Early 22 GM Thread! (Trade Ideas here)

[sportscoach]

With the CA$H restricted to about $ 20 MM more than what the Indians spent in 2021.. this is going to be a lean winter for this GM..

Not as lean as you think... remember 13 million was put into Eddie and Hernandez... plus if we can get Perez' price down, getting to 70 million actually will be harder than you believe. I didn't even get to 70 million extending 4 guys...

 

[Gson]

Not as lean as you think... remember 13 million was put into Eddie and Hernandez... plus if we can get Perez' price down, getting to 70 million actually will be harder than you believe. I didn't even get to 70 million extending 4 guys...

If anything..it's going to be even leaner than I think.. eddie and cesar help a wee bit.. but any extension and the arb raises are going to eat up everything in sight.

 

[sportscoach]

If anything..it's going to be even leaner than I think.. eddie and cesar help a wee bit.. but any extension and the arb raises are going to eat up everything in sight.

Tell me what arb raises we have...

 

[CATS44]

First step first.

We have to have a 40 man for the R5. I dont see why a team would make a major trade with us (Reynolds, Bart, etc) before then, because lots of teams are in the same situation as us.

20 position players.

Hedges
Franmil
Bradley
Naylor
Jose
Amed
Gimenez
Straw
Zimmer
Arias
Jones
Miller
Mercado

Freeman
Rocchio
Valera
Lavastida
Palacios
Tena
Noel

19 pitchers.

Biebs
Civale
Plesac
Quantrill
TMac
Morgan
Allen

Karinchak
Clase
Sandlin
Wittgren
Hentges
Mejia

Stephan
Moss
Vargas

Morris
Pilkington
Cantillo

The last spot goes to one of Chang, Scott, Kwan, Gonzalez.

Kwan is LH. Gonzalez is one tool. Scott is overload. Chang is one of dozens of DFAs who will be floating around after all the cuts are made.

I will pick Scott.

This leaves us without a second catcher and a legit OF bat, but it buys time to make a 3/4 for one trade.

I also think that there will be so many DFAs that a lot of fringe players will end up being outrighted to their same orgs.

This leaves us with a base payroll of about $38 mil...including all raises due to arby.

**********

Second step...

One major 3/4 for one trade for a corner bat to open at least two roster spots...hopefully three.

Targets would be...but not limited to...bats like Reynolds, Kyle Lewis, Haniger, Dominic Smith, Mullins, Teoscar Hernandez, and Laureano.

Big names, but we have what everybody wants...young front line pitching.

That will raise the payroll between $4-7 mil...lets go with $6 mil to put us at $44 mil.

*****

Third step.

Resign Berto for $5 mil. To this org, he is worth it.

$49 mil.

*************

Step Four.

Now, we are in luxury territory. We have a legitimate contender, but with money to spend to make it even better.

Offer Canha, or a similar 1B/OF bat, $8-10 mil.

We are at about $58 mil.

********

Step Five

We have about $10 mil left to use to up 2022 salaries in extensions for Jose, Biebs, etc....and $2 mil for vet middle relievers on make good contracts.

And we have retained all of our top level prospects to develop or use in the above mentioned trade....maintained most of our pitching depth...and have a lineup that could look like...

C) Hentges/Berto
DH) Franmil
1B) Bobby, with Canha as a RH option, or Naylor.
2B) Gimenez/whoever out of Arias/Miller/ Rocchio/Freeman is left.
SS) Amed
3B) Jose
CF) Straw
COF) Canha, Major bat
4th OF) Zimmer, Mercado, Naylor
Util inf) Whoever is left out of the 2Bs

The pen looks like...

Clase
Sandlin
Karinchak
Hentges
Mejia
Wittgren
Two old vets to choose from.
A bunch of young SPs who could be moved to relief.

$70 mil can buy a lot, if we are willing to use prospects to upgrade....and we have prospects.

I went thru this earlier. Our base payroll, after all arbys and raises will be around $38 mil, but does not include resigning Berto.

 

[sportscoach]

I went thru this earlier. Our base payroll, after all arbys and raises will be around $38 mil, but does not include resigning Berto.

So with Berto, you are looking at 45 making 25 million area for extensions and FA?

 

[Gson]

Tell me what arb raises we have...

Starting with $ 49 MM (includes forty man, estimated player benefits, et al)

Jose Ramirez + $3 MM could be higher as a bonus w/ extension, however unlikely..
Bebo + $ 2 MM
Hedgie + $ 4 MM
Amed + $ 3 MM could be higher or extended
Wittgren + $ 2 MM could be designated..
Bieber + $ 3 MM could be higher or extended
Franmil + $ 2 MM could be higher or extended
Quantrill + $ 2 MM could be higher or extended

As of this writing.. The Guardians have no catchers that can be counted on from trades or from internal sources. Until and unless someone is added via trade or signing, both need to be kept.. and both are sufficiently low priced that they would just be arbitration raised or option accepted, without prejudice.. Overall, adding + $ 21 MM should be expected and that's before any extensions or signings.. Only Wittgren could be considered expendable..

 

[CATS44]

You are starting way too high.

After all raises and arbys, we will be around $38 mil. Bringing Berto back for $5 mil puts us at $43 mil.

We have $27 mil left for extensions, two bats, and some bullpen help.

We can bring in two bats, one thru trade and one thru free agency, for about what we paid Eddie, Cesar and Parker this year...which leaves us with $12 mil for extensions and the bullpen.

