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Let’s start with some good news: As of 7:00 a.m. Monday morning I have not seen any reports of Cavaliers guards being injured at practice yesterday. There’s still 12 hours to game time, though. Gotta make it through the shoot around.
After a day off to recover from grinding out a tough win over the Wizards the Cavs stay home to take on another .500 team, the Minnesota Timberwolves. The T-Wolves lost to the Cavs in Minnesota on Dec. 10 by a 123-106 score. The Cavs were at full strength that night except or Sexton. Garland was a +29 in 31 minutes as the Wolves had no answer for the middle pick-and-roll. Tonight the Cavs will not have Darius or Rubio, or even Rondo and LeVert, and that will be a significant challenge.
The Wolves did not have D’Angelo Russell for that game but he’s healthy now.
The Wolves are 32-29 overall and 14-17 on the road. They’ve been a “win one, lose one” team all year with records of 10-10, 20-20, and now 32-29. Their last game was Saturday where they were blown out at home by the new-look 76ers, 133-102. Embiid, Harden, and Maxey combined for 89 points. I’m kind of scared of the Sixers now that they replaced Ben Simmons in street clothes with James Harden in a uniform.
The Wolves are very good offensively, ranking 6th in scoring average. They are highly dependent on 3-point shooting, ranking 3rd in 3-point rate and 3rd in percentage of points from 3’s. They’re only 26th in percentage of points from 2’s.
Despite jacking up a ton of 3’s they’re only 19th in effective field goal percentage, so they’re not great shooters. But they are 4th in offensive rebound percentage and 3rd in second chance points so if the Cavs are not vigilant on the defensive glass they will be in a lot of trouble.
The Wolves rank 4th in field goals attempted per game thanks mostly to offensive rebounding getting them extra shots.
The key for the Cavs is to contest the 3’s, force misses, and get our guards and wings to help out on the long rebounds and limit the Wolves second chance opportunities. In the first game the Cavs limited the Wolves to 10 offensive rebounds and 106 points on 39% from the field and 28% on 3’s. Those are the kind of numbers you need to beat this team.
A major area of concern for the Cavs has to be turnovers. The Cavs rank 25th in opponents’ points off turnovers while the Wolves are 1st in scoring points off turnovers. On top of that, the Cavs’ top three ball-handlers are out. The Cavs need to play deliberately and not force passes.
Defensively the Wolves are below average, ranking 22nd in scoring defense. They’re average in defending shots (17th in effective FG percentage) but last in the league in defensive rebounding. They are 26th in second chance points allowed so with their height advantage the Cavs should be active on the offensive glass.
The Wolves also hack a lot, ranking last in opponents’ free throws made per game, probably because they lack height outside of the center position. So offensively the Cavs need to crash the offensive glass, get offensive rebounds, and get fouled on the put-backs. I would also say attack the rim to draw fouls but the Wolves are among the best at shot blocking and getting steals so driving into a crowd of defenders is not a good idea.
Against Washington on Saturday the Cavs were 20-for-24 on free throws. They need something like that tonight against the team that allows more free throws than any.
The Wolves are very good at blocking shots (3rd) and steals per play (6th), so the Cavs need to be aware of them jumping the passing lanes and blocking shots. The Wolves are 8th in preventing points in the paint so the Cavs need to be aware of Towns and Vanderbilt when attacking the rim. The key is to commit the big man to blocking the shot and then dishing it off.
My guess is their bigs love to go for blocked shots which leaves the rim unprotected for offensive rebounds. That would explain why they’re 3rd in block percentage and 30th in defensive rebounding. IIRC, in the first game the Cavs were killing them on lobs, especially in the first half. Garland had 12 assists that game. He came around screens and Towns contested him, leaving Allen open to roll to the rim. The Cavs scored 34 in the first quarter and 65 in the first half. It won’t be that easy tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns, 6’11”, is their star, averaging 24.4 ppg and 9.7 rebounds. He’s hitting 51.9% from the field and 40.9% on 3’s. The Cavs can’t leave him alone at the 3-point line.
Anthony Edwards averages 21.4 points but only shoots 43.1%. D’Angelo Russell averages 19.3 on 41.6%. Patrick Beverly shoots 40.3% and power forward Jarred Vanderbilt averages 7.1 points per game.
