in obvious passing situations but I posted these to illustrate how downright bad Baker is in those situations.

Most QB’s perform more like league average to slightly plus league average passers in those splits (2 min, 4th quarter, etc). Baker performs like Charlie Frye.

 

[Los216]

So if you challenge the defense with a 20 yard pass and he breaks a tackle and gets 40 yards after the catch, that's not challenging the defense?

4 of his 23 completions traveled more than 10 yards in the air. That's challenging a defense?

That's dink and dunk man. If this were any other QB performance you'd say it was dink and dunk. Is that not what this was?

 

[Los216]

Time may tell that trying to outduel Justin Herbert was a fool's errand.

Did Baker really try to outduel Justin Herbert though?

 

[Deep Pockets]

More than half of that was YAC. That's not challenging the defense no matter how you slice it.

Isn't that the entire philosophy of the offense... get the playmakers the ball in space... every once in a while a shot downfield

Is he wrong for executing?