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After a frustrating loss to the 8-18 Spurs the Cavs take a short trip north to play the Mavericks. On paper the Cavs have little chance; the Mavs are 11-4 at home while the Cavs are 5-9 on the road. The Mavs have won 4 of 6, including a win over Phoenix and a one-point loss to Milwaukee. Overall the Mavs are just 14-13 but that is due to a bad road record which won’t be a factor tonight.
The Mavs are lead by one of the elite players in the game, 6’7” PG Luka Doncic. The 23-year-old is averaging 33 points, 8 rebounds, and 9 assists on 50% from the field and 34% on 3’s. He averages 10.4 free throw attempts per game, but only makes 7.4.
Doncic plays slow but uses his strength (230 pounds) and dribbling ability to get into the paint where he can shoot a fallaway or layup, draw a foul, or pass to the perimeter.
Spencer Dinwiddie, 6’6”, is their second leading scorer at 17 ppg, shooting a solid 46% overall and 41% on 3’s. Tim Hardaway, Jr, 6’5”, averages 13.3 ppg but only hits 37%. PF Dorian Finney-Smith, 6’7”, averages 8.4 egg on 40% and C Dwight Powell, 6’10”, averages 5.8 ppg.
This is a very seasoned bunch; other than Doncic their starters are all between 29-31 years old. Their primary bench players are Reggie Bullock (age 31), Maxi Kleber (30), and Christian Wood (27). We could also see Davis Bertans (30), JaVale McGee (34), and Kemba Walker (32).
You really wonder what Mark Cuban is going to do. The team is 14-13 and in 9th place in the West, yet none of his players are going to get any better, including Doncic, who was probably playing on the Slovenian national team when he was 11.
But that’s his problem. Let’s look at what the Cavs are dealing with tonight.
The Mavs rank 19th in scoring. They are an extreme outside shooting team, leading the NBA in 3-point rate at 49% while ranking second last in points in the paint. They’re not that great at shooting 3’s, ranking 16th in percentage made, but they jack up a lot of them.
The Mavs play slow, ranking last in fast break points. This game will be a crawl between two half-court offenses. Doncic walks it up, taking his time, and gets them into their offense, which results in a 3-point attempt almost half the time. They are 28th in field goal attempts per game. The Cavs are 24th, so this will be a slow one.
The Mavs do a great job of protecting the ball, ranking 2nd fewest in turnover percentage. They also get fouled more than anybody, ranking 1st in free throw attempts per game at 25.4. Doncic shoots 10.4 of those. He’s adept at pump faking and drawing fouls.
They are weak on the offensive glass, ranking 28th in offensive rebound percentage, so if you can make them miss the first shot you’re in good shape.
I expect JBB will put either Allen or Mobley (or alternate them) on Doncic. Luka is not fast so putting a big on him makes sense. However, he is strong enough to power his way to the rim against tall, skinny guys and from in close he’s great at drawing fouls. Our bigs need to stay out of foul trouble at all costs. That means not biting on pump fakes.
The Mavs lead the NBA in frequency of corner 3’s and make nearly 40% of them. Their game is to get Luka into the paint for a bucket, a foul, or a kick out to the corner. The Cavs need to avoid doubling Luka too much which will result in an uncontested 3. Make him shoot over a big man and live with the results.
Defensively the Mavs rank 7th in points per game, but that’s misleading. They are 19th in points allowed per possession and 25th in opponents’ effective field goal percentage. They rank high in scoring defense mainly because they play so slow on offense and because they get a lot of steals, ranking 5th.
They are not shot blockers (27th in block percentage) and they don’t defend the 3-point shot well (26th). You can score from inside and outside. But the Spurs were last in 3-point defense and the Cavs still only went 5-for-23. If I were the Cavs I would attack inside relentlessly. All the Mavs starters except their center are 6’5” to 6’7”. Mobley is going to have a big height advantage on whoever guards him.
So basically the Mavs are a veteran team that plays very well at home and is led by a future HOFer at point guard who is equally adept at scoring and assists. The Cavs are younger and have a better record but suck on the road. At least they won’t come into this one overconfident and “playing the record instead of the team” as Donovan Mitchell put it after the loss to San Antonio.
