What are draft scenarios if they win?
If they win, they will be 22-43 going into the final game against Chicago.
Right now, New Jersey and Toronto are tied at 22-43. So they would be entering a three way tie with New Jersey and Toronto. However, Toronto and New Jersey play each other on their last game. So one of them will end up 22-44 and the other will be 23-43. If the Cavs win against Washington and lose to Chicago, they will also finish 22-44.
Here are the standings as of now (and in parentheses, I will put the team's likely end record).
1. Charlotte: 7-57 (2 games left, 7-59 finish)
2. Washington: 18-46 (2 games left, 18-48)* <--- Assuming the Cavs and Heat beat them
3. (tie) New Orleans: 21-44 (1 game left, 21-45)
3. (tie) Sacramento: 21-44 (1 game left, 21-45)
5. Cleveland: 21-43 (2 games left, 22-44)* <--- Have them beating Washington in this hypothetical
6. (tie) New Jersey: 22-43 (1 game left, 22-44 or 23-43)
6. (tie) Toronto: 22-43 (1 game left, 22-44 or 23-43)
8. Golden State: 23-42 (1 game left, 23-43)
9. Detroit: 24-41 (1 game left, 24-42)
10. Minnesota: 26-39 (1 game left, 26-40)
So, if the Cavs beat the Wizards tonight and lose to the Bulls tomorrow night, they will tie with either New Jersey or Toronto. Assuming everything else plays out like I have above, they would tie at the #5 and #6 positions.
Here are the percentages associated with getting into the top three for teams that finish #5 and #6.
5: 8.8% (1st), 9.7% (2nd), 10.7% (3rd)
6: 6.3% (1st), 7.1% (2nd), 8.1% (3rd)
In the tie, there is one extra ball (151 total), so one team will have 75 and the other will have 76.
5-6: (tie) 7.6% (1st), 8.4% (2nd), 9.4% (3rd)