- Joined
- Oct 3, 2019
- Messages
- 9,973
- Reaction score
- 28,640
- Points
- 135
The Cavaliers, fresh off a humiliating smackdown at the hands of the Warriors’ bench, stay home for the second night of a back-to-back and their final game of the season against the Milwaukee Bucks, who are tied for second place with Philadelphia in the East. The Bucks are 29-16 overall and 11-11 on the road.
The previous three games between these teams were won by the home team; the Bucks winning by 15 points both games in Milwaukee and the Cavs winning the most recent game by a 114-106 score in Cleveland. Giannis scored 45 points in that game but his next highest teammate only had 14. It looked like the Cavs decided to play him straight up and let him get his points but not set up his teammates. The result was 106 points for the Bucks and a Cavs win. None of Giannis’ 45 points was scored on a 3-point shot. That has to be extremely rare in the NBA.
Although the Cavs have the home court advantage and are 19-5 at home, they are playing on the second night of a back-to-back while the Bucks have had three days off, so this should be a very competitive game.
One factor in the Cavs’ favor is that the Bucks are last in the NBA in road scoring. They average 118.3 points per game at home against 106.7 on the road - the largest differential in the league. It’s hard to believe that a team with a 29-16 record is last in the league in road scoring, but it’s true. Also, the Cavaliers lead the league in home scoring defense at 105.7 points per game, so this game features the league’s best home defense against the worst road offense. That alone should give the Cavs a good shot to win if they can generate some offense.
It might come down to whether Donovan Mitchell can play. He scored 36 points in the win over the Bucks in December. Darius Garland played 40 minutes last night so he will need some help, especially going up against an elite defender like Jrue Holiday.
Giannis comes in averaging 31 points, 12 boards, and 5 assists while shooting 49% from the field and 28% on 3’s. He has not played in 11 days with a knee problem. Jrue Holiday has a line of 19/5/7. He scored 35 and 37 points the last two games with Giannis out. Brook Lopez averages 15 points and 6 rebounds while Grayson Allen averages 11 points. Bobby Portis averages 14 and 10 off the bench.
Despite Giannis’ ability to get to the rim the Bucks are 27th in points in the paint. Over 40% of their shots are 3’s, which ranks 5th. Basically Giannis ploughs his way to the bucket and if he gets stopped he kicks it out for a 3.
He also loves to throw himself into the defender. In the last game against the Cavs he took 16 free throws. The refs allow him to just barrel his way to the rim, knocking defenders out of the way, and most of the time the defender gets called for the foul even when Giannis initiates the contact. I find it frustrating to watch - Giannis body slamming a defender into the backboard support while getting an easy layup and the and-one.
The Bucks are not great 3-point shooters, ranking 18th in 3-point percentage. On the road they’re shooting 34% from deep. The way to defend Giannis might be for one guy to get in front of him and invite him to do a spin move then have Allen or Mobley ambush him to block or contest the layup. Or double him immediately, force him to give up the ball, and hope the 3-point shooter misses.
Defensively the Bucks are elite, ranking 3rd in scoring defense. They contest shots very well, ranking 2nd in opponents’ effective field goal percentage, 8th in 3-point percentage, 1st in free throw attempts per play, and 8th in defensive rebound percentage. The only area they don’t excel in is steals, where they rank 27th. It appears they don’t gamble but just try to contest the shot. Jrue Holiday is one of the league’s top defenders and they have a lot of length between Giannis, Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis.
So this has all the indications of a low scoring game. In the Cavs 114-106 win Mitchell had 36, Garland 23, and Allen 19. Six other Cavaliers chipped in with 6-9 points. If Mitchell is still out neither team might get to 100 points.
The Bucks starting lineup of Holiday, Jevon Carter, Allen, Giannis, and Lopez is a +16.9 which ranks as the 15th best 5-man unit in the league. The Cavaliers top unit of Mitchell, LeVert, Wade, Mobley, and Allen ranks 6th at +24.5 points per 100 possessions (per cleaningtheglass.com). The key is to keep the score close against their starting lineup and then push out to a lead against their reserves and hang on.