Lets use Marte and Canha as examples.

$8.4 mil + $8 mil = $16.4 mil.

Eddie, Cesar, and Parker cost us about $14.3 mil.

 

[sportscoach]

Starting with $ 49 MM (includes forty man, estimated player benefits, et al)

Jose Ramirez + $3 MM could be higher as a bonus w/ extension, however unlikely..
Bebo + $ 2 MM
Hedgie + $ 4 MM
Amed + $ 3 MM could be higher or extended
Wittgren + $ 2 MM could be designated..
Bieber + $ 3 MM could be higher or extended
Franmil + $ 2 MM could be higher or extended
Quantrill + $ 2 MM could be higher or extended

As of this writing.. The Guardians have no catchers that can be counted on from trades or from internal sources. Until and unless someone is added via trade or signing, both need to be kept.. and both are sufficiently low priced that they would just be arbitration raised or option accepted, without prejudice.. Overall, adding + $ 21 MM should be expected and that's before any extensions or signings.. Only Wittgren could be considered expendable..

Quantrill isn't Arbitration eligible....

So when we look at things at the current moment only 8 players of the 40 man roster are getting more than the 600k area...

Those 8 players are...

Roberto Perez 7 mil (so 1.5 million increase)
JRam 12 million (2.6 mil increase)
Hedges probably at 4 million (800k increase)
Amed probably at 4.5 (2.1 million increase)
Bieber probably at 3 million (2.4 million increase)
Reyes probably at 2 million (1.4 million increase)
Wittgren probably at 3 million (1 million increase)
Zimmer probably at 1.2 (600k increase)

Then about 11 million for the pre arb guys...

We are looking at 47 million total for the 40 man roster... so 23 at the moment for the extensions and FAs...

I had Wittgren getting nontendered/DFA'd to the minors... Perez getting resign (2 million less, but a second season). Bieber, Civale and Reyes extensions wouldn't increase the payroll much from here, I am guessing after the cuts and the extension of those 3, we are looking in the low 50s, then add in JRam extension, would add about ten million, so 60ish million after extensions... my plan had us trading and extending Reynolds (4ish million year one) plus 3-4 Million for Chafin... keeping us under 70 million...

 

[xmasbuck]

has the 70 mil been established off this board?

 

[sportscoach]

has the 70 mil been established off this board?

That was part of the thread, stating 70 million was the top end for 22... the FO stated they were going to increase the budget for 22, so 70 million is actually very reasonable when it comes to that increase...

 

[CDAV45]

It looks to me like the R5 concerns are a bit overstated around here. When looking at the current 40 man there are several that can be designated, released altogether, or traded.
- I expect Rosario to be dealt with the MIF depth looming
- of the pitchers, all of Allen, Hill, Morgan, Moss, Parker, Shaw, Wittgren, and Young can be removed without being detrimental to the success of this team
- I expect only 1 of Zimmer, Mercado, Johnson, and HRam to be kept if there is a crunch.
- Neither Perez or Ramos will return
- Chang and Clement can be removed as well if their spot is needed for a better talent

How many do we need to protect? I think we'll be alright. In fact, if a team exposes a possible OF upgrade then Chernoff might pounce on him.

 

[MadThinker88]

Quantrill isn't Arbitration eligible....

.......................

Dont be so sure about that...

He has 1.132 yrs of service entering the season. He was in the majors all this year (2021), bringing him to 2.132 after the season..

The normal cut point for Super 2 is in the 120s.

So Cal might get Super 2 (or into Arbitration due to the new CBA)

 

[Gson]

has the 70 mil been established off this board?

the "$ 70 MM" number is arbitrary.. strictly.. no foundation whatsoever..

 

[CATS44]

Using Sportcoach's arby estimates and adding Quantrill, who is arby eligible, arbys will total about $20 mil.

Joses' salary will be $11 mil...so $31 mil for 9 players.

17 pre arby players X .6 mil = $10 mil...so $41 mil. (I have at $38 mil, but thats close enough.)

$5 mil to bring back Berto....$46 mil.

I had $14 mil to bring in two bats, but Marte would up that to $16 mil. Using my figure....$60 mil.

Leaving $10 mil for extensions and a reliever. I think that any extension won't have much increased up front cost. It will be back loaded with some kind of signing bonus spread over multiple years....perhaps $5 mil for next year for Jose...$3 mil for Biebs.

***********

$70 mil was the arbitrary figure for this exercise. I expect something less, in the $63-65 mil range.

 

[sportscoach]

Dont be so sure about that...

He has 1.132 yrs of service entering the season. He was in the majors all this year (2021), bringing him to 2.132 after the season..

The normal cut point for Super 2 is in the 120s.

So Cal might get Super 2 (or into Arbitration due to the new CBA)

At the current moment all the sites have him as 23 being the start of his Arbitration... it's true we don't know how they will rule super 2 or Arbitration in the new CBA. I heard they are trying to add if you hit certain ages and whatnot into effect as well into the CBA.

Even if he did go into Arbitration, it's less than a 2 million dollar difference between pre-Arbitration and Arb-1 currently for him and that's in the budget room.

Only bigger worry, is if they enact a salary floor... but we will wait to see if something like that passes, since they have to lower the tax luxury line as well, one would think the big market team may decline the decrease in Lux tax cap and a quick increase in the salary cap floor would hurt the smaller markets without fixing the revenue sharing and whatnot