Fantasy Football 2019

[Jack Brickman]

To add a bit to my previous post, allowing your biases against certain players to impact the way you play fantasy is one of the main reasons people fail at fantasy football. Just because you don't like a guy doesn't mean he sucks or isn't valuable in fantasy football. That's why I've got tons of Lamar Jackson this year in fantasy when I'm willing to bet a lot of Cleveland fans avoided him because we've spent the last year pounding a narrative that he sucks on our forums to prop up Baker.

And I have totally been guilty of this in the past and still fall victim to it on occasion now. Last year I could have traded for Mike Evans in my dynasty league but didn't because I don't like him. Another contender traded for him shortly after and left me kicking myself.

Thus, I try very hard to not fall prey to these biases and just draft the guys I think are going to produce, personal opinion of them be damned.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Njoku was a top ten TE last year and is going to be a constant red zone threat this year. The idea that you wouldn't pick him up off of waivers is ridiculous. He's going to get targets and he is going to produce if he is healthy.

That being said, I own virtually zero Njoku this year because I didn't like his ADP. It was too high. He was being drafted up there with Howard and Engram and that's too early for a TE imo unless you're springing for Kelce or Kittle in the second or third. I either got one of the two elite guys or I waited until way late and drafted Andrews, Hockenson, and/or Waller, among a few others, which seems to have been a good call. It does look like I may have faded Engram a bit too much, but we'll have to see if he continues to dominate like he did in week one.

At any rate, Njoku is 100% a startable fantasy TE this year, especially considering I think the Browns offense will be a hell of a lot better than they looked in week one.

I'll also add that the idea that he was hardly targeted last year is patently false. He had just under 90 targets, which is a lot for a second/third tier fantasy TE.

You act like I should care about pre Freddie Kitchens offense

 

[Jack Brickman]

You act like I should care about pre Freddie Kitchens offense

Last I checked, Kitchens ran the offense for half of last season. Njoku had some very good games and some bad ones during that time frame, but that's the TE position in a nutshell. Very few guys consistently produce week in and week out at TE.

Njoku is going to be our primary red zone target, though, and that has value in fantasy football.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

In 8 games last year with Freddie calling plays and NO Odell Beckham

37 targets
25 catches
342 yards
2 touchdowns

Max in a game over that span:

Targets: 7
Catches: 5
Yards: 73

That’s a half season sample size

We just added a guy who should eat up 150 targets rather easily.

Candidly your second response pissed me off. Don’t just dismiss an opinion as bias against a player as if I have no capability of analyzing a situation and just blindly say “me no like Njoku, Njoku bad”

There are massive headwinds against Njoku and I would be surprised if he is a top 10 TE

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Last I checked, Kitchens ran the offense for half of last season. Njoku had some very good games and some bad ones during that time frame, but that's the TE position in a nutshell. Very few guys consistently produce week in and week out at TE.

Njoku is going to be our primary red zone target, though, and that has value in fantasy football.

You didn’t check very hard then. It was a very mediocre stretch

 

[Jack Brickman]

You didn’t check very hard then. It was a very mediocre stretch

Like I said, that's the TE position. It's not like he was crushing it with Jackson and Haley and then suddenly sucked when Kitchens took over. He was about the same the back eight games as he was the front.

Again, very few TEs consistently produce every week. And the ones that do get drafted in the second or third round of drafts.

But Njoku is likely to be the primary red zone target in what will hopefully be a dynamic, high scoring offense. Hence, he has value. The problem is that his ADP this year basically meant you were drafting him near his ceiling, and so I passed on him in favor of guys with similar ceilings five or six rounds later.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Like I said, that's the TE position. It's not like he was crushing it with Jackson and Haley and then suddenly sucked when Kitchens took over. He was about the same the back eight games as he was the front.

Again, very few TEs consistently produce every week. And the ones that do get drafted in the second or third round of drafts.

But Njoku is likely to be the primary red zone target in what will hopefully be a dynamic, high scoring offense. Hence, he has value. The problem is that his ADP this year basically meant you were drafting him near his ceiling, and so I passed on him in favor of guys with similar ceilings five or six rounds later.

I guess my original post was misleading. I wouldn’t pick up Njoku if he was a free agent mostly because I won’t roster 2 TEs and in all of my leagues I view my incumbent as better

Probably a better way to put it is I do not believe Njoku will be a top 10 fantasy TE this season and I agree with you that his ADP was at his ceiling.

I think Odell’s volume will cut into Njoku’s targets more than you do and that probably drives a significant amount of our difference in valuation. I view Njoku in the 70-80 target range and I’m less interested in touchdown dependency for TEs than consistent targets.