This will be a wrestling match between two half-court teams led by point guards who love to dribble. I expect a little more fire from the Cavs after their loss to the Spurs, especially in the first quarter. This one could be interesting, especially if the Cavs can hit some 3’s. Garland is hitting 28.4% of his 3’s on the road. That has to change.
The Mavs are lead by one of the elite players in the game, 6’7” PG Luka Doncic. The 23-year-old is averaging 33 points, 8 rebounds, and 9 assists on 50% from the field and 34% on 3’s. He averages 10.4 free throw attempts per game, but only makes 7.4.
Doncic plays slow but uses his strength (230 pounds) and dribbling ability to get into the paint where he can shoot a fallaway or layup, draw a foul, or pass to the perimeter.
Spencer Dinwiddie, 6’6”, is their second leading scorer at 17 ppg, shooting a solid 46% overall and 41% on 3’s. Tim Hardaway, Jr, 6’5”, averages 13.3 ppg but only hits 37%. PF Dorian Finney-Smith, 6’7”, averages 8.4 egg on 40% and C Dwight Powell, 6’10”, averages 5.8 ppg.
This is a very seasoned bunch; other than Doncic their starters are all between 29-31 years old. Their primary bench players are Reggie Bullock (age 31), Maxi Kleber (30), and Christian Wood (27). We could also see Davis Bertans (30), JaVale McGee (34), and Kemba Walker (32).
You really wonder what Mark Cuban is going to do. The team is 14-13 and in 9th place in the West, yet none of his players are going to get any better, including Doncic, who was probably playing on the Slovenian national team when he was 11.
But that’s his problem. Let’s look at what the Cavs are dealing with tonight.
The Mavs rank 19th in scoring. They are an extreme outside shooting team, leading the NBA in 3-point rate at 49% while ranking second last in points in the paint. They’re not that great at shooting 3’s, ranking 16th in percentage made, but they jack up a lot of them.
The Mavs play slow, ranking last in fast break points. This game will be a crawl between two half-court offenses. Doncic walks it up, taking his time, and gets them into their offense, which results in a 3-point attempt almost half the time. They are 28th in field goal attempts per game. The Cavs are 24th, so this will be a slow one.
The Mavs do a great job of protecting the ball, ranking 2nd fewest in turnover percentage. They also get fouled more than anybody, ranking 1st in free throw attempts per game at 25.4. Doncic shoots 10.4 of those. He’s adept at pump faking and drawing fouls.
They are weak on the offensive glass, ranking 28th in offensive rebound percentage, so if you can make them miss the first shot you’re in good shape.
I expect JBB will put either Allen or Mobley (or alternate them) on Doncic. Luka is not fast so putting a big on him makes sense. However, he is strong enough to power his way to the rim against tall, skinny guys and from in close he’s great at drawing fouls. Our bigs need to stay out of foul trouble at all costs. That means not biting on pump fakes.
The Mavs lead the NBA in frequency of corner 3’s and make nearly 40% of them. Their game is to get Luka into the paint for a bucket, a foul, or a kick out to the corner. The Cavs need to avoid doubling Luka too much which will result in an uncontested 3. Make him shoot over a big man and live with the results.
Defensively the Mavs rank 7th in points per game, but that’s misleading. They are 19th in points allowed per possession and 25th in opponents’ effective field goal percentage. They rank high in scoring defense mainly because they play so slow on offense and because they get a lot of steals, ranking 5th.
They are not shot blockers (27th in block percentage) and they don’t defend the 3-point shot well (26th). You can score from inside and outside. But the Spurs were last in 3-point defense and the Cavs still only went 5-for-23. If I were the Cavs I would attack inside relentlessly. All the Mavs starters except their center are 6’5” to 6’7”. Mobley is going to have a big height advantage on whoever guards him.
So basically the Mavs are a veteran team that plays very well at home and is led by a future HOFer at point guard who is equally adept at scoring and assists. The Cavs are younger and have a better record but suck on the road. At least they won’t come into this one overconfident and “playing the record instead of the team” as Donovan Mitchell put it after the loss to San Antonio.
This will be a wrestling match between two half-court teams led by point guards who love to dribble. I expect a little more fire from the Cavs after their loss to the Spurs, especially in the first quarter. This one could be interesting, especially if the Cavs can hit some 3’s. Garland is hitting 28.4% of his 3’s on the road. That has to change.