These guys are not high percentage shooters (except for Towns), so they need to get offensive rebounds to score enough to win, especially with a below average defense. Towns and Vanderbilt are getting 50% of their offensive rebounds between them, so the Cavs need to keep those two off the glass.
The Wolves starting lineup of Russell, Beverly, Edwards, Vanderbilt, and Towns is a +17.3 on the season, which is second best in the NBA among lineups with over 250 minutes. It’s amazing that the Wolves have the league’s second best starting lineup but are barely over .500. Obviously their bench sucks. So the key for the Cavs is for their starters to play the Wolves’ starters pretty even and let the Cavs’ bench win the game. That will be tough with Goodwin and Tim Frazier playing in place of Garland and Rubio/Rondo at point guard. By the way, the Tim Frazier era begins tonight.
Jarrett Allen needs to man up and neutralize KAT in the battle of All-Star centers. Kevin Love needs to find his 3-point shot; he’s 1-for-9 in the last two games and 2-for-15 overall. With Garland and LeVert out we need others to pick up the scoring slack and we can't afford Love checking out right now.
Other than Towns the Wolves are not tall; Vanderbilt is 6’9” but Russell, Edwards, and Beasley are 6’4”, and Beverly is 6’1”. Either Mobley or Markkanen will be guarded by a 6’4” player on every possession. Same for Love and Wade. Obviously the post-up opportunities will be there all night long and the way the Wolves foul we should be able to get in the bonus early each quarter.
Why the Wolves will win:
Despite a low shooting percentage they’ll get a lot of offensive rebounds and second chance points. They’ll also score a lot of points off turnovers and blocked shots against one of the most turnover prone teams in the league. After getting embarrassed by Philly at home on Saturday they will bring their A game. Their elite starting lineup will dominate the Cavs starters with Garland out and their bench will hang on.
Why the Cavs will win:
Having just held Washington to 86 points one day after they scored 130 the Cavs are playing great defense and will keep the Wolves under 100 despite giving up some second chance points and some points off turnovers. The Wolves are highly dependent on 3-point shooting and the Cavs rank 9th in defending 3’s so they will force a lot of misses. Offensively the Cavs will use their height advantage on the front line to get lots of easy buckets and get into the bonus early against the league’s most foul-prone team. The Cavs have won 9 of their last 11 at home and will be playing a team that’s 14-17 on the road.
After a day off to recover from grinding out a tough win over the Wizards the Cavs stay home to take on another .500 team, the Minnesota Timberwolves. The T-Wolves lost to the Cavs in Minnesota on Dec. 10 by a 123-106 score. The Cavs were at full strength that night except or Sexton. Garland was a +29 in 31 minutes as the Wolves had no answer for the middle pick-and-roll. Tonight the Cavs will not have Darius or Rubio, or even Rondo and LeVert, and that will be a significant challenge.
The Wolves did not have D’Angelo Russell for that game but he’s healthy now.
The Wolves are 32-29 overall and 14-17 on the road. They’ve been a “win one, lose one” team all year with records of 10-10, 20-20, and now 32-29. Their last game was Saturday where they were blown out at home by the new-look 76ers, 133-102. Embiid, Harden, and Maxey combined for 89 points. I’m kind of scared of the Sixers now that they replaced Ben Simmons in street clothes with James Harden in a uniform.
The Wolves are very good offensively, ranking 6th in scoring average. They are highly dependent on 3-point shooting, ranking 3rd in 3-point rate and 3rd in percentage of points from 3’s. They’re only 26th in percentage of points from 2’s.
Despite jacking up a ton of 3’s they’re only 19th in effective field goal percentage, so they’re not great shooters. But they are 4th in offensive rebound percentage and 3rd in second chance points so if the Cavs are not vigilant on the defensive glass they will be in a lot of trouble.
The Wolves rank 4th in field goals attempted per game thanks mostly to offensive rebounding getting them extra shots.
The key for the Cavs is to contest the 3’s, force misses, and get our guards and wings to help out on the long rebounds and limit the Wolves second chance opportunities. In the first game the Cavs limited the Wolves to 10 offensive rebounds and 106 points on 39% from the field and 28% on 3’s. Those are the kind of numbers you need to beat this team.
A major area of concern for the Cavs has to be turnovers. The Cavs rank 25th in opponents’ points off turnovers while the Wolves are 1st in scoring points off turnovers. On top of that, the Cavs’ top three ball-handlers are out. The Cavs need to play deliberately and not force passes.
