Coronavirus - Official Notifications Etc. PM Stannis with Official Updates for Posting

[The Oi]

I thought I knew them all too, even the medical ones if I heard them.

Tintinnabulation, sphygmomanometer, occipital. I knew those.

But this...

 

[Zeus69]

Ha! Sorry, I get excited.

The way I teach it to students is to imagine if you flip one coin 100 times or you have 100 people flip a coin one time. You should get an ergodic situation. The results should be the same! But if you take this into something like gambling, where the results are different, then the situation is non-ergodic. In a non-ergodic situation, over time, the individual does not get the same average as the group.

The grand majority of human systems are non-ergodic. If I lose all your money taking a bet that most people profit off of, you, in no way, are comforted.

In this case, the ICL study treats new infections as a function of the fraction of currently infected people and developed immunity. That's a problem because it means infection rate remains stable, even after benefits of social isolation that they do not consider (contact tracing, hospitals having more beds due to controlled rate of infection, the possibility of treatments, mobilization of the military to build hospital infrastructure, etc.).

Dude, you rock.

 

[JDailey23]

2nd Positive test came on Feb 29th. If we went by worst case scenario and the amount of positive tests doubled daily, we’d be over a million today.
As of right now, 1:12pm we have just over 7k total.
First positive case was Jan 19th and everything I’ve seen, he has recovered.

 

[Jordan]

Dude, you rock.

I don’t know a ton about epidemiology... but I do about statistics. And it seems like most epidemiologists don’t trust the study, something that confirmed my doubts about the statistical reliability of such large numbers.

This is not to say that this won’t be bad. It will and it will take a lot of weeks, maybe months before we really will be able to estimate the impact. But that goes both ways - good and bad.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Ha! Sorry, I get excited.

The way I teach it to students is to imagine if you flip one coin 100 times or you have 100 people flip a coin one time. You should get an ergodic situation. The results should be the same! But if you take this into something like gambling, where the results are different, then the situation is non-ergodic. In a non-ergodic situation, over time, the individual does not get the same average as the group.

The grand majority of human systems are non-ergodic. If I lose all your money taking a bet that most people profit off of, you, in no way, are comforted.

In this case, the ICL study treats new infections as a function of the fraction of currently infected people and developed immunity. That's a problem because it means infection rate remains stable, even after benefits of social isolation that they do not consider (contact tracing, hospitals having more beds due to controlled rate of infection, the possibility of treatments, mobilization of the military to build hospital infrastructure, etc.).

Showoff.

 

[JDailey23]

2nd Positive test came on Feb 29th. If we went by worst case scenario and the amount of positive tests doubled daily, we’d be over a million today.
As of right now, 1:12pm we have just over 7k total.
First positive case was Jan 19th and everything I’ve seen, he has recovered.

As we stand, after 12 days of worst case it would be over 8k.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

That's the kind of thing that may even stick after all of this is over. There are some arguments against it -- namely that it might make lead to a lowering of standards as doctors get licensed in the state that has the least strict regulations. But it still makes a lot of sense.

 

[Bob_The_Cat]

2nd Positive test came on Feb 29th. If we went by worst case scenario and the amount of positive tests doubled daily, we’d be over a million today.
As of right now, 1:12pm we have just over 7k total.
First positive case was Jan 19th and everything I’ve seen, he has recovered.

It all depends on availability of testing. Could be a lot of people that have it but can't get to a testing location / were just told to stay home by their doctor because they're not in the at risk category. Though I don't believe it's that widespread yet, it wouldn't surprise me if that many people in the US have it but haven't been confirmed.

Hopefully the measures taken so far have curbed it, but we likely won't know that for a few days. More likely this time next week.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

It all depends on availability of testing. Could be a lot of people that have it but can't get to a testing location / were just told to stay home by their doctor because they're not in the at risk category. Though I don't believe it's that widespread yet, it wouldn't surprise me if that many people in the US have it but haven't been confirmed.

Hopefully the measures taken so far have curbed it, but we likely won't know that for a few days. More likely this time next week.

The modified herd-immunity thing starts to get interesting at that point. Assuming you can't truly catch it a second time -- and I realize that's an "if" at that point -- and we can effectively test for immunity/antibodies, then it might make sense to permit those who are now immune to return to more normal activities. The reason is that the more people we have who can return to normal activities, the sooner businesses, etc., can stop the losses, and the longer those who still are at risk will be able to remain more quarantined without everything collapsing completely. I suppose it would also require solid data on the period of time that needs to elapse before a person who tests positive is no longer contagious.

 

[Ethan]

Why was H1n1 etc so different? How did we get through other ones without all this?

This one has a mortality rate that is far worse.
Italy is on pace to have more casualties than China.
Which tells me China isnt being truthful. Neither is Russia.

 

[Jordan]

The modified herd-immunity thing starts to get interesting at that point. Assuming you can't truly catch it a second time -- and I realize that's an "if" at that point -- and we can effectively test for immunity/antibodies, then it might make sense to permit those who are now immune to return to more normal activities. The reason is that the more people we have who can return to normal activities, the sooner businesses, etc., can stop the losses, and the longer those who still are at risk will be able to remain more quarantined without everything collapsing completely. I suppose it would also require solid data on the period of time that needs to elapse before a person who tests positive is no longer contagious.

The other question they are trying to answer in Israel is if, due to genetic disposition, certain people are more likely to be in the group that dies versus gets really sick versus get a bad cold. This also relates to immunity. If they can figure that out then making a vaccine will happen quicker, social isolation will become more effective, and more of this can be controlled with lighter measures.

Of course, it may just be random, but we have to wait and see.

 

[Arketebel]

It all depends on availability of testing. Could be a lot of people that have it but can't get to a testing location / were just told to stay home by their doctor because they're not in the at risk category. Though I don't believe it's that widespread yet, it wouldn't surprise me if that many people in the US have it but haven't been confirmed.

Hopefully the measures taken so far have curbed it, but we likely won't know that for a few days. More likely this time next week.

Confirming this per patient and provider experience at local providers. If flu-like symptoms are present and an influenza test is failed, only at risk patients are tested with the limited tests available. The rest are lumped in with the Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) diagnoses.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

This one has a mortality rate that is far worse.
Italy is on pace to have more casualties than China.
Which tells me China isnt being truthful. Neither is Russia.

Unless Russia is shutting down the internet, it would seem that reports of mass infection/illness would leak out. Maybe it has, but I haven't seen anything. But I could see a pretty good argument that a country as turned in on itself as Russia is -- comparatively speaking -- may actually be doing pretty well. Russia is far away from both Italy and from the population centers in China from which this arose. And there just aren't as many Russian tourists flying around an on cruise ships as there are from many other countries.

China...either China is lying, or this disease isn't as easily transmitted as thought, and/or there is a very significant number of people who get it and are relatively asymptomatic. As badly as China screwed up early on, it should have ended up infecting a lot more than 80-90k people.

 

[Sebastian]

FYI, during our all-hands meeting, our LinkedIn economists have forecasted a steep contraction for the next six months.

But recovery after that, if, a big if, there isn't a second wave of CV-19 come the fall.

They are also predicting that the overall effect of this recession should not be as bad as the Great Recession. However, it will be quite substantial.

Of course, all this is dependent on a linear progression of the malady worldwide. If it reacts in unexpected or grave ways things could get much worse.

 

[Zeus69]

Jesus Italy in the eye of the storm.

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