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Game Thread | Game #32 | Jazz @ Cavs | Dec. 19, 2022

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Wham with the Right Hand

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It’s a Homecoming game for the Cavaliers as the Utah Jazz make their only appearance of the season in Cleveland, bringing Lauri Markkanen, Colin Sexton, and Jordan Clarkson back to their old stomping grounds. Markkanen and Clarkson are starting while Sexton comes off the bench, although he has been ruled out due to a hamstring issue.

Technically Ochai Agbaji is also a former Cav, although he never suited up. He has only appeared in four games this year.

The Jazz got off to a surprisingly good start at 10-3, but have since compiled a 7-12 record. They’ve been two completely different teams. Don’t ask me what happened.

In their last game (Saturday), they lost in Milwaukee by 26 points despite Giannis and Middleton being out. But in their previous two games they beat second place New Orleans both times, albeit at home. Are we going to get the team that beat the Pelicans back-to-back or the team that got thrashed by a Bucks team missing two key starters?

The Jazz are 11-5 at home and 6-10 on the road. They don’t travel well, averaging 121.5 points at home and 113 on the road. So this will be a game between a team that is 14-2 at home and a team that’s 6-10 on the road.

In addition to Sexton possibly being out, starting C Kelly Olynyk left Saturday’s game with a sprained ankle and was unable to return. He’s also listed as a game time decision. If he can’t go it would be a real problem since the Jazz are short on quality bigs.

Their starting lineup, besides Olynyk, is Markkanen (6’11”) at power forward, Jarred Vanderbilt (6’9”, 214) at small forward, Mike Conley (6’1”, age 35) at point guard, and Clarkson (6’4”) at shooting guard. Their backup center is Walker Kessler, the #22 pick in this year’s draft, who averages 6.4 points.

Markkanen, still only 25, leads the Jazz in scoring and rebounding with 22.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. He’s having a career year shooting 53% from the field and 42% from deep. He has a chance to make the All-Star team. His year is Cleveland may have jump started his career.

Clarkson averages 20 points on 44% shooting and Olynyk averages 13 points on 53% and 43%. Conley and Vanderbilt average 9.8 and 8.3 points. Conley is only shooting 38% but averages 7.4 assists. Sexton and Malik Beasley combine for 26 points off the bench.

The Jazz are very strong offensively, ranking 4th in scoring. However, on the road they rank 10th. They are primarily a 3-point shooting team, ranking 4th in made 3’s per game. However, on the road they are just 17th in 3-point accuracy at 35%. They put up more 3’s than all but four teams.

Like most teams who shoot a ton of 3’s the Jazz don’t get fouled much, ranking 25th in free throws per play. They also turn the ball over a lot, ranking 25th. They are strong on the offensive glass, ranking 7th in offensive rebound percentage, so the Cavs’ wings and guards need to help on the defensive glass, especially on those long rebounds off missed 3’s.

cleaningtheglass.com has the Jazz 26th in shooting percentage at the rim and 4th on 3’s, so obviously they will be jacking up tons of 3’s rather than contend with the Cavs’ length inside.

Their game is to shoot from distance and grab the missed shots for second chance points. The key for the Cavs will be to contest the 3’s, force misses, and limit offensive boards.

Defensively the Jazz rank 24th in scoring. The defend the 3-point shot very well, ranking 6th. But they’re dead last in points allowed in the paint and defensive rebound percentage, which are somewhat related. They only rebound 72% of missed shots, so the Cavs should be able to score almost at will in the paint and get lots of put-backs. If Olynyk can’t play so much the better because he is easily their most physical big man.

The Cavs’ offensive strategy is simple - get dribble penetration against the league’s worst defense at defending the paint and crash the offensive glass for second chance points. I expect Garland, Mitchell, and LeVert will try to exploit 35-year-old Mike Conley who may not have the quickness to stay in front of them.

They should also try to wear him out, especially since Sexton is not available. They have no other point guards. Clarkson is listed as a point guard but he’s a shooting guard. Conley averages 29 minutes per game.

Clarkson had 39 points in 39 minutes in their overtime win over the Pelicans last week (Sexton was out) and I’m sure he’ll want to put on a show against his former team. Same for Lauri. And Donovan Mitchell will obviously be motivated to play against his old mates.

It should be really interesting because Lauri and Donovan will be going against guys they played with last year and know really well from going against them in practice hundreds of times. Everybody on the Cavs knows what Lauri likes to do and the same with the Jazz and Donovan.

Bottom line is the Cavs have been nearly unbeatable at home while the Jazz have struggled to a 6-10 road record. Whether Olynyk can play or not this should be a very winnable game for the Cavs, especially against the worst team in the league at defending the paint and controlling the defensive glass.
 
CBSSports has Olynyk out tonight, so I assume the rookie Walker takes his place in the starting lineup. He averages 6.4 points and 6 rebounds in 17 minutes. He only shoots 58% from the line, so better to foul than give him a dunk. He's 7'1", 245.

With Sexton and Olynyk out the Jazz are short 27 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 6.2 assists.
 
Other than watching this game for a Cavs win I really want to see Ochai Agbaji play and see what kind of baller he really is.
 
I’ve watched a bit of Utah just to see our old dudes. That coach is 10 points better than Jbb. We probably win, but whatever we win by, it likely should have been 10 more.
 
CBSSports has Olynyk out tonight, so I assume the rookie Walker takes his place in the starting lineup. He averages 6.4 points and 6 rebounds in 17 minutes. He only shoots 58% from the line, so better to foul than give him a dunk. He's 7'1", 245.

With Sexton and Olynyk out the Jazz are short 27 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 6.2 assists.

Heard that Walker Kessler has one of the best % at the rim of any center. I think he is right behind Brook Lopez. Paint might not be so wide open like we thought.
 
Garland bounce back game goes for 30 and 10 dimes and 4 threes
 
Heard that Walker Kessler has one of the best % at the rim of any center. I think he is right behind Brook Lopez. Paint might not be so wide open like we thought.
cleaningtheglass.com has him 3rd among bigs in block percentage behind Biyombo and Jared Jackson. Lopez is 4th. Walker is also a very good rebounder. He's playing behind Olynyk who is hitting 43% from deep whereas Walker does not shoot 3's at all.

So Utah should be better defensively tonight, at least in the paint, but worse offensively. They're mainly a 3-point team and Olynyk is their best 3-point shooter among their rotation players.

The other thing is Walker can't play 48 minutes so they'll probably have to use Udoka Azubuike, who has only played in garbage time this year.
 
Ok, the NBA season continues to attrit teams. We should win about 115-104. 70% chance.
 
cleaningtheglass.com has him 3rd among bigs in block percentage behind Biyombo and Jared Jackson. Lopez is 4th. Walker is also a very good rebounder. He's playing behind Olynyk who is hitting 43% from deep whereas Walker does not shoot 3's at all.

So Utah should be better defensively tonight, at least in the paint, but worse offensively. They're mainly a 3-point team and Olynyk is their best 3-point shooter among their rotation players.

The other thing is Walker can't play 48 minutes so they'll probably have to use Udoka Azubuike, who has only played in garbage time this year.

Yeah might be another game where the scouting report needs to get chucked out the window
 

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