This would be a great game for the Cavs to win in order to erase the bad taste of that embarassing loss last night. JBB stated the team came out "soft and disrespectful" last night. I expect a lot more intensity from the start against the Bucks, who have had three days off and will be ready to go. Hopefully Donovan Mitchell can play and put up 36 points, because the Bucks are very tough defensively and we need every shooter we have.
The previous three games between these teams were won by the home team; the Bucks winning by 15 points both games in Milwaukee and the Cavs winning the most recent game by a 114-106 score in Cleveland. Giannis scored 45 points in that game but his next highest teammate only had 14. It looked like the Cavs decided to play him straight up and let him get his points but not set up his teammates. The result was 106 points for the Bucks and a Cavs win. None of Giannis’ 45 points was scored on a 3-point shot. That has to be extremely rare in the NBA.
Although the Cavs have the home court advantage and are 19-5 at home, they are playing on the second night of a back-to-back while the Bucks have had three days off, so this should be a very competitive game.
One factor in the Cavs’ favor is that the Bucks are last in the NBA in road scoring. They average 118.3 points per game at home against 106.7 on the road - the largest differential in the league. It’s hard to believe that a team with a 29-16 record is last in the league in road scoring, but it’s true. Also, the Cavaliers lead the league in home scoring defense at 105.7 points per game, so this game features the league’s best home defense against the worst road offense. That alone should give the Cavs a good shot to win if they can generate some offense.
It might come down to whether Donovan Mitchell can play. He scored 36 points in the win over the Bucks in December. Darius Garland played 40 minutes last night so he will need some help, especially going up against an elite defender like Jrue Holiday.
Giannis comes in averaging 31 points, 12 boards, and 5 assists while shooting 49% from the field and 28% on 3’s. He has not played in 11 days with a knee problem. Jrue Holiday has a line of 19/5/7. He scored 35 and 37 points the last two games with Giannis out. Brook Lopez averages 15 points and 6 rebounds while Grayson Allen averages 11 points. Bobby Portis averages 14 and 10 off the bench.
Despite Giannis’ ability to get to the rim the Bucks are 27th in points in the paint. Over 40% of their shots are 3’s, which ranks 5th. Basically Giannis ploughs his way to the bucket and if he gets stopped he kicks it out for a 3.
He also loves to throw himself into the defender. In the last game against the Cavs he took 16 free throws. The refs allow him to just barrel his way to the rim, knocking defenders out of the way, and most of the time the defender gets called for the foul even when Giannis initiates the contact. I find it frustrating to watch - Giannis body slamming a defender into the backboard support while getting an easy layup and the and-one.
The Bucks are not great 3-point shooters, ranking 18th in 3-point percentage. On the road they’re shooting 34% from deep. The way to defend Giannis might be for one guy to get in front of him and invite him to do a spin move then have Allen or Mobley ambush him to block or contest the layup. Or double him immediately, force him to give up the ball, and hope the 3-point shooter misses.
Defensively the Bucks are elite, ranking 3rd in scoring defense. They contest shots very well, ranking 2nd in opponents’ effective field goal percentage, 8th in 3-point percentage, 1st in free throw attempts per play, and 8th in defensive rebound percentage. The only area they don’t excel in is steals, where they rank 27th. It appears they don’t gamble but just try to contest the shot. Jrue Holiday is one of the league’s top defenders and they have a lot of length between Giannis, Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis.
So this has all the indications of a low scoring game. In the Cavs 114-106 win Mitchell had 36, Garland 23, and Allen 19. Six other Cavaliers chipped in with 6-9 points. If Mitchell is still out neither team might get to 100 points.
The Bucks starting lineup of Holiday, Jevon Carter, Allen, Giannis, and Lopez is a +16.9 which ranks as the 15th best 5-man unit in the league. The Cavaliers top unit of Mitchell, LeVert, Wade, Mobley, and Allen ranks 6th at +24.5 points per 100 possessions (per cleaningtheglass.com). The key is to keep the score close against their starting lineup and then push out to a lead against their reserves and hang on.
This would be a great game for the Cavs to win in order to erase the bad taste of that embarassing loss last night. JBB stated the team came out "soft and disrespectful" last night. I expect a lot more intensity from the start against the Bucks, who have had three days off and will be ready to go. Hopefully Donovan Mitchell can play and put up 36 points, because the Bucks are very tough defensively and we need every shooter we have.
Last edited:
