- Joined
- Oct 3, 2019
- Messages
- 10,085
- Reaction score
- 28,929
- Points
- 135
The first game of spring and the Toronto Raptors make the short trip across Lake Erie to take on the Cavaliers. The Raptors are 17-24 but have lost seven in a row. That’s misleading, however, because they had a big COVID problem last month. They were 17-17 on Feb. 24 but had to cancel their next two games due to a COVID outbreak and then lost the next five with starters VanVleet, Anunoby, and Siakam out. Their first game back they lost a close one to Detroit and Friday they lost by three points to Utah. Based on how closely they played the Jazz, it looks like they’re back.
The Raptors have a solid starting five but their bench is very shallow. Pascal Siakam is a 6’9” power forward with a line of 20.1/7.3/4.8. Og Anunoby, 6’7”, is averaging 13.8 points and 5.7 rebounds. Norman Powell, 6’3”, averages 19.6 ppg. Then there are the small guards; Kyle Lowry averages 17.6 points and 7.5 assists while Fred VanVleet averages 19.8 point and 6.6 assists. Power forward Chris Boucher, 6’9”. averages 14.4 points off the bench. Nobody else averages more than 7.0 ppg.
The Raptors rely heavily on those six players. Against Utah Friday those six combined to score 106 of the team’s 112 points. Other than Boucher they have almost no bench.
They’re also a small team, starting one power forward, one small forward, and three guards; 6’3” Norman Powell, 6’1” Fred VanVleet, and 6’0” Kyle Lowry. For once the Cavs’ small backcourt won’t be a disadvantage. Backup center Aron Baynes is their tallest player at 6’10”. He averages 19 minutes per game.
The Raptors are a very experienced team, led by 34-year-old point guard Kyle Lowry. VanVleet is 27, Boucher 28, Siakam 26, and Powell 27. Anunoby is the young guy at 23 but he’s in his fourth season.
The Cavs play the Raptors three times in the next five weeks.
The Raptors are average offensively and defensively. They rank 14th in offensive efficiency. They rank 28th in points in the paint and 3rd in 3-point rate, so they definitely prefer to attack from the perimeter. They’re good 3-point shooters, ranking 9th in 3-point percentage. They like to run the floor, ranking 8th in fast break points per game. They push the ball up the floor and try to set up open 3’s.
Defensively they are 17th in efficiency. They’re extremely good in the paint, ranking 2nd in points in the paint despite being a smaller team. They’re 4th in block percentage so getting layups on these guys is not easy. However, they’re only 27th in defensive rebound percentage so my guess is that by going for blocks they leave themselves vulnerable to offensive rebounds. Jarrett Allen could have a big night on the offensive glass.
The Raptors also foul a lot; they are last in the NBA in opponents’ free throws per offensive play. My guess is they end up having to foul when a taller opponent gets the ball near the rim while isolated on one of their three guards.
The Raptors rank 5th in steals per defensive play, so it appears they try to make up for lack of size by gambling a lot and going for steals and blocks. They probably pack the paint and force opponents to take outside shots. They’re 21st in opponents’ 3-point percentage.
Norman Powell is hitting 44.8% on 3’s. Boucher is at 43.9%. Anunoby is at 40.3%, Lowry 39.3%, and VanVleet 37.4%. Siakam is the only member of their core six who is not a good 3-point shooter.
How the Cavs can win:
1. Get the Raptors in foul trouble. They foul more than anybody and they have almost no bench. Allen has a big height advantage over all their starters. The Cavs should attack the rim relentlessly and try to draw fouls, getting their starters in foul trouble and forcing them to sit down or at least stop challenging shots as aggressively.
2. Attack Lowry with Garland and Sexton. Lowry is 34 and has probably lost a step. If Sexton and Garland can get some blow-bys and then hit runners in the lane or layups or draw fouls the Cavs will be in good shape. According to the Raptors' beat writer, Boucher has been awful defensively.
3. If the Raptors fall back and pack the paint to neutralize Allen and prevent layups, the Cavs need to hit their open 3’s. I expect this will be the Raptors game plan since the Cavs are 3rd in points in the paint and 29th in 3-point percentage. I’d be shocked if the Raptors don’t put five guys in the paint and make the Cavs beat them on 3’s.
4. On defense the Cavs need to do a lot better defending the 3-point shot because that’s the Raptors bread and butter. The Cavs are 29th in opponents’ 3-point percentage and the Raptors have excellent 3-point shooters. I’m sure they will try to exploit the Cavs inability to defend the perimeter by jacking up even more 3’s than usual, especially with Allen defending the rim.
5. Take advantage of the Raptors lack of defensive rebounding (27th) to get a lot of second chance points. Allen should be hitting the offensive glass relentlessly and getting a lot of put-backs. Hopefully McGee (game time decision) is available.