But my super coldness on Njoku as a fantasy player doesn’t stem from a bias against him. It stems from what I view as major headwinds against him and what I view as a bad fantasy situation. I feel the same about Jarvis. He was going several rounds earlier than I valued him at because I expect Odell’s target share to be massive

 

[Jack Brickman]

I guess my original post was misleading. I wouldn’t pick up Njoku if he was a free agent mostly because I won’t roster 2 TEs and in all of my leagues I view my incumbent as better

Probably a better way to put it is I do not believe Njoku will be a top 10 fantasy TE this season and I agree with you that his ADP was at his ceiling.

I think Odell’s volume will cut into Njoku’s targets more than you do and that probably drives a significant amount of our difference in valuation. I view Njoku in the 70-80 target range and I’m less interested in touchdown dependency for TEs than consistent targets.

But my super coldness on Njoku as a fantasy player doesn’t stem from a bias against him. It stems from what I view as major headwinds against him and what I view as a bad fantasy situation. I feel the same about Jarvis. He was going several rounds earlier than I valued him at because I expect Odell’s target share to be massive

If he gets 80 targets, that's only eight shy of what he got last year, and he has a lot more touchdown upside this year, assuming the Browns don't completely suck. I agree that I'd prefer to chase targets over touchdowns, but at the TE position there just aren't a ton of guys who get consistent targets, and that was even more true when we were actually drafting because we didn't see how guys were used in week one yet.

I'd totally take Hock and Waller over Njoku if I were drafting today, but a week ago they were both dice rolls. Thankfully I gambled on both guys in various leagues, but that was largely because their ADP was so low it basically cost nothing to do so.

But again, I think I own Njoku in exactly one league right now, and that's a dynasty league with contracts where I have him and Hock locked in for a combined ten bucks out of 200 for the next three years (Hock is signed for four years, Njoku for three). I traded him in my other two dynasty leagues (for Godwin in a TE premium league and for Robby Anderson and a couple of mid-round picks in another), although that was more because Browns hype inflated everyone's value after the Beckham trade.

 

[Stark]

In fantasy, I think unless you get one of the absolute elite TEs (Kelce, Kittles, Ertz), then it is a complete crap shoot about every year. You can make pretty good guesses about guys like Engram, McDonald, Njoku, etc, but unless I get one of those absolute top guys every season, I usually stream and struggle all year at TE.

Hell, Ebron was one of the best fantasy guys around last year, and this year he probably won't even be a top-15 TE.

 

[Jack Brickman]

In fantasy, I think unless you get one of the absolute elite TEs (Kelce, Kittles, Ertz), then it is a complete crap shoot about every year. You can make pretty good guesses about guys like Engram, McDonald, Njoku, etc, but unless I get one of those absolute top guys every season, I usually stream and struggle all year at TE.

Hell, Ebron was one of the best fantasy guys around last year, and this year he probably won't even be a top-15 TE.

Yeah, that's exactly why my general TE strategy is either grab an elite guy early or a guy I like real late. I stay away from middle round guys because TE is a very volatile position and I'd rather spend those picks on RBs and WRs. This year, there were only two elite TEs heading into the draft, Kelce and Kittle, so I mostly drafted guys late.

I did get Kittle and Hock in one league, which is looking pretty promising right about now.

As for Ebron, I'd say there are extenuating circumstances there. If Luck doesn't retire Ebron is still a worthwhile player.

 

[Jack Brickman]

On a more fun note, I'm in a dynasty league where, last year, I fucking hated my team at the start of the season. Basically no one was proven except for my QBs and a couple of receivers. I liked a lot of the players as prospects, but wasn't terribly confident that they were going to do much. I threw a few of my older players, like TY Hilton, on the trade block, although I don't believe I actually traded anyone important.

Then, something that never happens in fantasy football actually happened. Literally everything broke in my favor.

Note: This league is a superflex league with 1RB/1WR/1TE and four regular flex spots. It's .5PPR with .75 for TEs.

This is that roster:

QB - Ryan, Prescott, Goff
RB - Carson, Mack, Mixon, Jones, Singletary, Duke, Ingram, Breida, Davis
WR - Thomas, Hilton, Godwin, Golladay, Marquise Brown, Higgins, Washington, Lee, Callaway, Boykin, etc.
TE - Kittle, Andrews, Herndon, Rudolph & a couple of nobodies

Now, keep in mind that, heading into the season a year ago, almost none of those guys had proven shit. I also didn't have Godwin (traded for him before the season this year) or any of this year's rookies (obviously). But we know what happened with most of those guys. Carson stole the job in Seattle from a first round pick. Mack slowly became the guy in Indy. Jones was better (which anyone paying attention should have known) than Jamaal Williams. Pour one out for everyone who drafted Williams over Jones last year. Hilton went back to being awesome with Luck looking like an MVP. Kittle had arguably the greatest TE season ever. Herndon broke out. It was fucking nuts. I ended up winning the title after being ready to tear it down after week one.

