The Cleveland Cavaliers are an awful defensive team. Since November 3, 2017 (where they played the Washington Wizard, ended a losing streak, and began playing good basketball),
the Cavs have the seventh worst defense in the NBA. But, in a surprising turn of events, Dwyane Wade has become a lockdown defender this season, and because of it, is an unsung hero for Cleveland.
Analytically, these numbers are clear. Steve Shea – a progressive force in basketball analytics – has created a new metric that examines how a player works to prevent a higher expected shot value. I.E., a good player forces his opponent into taking shots delivering a lower expected value.
By this metric, Wade is the 24th best defender in the NBA.
ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus – which uses a regression-based model to estimate the overall value of a player compared to the league average – ranks Wade as the 9th best two-guard defender in the association.
Meanwhile, J.R. Smith ranks as the worst defender in the NBA by Shea’s metric, and per ESPN’s metric he is the 29th worst shooting guard defender in the NBA. This provides for an interesting analysis.
Switching J.R. Smith and Dwyane Wade in Cavalier lineup data is illuminating.
Per NBA Wowy, with J.R. on the court and Wade off, the Cavs give up 1.16 points per possession, equal to the worst defense in the NBA. When Wade plays and Smith does not, however, Cleveland surrenders 1.06 points per possession, good enough for fifteenth best in the NBA.
Overall, Wade turns the Cavs from one of the worst defensive teams in the league when he sits, into a middle-of-the-pack team while playing. Synergy’s playtype data can explain why.
First, and most importantly,
66% of Wade’s defensive shots contended have been on spot-ups and pick-and-rolls. On these plays, with Wade as the primary defender, opponents are averaging .763 points per possession. Comparatively, on average, players are scoring .925 points per possession on these two plays. Thus, Wade is defending spot-ups and pick-and-rolls significantly better than the average NBA player.
But what is causing Wade to defend this well?