How the Raptors could win:
1. Exploit the Cavs’ 29th ranked perimeter defense by burying the Cavs under a barrage of 3’s.
2. Pack the paint defensively and let the Cavs’ 29th ranked 3-point shooters lay some bricks, then fast break them to death.
The Raptors have a solid starting five but their bench is very shallow. Pascal Siakam is a 6’9” power forward with a line of 20.1/7.3/4.8. Og Anunoby, 6’7”, is averaging 13.8 points and 5.7 rebounds. Norman Powell, 6’3”, averages 19.6 ppg. Then there are the small guards; Kyle Lowry averages 17.6 points and 7.5 assists while Fred VanVleet averages 19.8 point and 6.6 assists. Power forward Chris Boucher, 6’9”. averages 14.4 points off the bench. Nobody else averages more than 7.0 ppg.
The Raptors rely heavily on those six players. Against Utah Friday those six combined to score 106 of the team’s 112 points. Other than Boucher they have almost no bench.
They’re also a small team, starting one power forward, one small forward, and three guards; 6’3” Norman Powell, 6’1” Fred VanVleet, and 6’0” Kyle Lowry. For once the Cavs’ small backcourt won’t be a disadvantage. Backup center Aron Baynes is their tallest player at 6’10”. He averages 19 minutes per game.
The Raptors are a very experienced team, led by 34-year-old point guard Kyle Lowry. VanVleet is 27, Boucher 28, Siakam 26, and Powell 27. Anunoby is the young guy at 23 but he’s in his fourth season.
The Cavs play the Raptors three times in the next five weeks.
The Raptors are average offensively and defensively. They rank 14th in offensive efficiency. They rank 28th in points in the paint and 3rd in 3-point rate, so they definitely prefer to attack from the perimeter. They’re good 3-point shooters, ranking 9th in 3-point percentage. They like to run the floor, ranking 8th in fast break points per game. They push the ball up the floor and try to set up open 3’s.
Defensively they are 17th in efficiency. They’re extremely good in the paint, ranking 2nd in points in the paint despite being a smaller team. They’re 4th in block percentage so getting layups on these guys is not easy. However, they’re only 27th in defensive rebound percentage so my guess is that by going for blocks they leave themselves vulnerable to offensive rebounds. Jarrett Allen could have a big night on the offensive glass.
The Raptors also foul a lot; they are last in the NBA in opponents’ free throws per offensive play. My guess is they end up having to foul when a taller opponent gets the ball near the rim while isolated on one of their three guards.
The Raptors rank 5th in steals per defensive play, so it appears they try to make up for lack of size by gambling a lot and going for steals and blocks. They probably pack the paint and force opponents to take outside shots. They’re 21st in opponents’ 3-point percentage.
Norman Powell is hitting 44.8% on 3’s. Boucher is at 43.9%. Anunoby is at 40.3%, Lowry 39.3%, and VanVleet 37.4%. Siakam is the only member of their core six who is not a good 3-point shooter.
How the Cavs can win:
1. Get the Raptors in foul trouble. They foul more than anybody and they have almost no bench. Allen has a big height advantage over all their starters. The Cavs should attack the rim relentlessly and try to draw fouls, getting their starters in foul trouble and forcing them to sit down or at least stop challenging shots as aggressively.
2. Attack Lowry with Garland and Sexton. Lowry is 34 and has probably lost a step. If Sexton and Garland can get some blow-bys and then hit runners in the lane or layups or draw fouls the Cavs will be in good shape. According to the Raptors' beat writer, Boucher has been awful defensively.
3. If the Raptors fall back and pack the paint to neutralize Allen and prevent layups, the Cavs need to hit their open 3’s. I expect this will be the Raptors game plan since the Cavs are 3rd in points in the paint and 29th in 3-point percentage. I’d be shocked if the Raptors don’t put five guys in the paint and make the Cavs beat them on 3’s.
4. On defense the Cavs need to do a lot better defending the 3-point shot because that’s the Raptors bread and butter. The Cavs are 29th in opponents’ 3-point percentage and the Raptors have excellent 3-point shooters. I’m sure they will try to exploit the Cavs inability to defend the perimeter by jacking up even more 3’s than usual, especially with Allen defending the rim.
5. Take advantage of the Raptors lack of defensive rebounding (27th) to get a lot of second chance points. Allen should be hitting the offensive glass relentlessly and getting a lot of put-backs. Hopefully McGee (game time decision) is available.
How the Raptors could win:
1. Exploit the Cavs’ 29th ranked perimeter defense by burying the Cavs under a barrage of 3’s.
2. Pack the paint defensively and let the Cavs’ 29th ranked 3-point shooters lay some bricks, then fast break them to death.