And then this year, Hollywood (who I picked 12th overall in our rookie draft) tore it up in week one, Andrews was awesome, and Singletary's main competition for meaningful volume was sent packing. It's ridiculous.

 

[Surge]

On a more fun note, I'm in a dynasty league where, last year, I fucking hated my team at the start of the season. Basically no one was proven except for my QBs and a couple of receivers. I liked a lot of the players as prospects, but wasn't terribly confident that they were going to do much. I threw a few of my older players, like TY Hilton, on the trade block, although I don't believe I actually traded anyone important.

Then, something that never happens in fantasy football actually happened. Literally everything broke in my favor.

Note: This league is a superflex league with 1RB/1WR/1TE and four regular flex spots. It's .5PPR with .75 for TEs.

This is that roster:

QB - Ryan, Prescott, Goff
RB - Carson, Mack, Mixon, Jones, Singletary, Duke, Ingram, Breida, Davis
WR - Thomas, Hilton, Godwin, Golladay, Marquise Brown, Higgins, Washington, Lee, Callaway, Boykin, etc.
TE - Kittle, Andrews, Herndon, Rudolph & a couple of nobodies

Now, keep in mind that, heading into the season a year ago, almost none of those guys had proven shit. I also didn't have Godwin (traded for him before the season this year) or any of this year's rookies (obviously). But we know what happened with most of those guys. Carson stole the job in Seattle from a first round pick. Mack slowly became the guy in Indy. Jones was better (which anyone paying attention should have known) than Jamaal Williams. Pour one out for everyone who drafted Williams over Jones last year. Hilton went back to being awesome with Luck looking like an MVP. Kittle had arguably the greatest TE season ever. Herndon broke out. It was fucking nuts. I ended up winning the title after being ready to tear it down after week one.

And then this year, Hollywood (who I picked 12th overall in our rookie draft) tore it up in week one, Andrews was awesome, and Singletary's main competition for meaningful volume was sent packing. It's ridiculous.

I'm still gonna wax you.

 

[inliner311]

To add a bit to my previous post, allowing your biases against certain players to impact the way you play fantasy is one of the main reasons people fail at fantasy football. Just because you don't like a guy doesn't mean he sucks or isn't valuable in fantasy football. That's why I've got tons of Lamar Jackson this year in fantasy when I'm willing to bet a lot of Cleveland fans avoided him because we've spent the last year pounding a narrative that he sucks on our forums to prop up Baker.

And I have totally been guilty of this in the past and still fall victim to it on occasion now. Last year I could have traded for Mike Evans in my dynasty league but didn't because I don't like him. Another contender traded for him shortly after and left me kicking myself.

Thus, I try very hard to not fall prey to these biases and just draft the guys I think are going to produce, personal opinion of them be damned.

Newer fantasy players usually pick their team's guys or get emotional about one week of poor play from their team.

I know I'm going to hate this new league I'm in because just too many emotional players and first time fantasy football players. I've already decided that I won't join another league with novices again unless it's a league full of my friends. I was approached by one of my friends to join a league that he was going to try to hand pick people who he knew that they what they were doing. I passed up on it because I committed to this other league a couple weeks earlier. I'll probably regret it for the rest of the season.

 

[inliner311]

I fucking hate people who offer obscenely bad trades “to get the discussion going”

If Njoku was a FA I wouldn’t even roster him

“Hey will you trade a WR1 for my stone hands TE Who even without Odell Baker hardly targeted at all last year and now stands to be a minuscule part of the offense?”

“Just getting the discussion going!”

I think people who can be talked into those bad trades are terrible too. It throws the balance of the league all off. It's basically a con man's approach to fantasy football.

If its a league I'm the commissioner in, I'd veto severely unbalanced trades. I might get some flak from the parties involved but I think it keeps the league on a level playing field and people committed to it long term. My goal as a commissioner is to have a fun long term league. If I lose the guy who is throwing out ridiculous trade offers and the one who doesn't have the sense to reject those offers so be it.

 

[Jack Brickman]

I'm still gonna wax you.

Wasn't talking about the RCF dynasty team. This is a different league.

My RCF roster is:

QB - Wilson, Ryan, Winston
RB - Bell, DJ, Damien Williams, Ingram, Sanders, Kerryon, Bernard, Hyde, & scrubs
WR - Allen, Godwin, Jeffery, Tyrell Williams, Jackson, John Brown, Higgins, Lee, & scrubs
TE - Kelce, Herndon

Not gonna bother with the IDP guys because who fucking cares. Either way, I won last year and my team is good enough to win again this year.

Also, keep in mind that I won the RCF league last year after trading for Gronk and Bell. Neither guy did shit for my team (although thankfully OB1 bailed me out and gave me Kerryon and the pick that became Miles Sanders for Gronk) and I still beat you assholes. On the plus side, Hunt was a big piece of that trade and Rosen is garbage, so I think it ultimately ended up being sort of a wash.