Donovan Mitchell isn’t the only Cavs guard eligible for an extension, so is Isaac Okoro.
Entering his fourth season, Okoro is set to hit free agency next summer if he isn’t extended. The Cavs can make him a restricted free agent with a $11.8M qualifying offer. Otherwise, Okoro will be set free.
The Cavs and Okoro's agent could have pursued a deal this year, however the decision was always headed towards both sides waiting until next offseason to talk further – unless Okoro was content taking a below market deal. While the Cavs are likely interested in retaining Okoro long-term, both sides will have to evaluate Okoro’s development to understand what an extension may look like. Right now, there is more hope for what Okoro could be rather than certainty on what Okoro is.
The defense and athleticism have solidified but the shooting is the real swing skill – that will determine on what end of the spectrum he’s paid.
To his credit, Okoro has seen an increase in offensive shot efficiency over the last few years.
FG%: 42.% to 48% to 49.4% to 48.4%
3P%: 29% to 35% to 36.3% to 35.3%
eFG%: 47.6% to 54.4% to 55.6%
TS%: 51.4% to 58.9% to 61.4% to 57.9%
Amongst Cavaliers last year, Okoro’s eFG% was first among perimeter players and his TS% was tied with Mitchell. He also sported the highest 3P rate of his career at 48.3% (percentage of shots that were 3s) which is at a similar rate of Mitchell, and higher than Garland.
This year, Okoro is 3rd among perimeter players eFG% and and fourth in TS%. His 3P rate has dropped to 41.1% which is more than LeVert and Garland, and similar to Mitchell
Over his last 60 games, Okoro has shot 38.65% on 2.71 three-point attempts per game.
So, what’s the issue, and why is the shot still the swing skill?
Volume.
Teams can live with a player making one three per game (0.9, 0.8, 0.8 and 0.9 in four seasons), and it showed.
Of Okoro’s 2.2 three-point attempts per game last year, 2.1 per game were considered wide open (closest defender 6+ feet away). This year, 2.3 of his 2.5 attempts are considered wide open.
Even if Okoro’s efficiency is high, the poor volume will ultimately see him as a spacing concern.
Take Max Strus as a comparison. Strus’ FG%, 3P%, eFG% and TS% were all lower than Okoro’s last year. Yet, Strus attempted 7 (!) three-pointers per game and made 2.5. This year, Strus is up to 8.3 three-pointers attempted, and 2.9 made. The volume and the threat of the volume make Strus more of a threat more than Okoro’s efficiency. Strus has the chance of making anywhere from two to eight on any given night; Okoro has only made 3+ three pointers 14 times in 231 regular season games.
How, and if, Okoro turns that around to shoot at a higher volume, while maintaining somewhat of a moderate efficiency, will be the critical data evaluation point.
Because Okoro’s attempts are primarily wide-open threes and near the rim, the efficiency is high. Increased difficulty and increasing the shot volume of a less efficient shot will see Okoro’s overall efficiency dip some. But if he can maintain 35%+ on a higher volume that will create a larger threat and ultimately a more valuable player.
Speaking of value… what does the market look like for an Okoro extension?
Here’s ten similar player contracts over the last four years:
| Age when signed | Contract length | Total contract value | Annual value | Average % of salary cap | |
| Josh Hart | 26.4 | 3 | $37,920,000 | $12,640,000 | 10.2% |
| Herb Jones | 24.8 | 4 | $53,827,872 | $13,456,968 | 8.89% |
| Grant Williams | 24.6 | 4 | $53,341,500 | $13,335,375 | 8.83% |
| Matisse Thybulle | 26.3 | 3 | $33,075,000 | $11,025,000 | 7.62% |
| Royce O’Neale | 26 | 4 | $36,000,000 | $9,000,000 | 7.51% |
| De’Anthony Melton | 22.4 | 4 | $34,627,688 | $8,656,922 | 7.2% |
| Alex Caruso | 27.4 | 4 | $37,000,000 | $9,250,000 | 7.2% |
| Cody Martin | 26.8 | 4 | $31,360,000 | $7,840,000 | 5.64% |
| Caleb Martin | 26.8 | 3 | $20,408,850 | $6,802,950 | 5.08% |
| Nassir Little | 22 | 4 | $28,000,000 | $7,000,000 | 4.6% |
It’s important to note with the continual rise of the salary cap, comparing salaries from one year to the next isn’t apples to apples. This is like the present-day discussion of what today’s dollar is worth versus the dollar from many years ago.
Evaluating salaries from the context of percentage of the salary cap is a more stable comparison tool than total contractual value or annual average value. While both are good starting points, they don’t accurately depict the value of a player within the market conditions of when they signed the deal.
So, with that, extracting the value and putting it together to get a sense of the extension range of what Okoro will seek, there’s three points of data: a low-end value, based off of Nasir Little’s extension; a mid-range value, based off of the average of all 10 extensions; and a high-end value based off of Josh Hart’s previous extension.
Given most extensions or signings were four years in length, we’ll use that as a base level length.
Low end (4.6% of salary cap) – 4 years, $28.1M / $7.025M AAV | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Salary by year | Salary cap by year | Salary % of salary cap by year | |
| Year 1 | $6.53M | $142M | 4.6% |
| Year 2 | $6.85M | $149.1M | 4.6% |
| Year 3 | $7.2M | 156.55M | 4.6% |
| Year 4 | $7.56M | $164.38M | 4.6% |
| Average (7.28% of salary cap) – 4 years, $44.53M / $11.13M AAV | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Salary by year | Salary cap by year | Salary % of salary cap by year | |
| Year 1 | $10.33M | $142M | 7.28% |
| Year 2 | $10.85M | $149.1M | 7.28% |
| Year 3 | $11.39M | $156.55M | 7.28% |
| Year 4 | $11.96M | $164.38M | 7.28% |
| High end (10.2% of salary cap) – 4 years, $62.4M / $15.6M AAV | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Salary by year | Salary cap by year | Salary % of salary cap by year | |
| Year 1 | $14.48M | $142M | 10.2% |
| Year 2 | $15.2M | $149.1M | 10.2% |
| Year 3 | $15.96M | $156.55M | 10.2% |
| Year 4 | $16.76M | $164.38M | 10.2% |
Salaries for years moving forward are projections at this point. Additionally, contract structures can vary depending on how teams and agents choose to handle raises. For discussion sake, we’ll doing a flat comparison of percentage of salary cap each year.
Going into next off-season with the current salaries on the books, the Cavs will be without salary cap space and just $11M under the luxury tax line. That does include Ricky Rubio's $6.4M salary which will likely be resolved before next year's free agency period. The non-tax payer mid-level exception is an estimated $8.6M.
The Cavs will be up against the luxury tax line again this summer, and the discussions and maneuverability will likely be similar to that of this past off-season. Without any salary movement, it would seem the Cavs would favor a low-end up to average type contract extension for Okoro, leaving them below the luxury tax line and also possibly with some space to use their non-taxpayer mid-level exception.
Exercises like these also underscore the value of contracts like Emoni Bates, Isaiah Mobley, Craig Porter Jr, Dean Wade and Sam Merrill where the Cavs are getting contributions and depth from the back-end of their roster at cost controlled numbers that allow them to spend higher on the front-end of the roster.
The Okoro contract situation will be an evaluation of the player with overall team building factors and financial situation taken into consideration. While Okoro has not lived up to his draft status, he has developed into an effective role player at a young age (22) with room to grow as a player. There will be changes on the Cavs roster next off-season and Okoro will firmly be involved in what will unfold.
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