Defensively the Wolves are below average, ranking 22nd in scoring defense. They’re average in defending shots (17th in effective FG percentage) but last in the league in defensive rebounding. They are 26th in second chance points allowed so with their height advantage the Cavs should be active on the offensive glass.
The Wolves also hack a lot, ranking last in opponents’ free throws made per game, probably because they lack height outside of the center position. So offensively the Cavs need to crash the offensive glass, get offensive rebounds, and get fouled on the put-backs. I would also say attack the rim to draw fouls but the Wolves are among the best at shot blocking and getting steals so driving into a crowd of defenders is not a good idea.
Against Washington on Saturday the Cavs were 20-for-24 on free throws. They need something like that tonight against the team that allows more free throws than any.
The Wolves are very good at blocking shots (3rd) and steals per play (6th), so the Cavs need to be aware of them jumping the passing lanes and blocking shots. The Wolves are 8th in preventing points in the paint so the Cavs need to be aware of Towns and Vanderbilt when attacking the rim. The key is to commit the big man to blocking the shot and then dishing it off.
My guess is their bigs love to go for blocked shots which leaves the rim unprotected for offensive rebounds. That would explain why they’re 3rd in block percentage and 30th in defensive rebounding. IIRC, in the first game the Cavs were killing them on lobs, especially in the first half. Garland had 12 assists that game. He came around screens and Towns contested him, leaving Allen open to roll to the rim. The Cavs scored 34 in the first quarter and 65 in the first half. It won’t be that easy tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns, 6’11”, is their star, averaging 24.4 ppg and 9.7 rebounds. He’s hitting 51.9% from the field and 40.9% on 3’s. The Cavs can’t leave him alone at the 3-point line.
Anthony Edwards averages 21.4 points but only shoots 43.1%. D’Angelo Russell averages 19.3 on 41.6%. Patrick Beverly shoots 40.3% and power forward Jarred Vanderbilt averages 7.1 points per game.
These guys are not high percentage shooters (except for Towns), so they need to get offensive rebounds to score enough to win, especially with a below average defense. Towns and Vanderbilt are getting 50% of their offensive rebounds between them, so the Cavs need to keep those two off the glass.
The Wolves starting lineup of Russell, Beverly, Edwards, Vanderbilt, and Towns is a +17.3 on the season, which is second best in the NBA among lineups with over 250 minutes. It’s amazing that the Wolves have the league’s second best starting lineup but are barely over .500. Obviously their bench sucks. So the key for the Cavs is for their starters to play the Wolves’ starters pretty even and let the Cavs’ bench win the game. That will be tough with Goodwin and Tim Frazier playing in place of Garland and Rubio/Rondo at point guard. By the way, the Tim Frazier era begins tonight.
Jarrett Allen needs to man up and neutralize KAT in the battle of All-Star centers. Kevin Love needs to find his 3-point shot; he’s 1-for-9 in the last two games and 2-for-15 overall. With Garland and LeVert out we need others to pick up the scoring slack and we can't afford Love checking out right now.
Other than Towns the Wolves are not tall; Vanderbilt is 6’9” but Russell, Edwards, and Beasley are 6’4”, and Beverly is 6’1”. Either Mobley or Markkanen will be guarded by a 6’4” player on every possession. Same for Love and Wade. Obviously the post-up opportunities will be there all night long and the way the Wolves foul we should be able to get in the bonus early each quarter.
Why the Wolves will win:
Despite a low shooting percentage they’ll get a lot of offensive rebounds and second chance points. They’ll also score a lot of points off turnovers and blocked shots against one of the most turnover prone teams in the league. After getting embarrassed by Philly at home on Saturday they will bring their A game. Their elite starting lineup will dominate the Cavs starters with Garland out and their bench will hang on.
Why the Cavs will win:
Having just held Washington to 86 points one day after they scored 130 the Cavs are playing great defense and will keep the Wolves under 100 despite giving up some second chance points and some points off turnovers. The Wolves are highly dependent on 3-point shooting and the Cavs rank 9th in defending 3’s so they will force a lot of misses. Offensively the Cavs will use their height advantage on the front line to get lots of easy buckets and get into the bonus early against the league’s most foul-prone team. The Cavs have won 9 of their last 11 at home and will be playing a team that’s 14-17 on the road.
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